ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

IRMA"s motion is like a rolling tire going down a hill hitting small objects and bouncing up and over them but over all its still going down..

Does this not change downstream repercussions though? If the consensus has Irma bottoming out tomorrow night at 16.4, but instead only bottoms out at 17.4 would that not imply changes in the W Atlantic?

[psyclone]

I can't understand why all these models immediately strengthen Irma there minute they start running. Itma is choking on dry air, and is entirely surrounded. The CDO is tiny because dry air is stripping the banding, and I doubt that this is even a category 3 at all. I haven't seen a single post in the past 2 pages about Irma, just meaningless cone speculation and model speculation.

A.) it's in the middle of the ocean.
B.) it looks decent and should improve as it encounters warmer waters (although I'll acknowledge I expected the storm to be a bit bigger by now)

I'd say the content on here is solid but feel free to meaningfully contribute and influence it as you see fit.

[jconsor]

Larry - According to this map http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... _large.png,
there are numerous members south of 18N at 48.4W.

**Edit: A bit after posting this analysis, I realized I had an error in it that makes it flat out wrong. For my follow up posts detailing my error, please go to the next page of this thread.**

The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members!! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward. That means increased risks for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, PR, and the entire NE Caribbean. This also means the risk for FL, Bahamas, Hispaniola (especially Dominican Republic), Cuba (especially eastern), and the US GOM coast is continuing to increase as the SW trends continue.

[Aric Dunn]

IRMA"s motion is like a rolling tire going down a hill hitting small objects and bouncing up and over them but over all its still going down..

Does this not change downstream repercussions though? If the consensus has Irma bottoming out tomorrow night at 16.4, but instead only bottoms out at 17.4 would that not imply changes in the W Atlantic?

yes... but that's what we dont know. the ridging could flatten out and instead of a wsw motion its just a longer west motion leading to the same thing..

[Siker]

I can't understand why all these models immediately strengthen Irma there minute they start running. Itma is choking on dry air, and is entirely surrounded. The CDO is tiny because dry air is stripping the banding, and I doubt that this is even a category 3 at all. I haven't seen a single post in the past 2 pages about Irma, just meaningless cone speculation and model speculation.

This again? The past two pages are full of posts concerning Irma's present movement because that is of great importance to those in the islands. That's about Irma currently, what are you looking for?

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.

There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I count 3 GIFS and 2 linked floaters on the two pages preceding the current . Definitely some -removed-, also some paranoia, I think that's par for the course on any weather forum unfortunately.

[gatorcane]

Seems like IRMA is starting to grow in size. Looks at Western CDO expand:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

This again? The past two pages are full of posts concerning Irma's present movement because that is of great importance to those in the islands. That's about Irma currently, what are you looking for?

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.

There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I count 3 GIFS and 2 linked floaters on the two pages preceding the current . Definitely some -removed-, also some paranoia, I think that's par for the course on any weather forum unfortunately.

there is also what I said.... we have a lack of data right now.. nothing to mention that was not mentioned in the NHC discussion. only watching the wobbles at the moment.

[eastcoastFL]

I haven't been able to look at any Sat photos or graphics today. Has anyone noticed if she's grown in size at all today?

Since we are so far out I'm not so interested in landfall as I am about the size of the storm at the moment. If it grows as large as models are predicting it can have significant effects well away from the center of the storm.

[sma10]

IRMA"s motion is like a rolling tire going down a hill hitting small objects and bouncing up and over them but over all its still going down..

Does this not change downstream repercussions though? If the consensus has Irma bottoming out tomorrow night at 16.4, but instead only bottoms out at 17.4 would that not imply changes in the W Atlantic?

yes... but that's what we dont know. the ridging could flatten out and instead of a wsw motion its just a longer west motion leading to the same thing..

Good point. So it would be premature to assume that, if Irma were not to acquire as much southerly motion as first anticipated, this would necessarily lead to early recurvature.

[eastcoastFL]

I can't understand why all these models immediately strengthen Irma there minute they start running. Itma is choking on dry air, and is entirely surrounded. The CDO is tiny because dry air is stripping the banding, and I doubt that this is even a category 3 at all. I haven't seen a single post in the past 2 pages about Irma, just meaningless cone speculation and model speculation.

This again? The past two pages are full of posts concerning Irma's present movement because that is of great importance to those in the islands. That's about Irma currently, what are you looking for?

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.

There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I don't quite understand why anyone would want this. I'd much rather wishcast it far away from where I live. People should be careful what they wish for. Look at Houston right now! Who wants that?

A fast moving TS or cat 1 might be fun to sit through but nobody should be wishing to have a major cane head their way!

[Aric Dunn]

lol I just a song pop in my head for possibility of irma pumping up the ridge as she grows in size and strength. yes im a little weird... lol

Pump up the ridge, pump it up
While you feet are stompin'
And the storm is pumpin'
Look at here the crowd is jumpin'
Pump it up a little more
Get the hurricane going through the trough door
Seek us that's where the hurricanes at
And you'll find out if you're too bad (off)

[Evenstar]

I can't understand why all these models immediately strengthen Irma there minute they start running. Itma is choking on dry air, and is entirely surrounded. The CDO is tiny because dry air is stripping the banding, and I doubt that this is even a category 3 at all. I haven't seen a single post in the past 2 pages about Irma, just meaningless cone speculation and model speculation.

