sma10 wrote:Not sure how it pans out in the long haul, but i have the 144hr about 100miles sw of previous run. Can anyone with better skills than i confirm this?
Around there. Stronger ridging accompanied by a weaker trough.
ATL: IRMA - Models
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Around there. Stronger ridging accompanied by a weaker trough.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I think we are close to reaching a critical tipping point for the GFS here at hour 150.
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That ridge is just too strong. I can't see any northward jog at all for Irma to make at hour 138-144.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
northjaxpro wrote:That ridge is just too strong. I can't see any northward jog at all for Irma to make at hour 138-144.
Not buying that either, too strong of a ridge.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
The ridge is strong and that trough is going to cut off. This should end up much different than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GFS is trending similar to the Euro, stronger ridging to its north, trough over the MS river valley having a tough progressing towards the east.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Still up dispatching...and watching this in terror. Also interesting that there is no Jose on this run.
Last edited by Hurricane Andrew on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I can't say I am that surprised, I was however hoping to see some weakness in the hopes of an escape route, but also knowing better,
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
RL3AO wrote:A not so subtle westward shift in the trough and ridge.
could high pressure block a trof ?
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hour 168...here comes the trough being cutoff.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
If anything, you can see how the ridge axis is building westward very clearly late in the run. The axis is extending into the Eastern GOM. Not good at all. GFS is definitely caving on to the EURO solution.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Trend
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2017 0 17.4N 35.2W 959 71
1200UTC 01.09.2017 12 18.0N 37.5W 961 71
0000UTC 02.09.2017 24 18.6N 39.7W 963 75
1200UTC 02.09.2017 36 18.8N 42.4W 963 72
0000UTC 03.09.2017 48 18.6N 45.2W 965 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 60 18.0N 47.8W 962 76
0000UTC 04.09.2017 72 17.2N 49.7W 941 84
1200UTC 04.09.2017 84 16.8N 51.6W 943 80
0000UTC 05.09.2017 96 16.9N 53.6W 948 77
1200UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.4N 55.5W 947 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 120 18.6N 57.6W 937 89
1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
0000UTC 07.09.2017 144 21.7N 62.3W 936 87
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2017 0 17.4N 35.2W 959 71
1200UTC 01.09.2017 12 18.0N 37.5W 961 71
0000UTC 02.09.2017 24 18.6N 39.7W 963 75
1200UTC 02.09.2017 36 18.8N 42.4W 963 72
0000UTC 03.09.2017 48 18.6N 45.2W 965 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 60 18.0N 47.8W 962 76
0000UTC 04.09.2017 72 17.2N 49.7W 941 84
1200UTC 04.09.2017 84 16.8N 51.6W 943 80
0000UTC 05.09.2017 96 16.9N 53.6W 948 77
1200UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.4N 55.5W 947 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 120 18.6N 57.6W 937 89
1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
0000UTC 07.09.2017 144 21.7N 62.3W 936 87
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
We are starting to get much better agreement from the models now inside 7 days. GFS is much further south, trending towards the Euro as expected.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Maybe not from a scientific perspective, but that is what I was attempting to say a page or so back.
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