ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

The merging eyewall looks like it's on the verge of maxing out the microwave scale

[1900hurricane]

The eye is really torching now based on pretty much any IR/WV band you can pick on GOES-16.

[bp92]

This almost feels like we're getting all the storms we didn't get in 2013-15 due to the poor upper-level conditions.

So now that we don't have the shear anymore these systems have ridiculously warm water to feed off of.

And, as it was mentioned, we're getting cat.5s in the Atlantic and eastern Caribbean. If I'm not wrong, all sub-910mb storms in the Atlantic other than Labor Day '35 (and now Maria) peaked in either the western Carribean or the Gulf of Mexico.

Once systems start reaching that area (and upper-level conditions allow it), things are going to get even crazier. And, unlike Jose, there's no way stroms over there will get away without hitting anything.

Hopefully I'm wrong...

[Hurrilurker]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

If that is legit, the intensity could be 170 kt. Would be a basin record.

That's basically high-end F3 tornado wind speeds, only much larger and lasting much longer.

[johngaltfla]

The eye is really torching now based on pretty much any IR/WV band you can pick on GOES-16.

I'm watching it. Refreshing it. And wonder where the Pacific Ocean is in the picture. THIS storm looks more like a WestPac typhoon than an Atlantic Hurricane. God help those poor people down there.

[tolakram]

Watch the eye warm on the low level water vapor loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-10-200-1-10

[dizzyfish]

Having Irma very fresh in my mind I am feeling absolutely terrified for the Islanders in the path of Maria.

I am astounded by what we are seeing. It just goes against all I have learned over the years. How is this possible?

God bless all.

[PandaCitrus]

It's going to be very close but looking more possible based on that long radar loop that st. Croix will narrowly miss the northern eyewall with the Cat 5 winds. They may get Cat 2/3 winds. Its going to be razor close. Wobble watching all evening. 10 miles or less margin for error between total destruction and moderate damage.

[dukeblue219]

The plane is probably in the eye right this moment. The last datapoint at 7:35PM shows 931mb with 142kt flight level winds (west or nw area of eyewall).

[hurricanes1234]

Well would you look at those cloud tops...

[Aric Dunn]

That is one of the most perfect donut's I have ever seen on radar..

[EquusStorm]

Honestly, the most violent looking Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era imo.

[Hurrilurker]

It's going to be very close but looking more possible based on that long radar loop that st. Croix will narrowly miss the northern eyewall with the Cat 5 winds. They may get Cat 2/3 winds. Its going to be razor close. Wobble watching all evening. 10 miles or less margin for error between total destruction and moderate damage.

They're going to get a ton of storm surge though. Like I said earlier, it's likely the airport (south side of island, right on water, near 0 elevation) will be completely submerged along with much of the southern coast.

[stephen23]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

If that is legit, the intensity could be 170 kt. Would be a basin record.

That's basically high-end F3 tornado wind speeds, only much larger and lasting much longer.

That would be equivalent to an EF-4 on new enhanced scale

[Texas Snowman]

Unreal few weeks of weather in the tropics.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have no words left.....

[JaxGator]

Irma has really expanded in size and so have the width of the hurricane force winds according to Recon. Man these dropsonde readings are incredible..

[EquusStorm]

If that is legit, the intensity could be 170 kt. Would be a basin record.

That's basically high-end F3 tornado wind speeds, only much larger and lasting much longer.

That would be equivalent to an EF-4 on new enhanced scale

And the EF scale winds are based on three-second gusts, while this is based on one minute sustained... terrifying, really

[abajan]

Could this close off a CDG ring and head off into insanity in terms of intensity?

Maybe "insanity" should be used instead of "intensity", when hurricanes get this strong. For instance, we would ask "What insanity did Irma reach?"

[Hypercane_Kyle]

905.7mb found

Looks like Dean's place is up next on the chopping board.