This again? The past two pages are full of posts concerning Irma's present movement because that is of great importance to those in the islands. That's about Irma currently, what are you looking for?

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.

There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

Oy vey. Here we go...

[Aric Dunn]

and the wsw motion as resumed ..
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Happy Pelican]

IRMA"s motion is like a rolling tire going down a hill hitting small objects and bouncing up and over them but over all its still going down..

Love the analogy, my friend

[utweather]

This again? The past two pages are full of posts concerning Irma's present movement because that is of great importance to those in the islands. That's about Irma currently, what are you looking for?

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.

There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I don't quite understand why anyone would want this. I'd much rather wishcast it far away from where I live. People should be careful what they wish for. Look at Houston right now! Who wants that?

A fast moving TS or cat 1 might be fun to sit through but nobody should be wishing to have a major cane head their way!

Yeah I've noticed that too. Perhaps its a form of hypochondria??? The results of the fear if they were to materialize are very real.

[SFLcane]

and the wsw motion as resumed ..
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

Indeed Aric..

[Evenstar]

lol I just a song pop in my head for possibility of irma pumping up the ridge as she grows in size and strength. yes im a little weird... lol

Pump up the ridge, pump it up
While you feet are stompin'
And the storm is pumpin'
Look at here the crowd is jumpin'
Pump it up a little more
Get the hurricane going through the trough door
Seek us that's where the hurricanes at
And you'll find out if you're too bad (off)

I see what you did there. Someone needs to kick Irma out da club...

[cycloneye]

Sunday's TCPOD is loaded with plenty of missions from Air Force and NOAA. Gonzo will also be up on Monday and Wednesday to sample the upper atmosphere.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT SUN 03 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-094

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IRMA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74         FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 04/1730Z                   A. 05/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0311A IRMA           B. NOAA9 0411A IRMA
       C. 04/1430Z                   C. 04/1730Z
       D. 16.5N 53.2W                D. NA
       E. 04/1700Z TO 04/2030Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42       FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 75
       A. 04/2100Z                   A. 04/2330Z,05/0530Z
       B  NOAA2 0511A IRMA           B. AFXXX 0611A IRMA
       C. 04/2000Z                   C. 04/2045Z
       D. 16.4N 53.9W                D. 16.1N 54.3W
       E. 04/2045Z TO 05/0200Z       E. 04/2300Z TO 05/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42        FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 76
       A. 05/0900Z                   A. 05/1130Z,05/1730Z
       B  NOAA2 0711A IRMA           B. AFXXX 0811A IRMA
       C. 05/0800Z                   C. 05/0915Z
       D. 16.6N 56.2W                D. 16.7N 56.6W
       E. 05/0845Z TO 05/1400Z       E. 05/1100Z TO 05/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
       A. CONTINUE C-130 6-HRLY FIXES ON IRMA.
       B. A NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
          FOR 06/0000Z, DEPARTING TBPB AT 05/1730Z.
       C. PROBABLE NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO IRMA,
          DEPARTING TBPB AT 05/2000Z.

[Happy Pelican]

This again? The past two pages are full of posts concerning Irma's present movement because that is of great importance to those in the islands. That's about Irma currently, what are you looking for?

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.




There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I don't quite understand why anyone would want this. I'd much rather wishcast it far away from where I live. People should be careful what they wish for. Look at Houston right now! Who wants that?

A fast moving TS or cat 1 might be fun to sit through but nobody should be wishing to have a major cane head their way!

Absolutely. I know many members have experienced the aftermath of a hurricane or other natural disaster and there was a time (pre-Sandy), I loved the excitement and adrenaline of tracking a storm but I also never experienced recovering from one either. Stop with the -removed- please, unless you're wishing for Irma to spare all life and property and go safely out to sea. This is really scary for many of us. Honestly, I don't think my husband survive another disaster here and the thought of my little boy living in another disaster area makes me physically ill.

Sorry to get personal but sometime I think people need a gentle and very real reminder of what exactly they're wishing for.

[LarryWx]

Larry - According to this map http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... _large.png,
there are numerous members south of 18N at 48.4W.

**Edit: A bit after posting this analysis, I realized I had an error in it that makes it flat out wrong. For my follow up posts detailing my error, please go to the next page of this thread.**

The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members!! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward. That means increased risks for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, PR, and the entire NE Caribbean. This also means the risk for FL, Bahamas, Hispaniola (especially Dominican Republic), Cuba (especially eastern), and the US GOM coast is continuing to increase as the SW trends continue.

jconsor,
Yeah, I now realize that and that makes my original analysis, which assumed no members were south of 18N at 48.4W, wrong. The mistake was that I thought that the 18N line was at 20N because I was erroneously assuming that the lat-long boxes were 5 x 5 degrees instead of 3 x 5 degrees.