ATL: IRMA - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1841 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:25 pm

Siker wrote:HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2017 0 17.4N 35.2W 959 71
1200UTC 01.09.2017 12 18.0N 37.5W 961 71
0000UTC 02.09.2017 24 18.6N 39.7W 963 75
1200UTC 02.09.2017 36 18.8N 42.4W 963 72
0000UTC 03.09.2017 48 18.6N 45.2W 965 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 60 18.0N 47.8W 962 76
0000UTC 04.09.2017 72 17.2N 49.7W 941 84
1200UTC 04.09.2017 84 16.8N 51.6W 943 80
0000UTC 05.09.2017 96 16.9N 53.6W 948 77
1200UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.4N 55.5W 947 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 120 18.6N 57.6W 937 89
1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
0000UTC 07.09.2017 144 21.7N 62.3W 936 87


Those are WAY LOW numbers for the UKMET!!! :double:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1842 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:26 pm

I'm heading out for the night. I'm guessing a New Jersey/Long Island landfall on this one.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1843 Postby TJRE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:26 pm

At 924mb at this point of the run,
i think she will make her own rules.....just sayin
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_31.png
Last edited by TJRE on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1844 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:26 pm

The ridge is displaying that trough. It looks like it backs SW on this run very similar to Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1845 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:27 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm heading out for the night. I'm guessing a New Jersey/Long Island landfall on this one.

Why do you hate me? :eek: :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1846 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:28 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I'm heading out for the night. I'm guessing a New Jersey/Long Island landfall on this one.

Why do you hate me? :eek: :lol:


Agreed :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1847 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:29 pm

About time BLP where have you been your missing all the action Lol.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1848 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:29 pm

For those who care about such things, the CMC is much further SW ... sitting over Andros Island at 210hr
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1849 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:30 pm

CMC trend :double:
Image
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1850 Postby joey » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm

sma10 wrote:For those who care about such things, the CMC is much further SW ... sitting in the central bahamas at 186 hr


same as the euro heading u know where :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1851 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:CMC trend :double:
Image

That's the GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1852 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm

Major shift west in CMC approaching SFLA landfall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1853 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:32 pm

CMC is about to wreck Monroe and Dade Counties at hour 210...in lockstep with the 12z Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1854 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:32 pm

From my untrained eye, is that HP pushing down and pinching off the weakness to the west?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1855 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:33 pm

Also remember when tropical cyclones get this powerful as being displayed in the models with Irma, often these powerful cyclones can "pump the ridge" and the cyclone will create its own environment. I think we're seeing that here in both the Euro and now the GFS run tonight early. Irma will get so powerful and it will be getting larger with The eyewall replacements that we're anticipating as it traverses westbound . A perfect example of pumping the ridge we may be seeing here in here and in the days to come.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1856 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Luis should be happy with this Euro run.

1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1857 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:From my untrained eye, is that HP pushing down and pinching off the weakness to the west?


Hi Dave, it does looks like it it will block it or weaken it. This looks like a Carolina run IMO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1858 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:36 pm

Landfall
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1859 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:36 pm

Nimbus wrote:Luis should be happy with this Euro run.

1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82


Don't you mean UKMET?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1860 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:37 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Landfall
Image


Homestead...25 years later!!!
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