ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Pressure keeps dropping.

233600 1659N 06416W 6998 02349 9142 +170 +159 011064 107 146 027 03
233630 1658N 06415W 6956 02364 9083 +196 +140 019015 044 /// /// 03
233700 1658N 06413W 6980 02327 9061 +219 +119 123009 011 /// /// 03
233730 1658N 06411W 6965 02339 9057 +216 +115 173015 023 /// /// 03
233800 1657N 06410W 6970 02335 9078 +193 +133 227046 054 /// /// 03
233830 1655N 06411W 6960 02362 9111 +175 +146 250068 077 084 009 00
233900 1654N 06412W 6978 02387 9149 +175 +147 262105 112 124 016 03
233930 1654N 06413W 6977 02424 9235 +159 +159 268118 128 135 040 00
234000 1653N 06413W 6969 02479 9287 +156 +156 274130 134 136 040 00

[gfsperpendicular]

MARIA
MARA I
MAA IR
AA IRM
A IRMA

I see you Irma. Now stop. We've had enough.

[flamingosun]

I am wondering if this is what happens in near zero shear environments. Storms like Floyd and Rita that underwent eyewall replacements and weakened also were undergoing about 15 kts of shear at the time. I almost wonder if the weakening is more shear related?

Wow! Thank you for posting that. I wondered the same thing myself, but didn't dare post it, because I don't have the kind of expertise to wonder such things with any intelligent underpinnings for said wonderings.

[RL3AO]

Next flight arrives in about 3 hours. We'll see how it looks then.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we are down to 906 now...could we be sub-900 by the time the next plane gets there?

[SunnyThoughts]

905.7 extrap

[Dean_175]

Irma has really expanded in size and so have the width of the hurricane force winds according to Recon. Man these dropsonde readings are incredible..

You mean Maria but yeah- that's really not good- larger wind swath means more surface area for damage. This could really devastating for Puerto Rico

[gfsperpendicular]

IDK if this has already been posted, but J. Morgerman is chasing this one in PR:



Edit: Although, it appears he'll miss it - he's about 10 days late

[supercane4867]

Next flight arrives in about 3 hours. We'll see how it looks then.

If pressure continues to fall at the rate of 3-4mb/hr we have seen, sub-900mb is certainly possible.

[Aric Dunn]

by far one of the most intense eyewalls I have ever seen on radar. that is just crazy.

[Aric Dunn]

with that large very deep spiral band still connected to the eye.. dont see why it would weaken.. the ERC still not really progessing..

that large spiral band is very intense too and just feeding the eyewall.. impressive..

[Raebie]

I'm afraid St. Croix is just going to be gone.

[floridasun78]

this could go as wrost season long time with all strong hurr hitting land this big mess

[JaxGator]

Irma has really expanded in size and so have the width of the hurricane force winds according to Recon. Man these dropsonde readings are incredible..

You mean Maria but yeah- that's really not good- larger wind swath means more surface area for damage. This could really devastating for Puerto Rico

Oh man, thanks. still have Irma fatigue.. You're right on those points and yeah it doesn't look good for Puerto Rico at all and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Maria is a monster.

[flamingosun]

This is sickening, I have a much more hopeless feeling than when it hits the US where people can get out of the way. This has been a horrible season.

I fear what we will see tomorrow night in the USVI and Puerto Rico. I hope Cycloneye is safe.

As do we all. What horrific prospects are facing the folks down there! An extra prayer or two for PR and the VIs sure wouldn't hurt.

[gfsperpendicular]

You can tell how busy the NHC has been with MARIA when the JOSE snippet and the TWO have been copy-pasted for 24 hours straight

[Alyono]

pressure may have rose 1 mb on this last pass

[Hammy]

Pressure's up to 911mb on the last pass, NHC still 909.

[1900hurricane]

The warmer area in the NW CDO is a little weird. It's been pretty consistent the past hour or two. I wonder if it's a symptom of the almost but not quite outer eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

They wen twith 911mb.. where is the Dropsonde.. must have had some winds maybe missed the center on the drop..