ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

look by 8pm models will gave us best data long time we better forecast the gulf stream plane half way to irma now

[floridasun78]

Looking at all the data I'd make the guess that this will be similar to Frances of 2004 but maybe somewhat stronger at landfall.

I don't think it is going to slow down and that will allow for it to make landfall in Florida.

no one safe tooo early say fl safe

[otowntiger]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

[Blown Away]

[floridasun78]

no safe please dont post anyone safe no know yet i see few post say fl safe unless you work for nhc we dont know let see nhc say

[Blown Away]

Looks SW again... Irma looks like she is accelerating...

[AxaltaRacing24]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

It shouldn't matter if it's a bit weak right now. If it finds the right conditions in this water than it can RI whenever it wants.

[AdamFirst]

Looking at all the data I'd make the guess that this will be similar to Frances of 2004 but maybe somewhat stronger at landfall.

I don't think it is going to slow down and that will allow for it to make landfall in Florida.

I'm getting that feeling too. I remember the NHC track guidance of turning up the coast for both Frances and Jeanne in 2004 but both managed to get inland over Florida before ultimately hooking north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Kingarabian]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

Continued dry air problems judging by its appearance on microwave imagery.

[Hammy]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

Continued dry air problems judging by its appearance on microwave imagery.

Could be a bit of mid-level northerly shear as well--if you look at the convection on the edge of the cirrus canopy, some of it appears that it's blowing south.

[jedsshed]

According to "the closest point of approach", Irma will be very close to the NE Caribbean Islands (Anguilla, St. Maarten, etc.) within 3 days. Based on previous track adjustments, how far do you think this storm could move north (or south) in the short 3 day time period remaining?

[Aric Dunn]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

Continued dry air problems judging by its appearance on microwave imagery.

Could be a bit of mid-level northerly shear as well--if you look at the convection on the edge of the cirrus canopy, some of it appears that it's blowing south.

yes. the models actually showed this but its mostly the steering mechanism that will point the direction where this is going right now.

[invest man]

So what is Joe B saying? A Florida then Carolina strike?

[Kingarabian]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

Continued dry air problems judging by its appearance on microwave imagery.

Could be a bit of mid-level northerly shear as well--if you look at the convection on the edge of the cirrus canopy, some of it appears that it's blowing south.

Correct. And Levi Cowan talked about yesterday in his video. He said that Irma will potentially be in a shearing zone because the low level flow is competing with the upper level flow, where the lower level flow is trying to push the hurricane WNW and the high pressure is trying to push the hurricane WSW, so naturally there's a difference in wind direction and strength which would equate to wind shear.

[psyclone]

Something is keeping it in check. Nevertheless it's an impressive storm moving into warmer water, expected to increase in size and strength by the NHC and models and it's early September. I'd bet on some increase in strength and size over the next 2 or 3 days.

[Blown Away]

So what is Joe B saying? A Florida then Carolina strike?

From Joe B's twitter... About covers all the bases...

[Kazmit]

So what's up with current condition of Irma? She does seem to have some dry air issues, is that correct? Is she weaker now than forecasted? And if so I presume intensity forecasts down the line would be affected??? Or is she still on track to be the monster the models have been advertising?

Dry air issues should be temporary. It still has a lot of potential to be a real monster in a few days.

[Extratropical94]

The first mission of many into Irma has begun.

URNT15 KWBC 031921
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 01 20170903
191130 1304N 05929W 0005 00112 0134 +284 +214 086005 007 /// /// 03
191200 1304N 05927W 9803 00294 0133 +260 +218 066005 006 /// /// 03
191230 1305N 05926W 9649 00435 0138 +246 +216 057004 004 /// /// 03
191300 1305N 05924W 9428 00639 0136 +234 +198 039000 003 /// /// 03
191330 1306N 05922W 9163 00887 0134 +221 +181 245006 007 /// /// 03
191400 1306N 05920W 8882 01158 0133 +206 +172 257007 008 /// /// 03
191430 1307N 05918W 8614 01422 0131 +191 +159 244006 007 /// /// 03
191500 1308N 05916W 8324 01715 0129 +177 +148 236008 009 /// /// 03
191530 1308N 05914W 8141 01906 0128 +166 +130 240009 009 /// /// 03
191600 1309N 05912W 7861 02204 0123 +164 +042 261008 009 /// /// 03
191630 1309N 05910W 7669 02413 0123 +156 -044 285007 007 /// /// 03
191700 1310N 05908W 7485 02618 0118 +141 +036 303009 010 /// /// 03
191730 1310N 05906W 7302 02827 0115 +133 -004 307008 008 /// /// 03
191800 1311N 05904W 7147 03008 0116 +122 -035 313008 008 /// /// 03
191830 1312N 05901W 6980 03206 0117 +108 -029 332008 009 /// /// 03
191900 1312N 05859W 6836 03378 0110 +103 -060 338008 008 /// /// 03
191930 1313N 05857W 6709 03534 0109 +096 -118 342009 009 /// /// 03
192000 1313N 05855W 6548 03734 0108 +083 -101 015010 010 /// /// 03
192030 1314N 05853W 6439 03872 0113 +071 -116 012009 010 /// /// 03
192100 1315N 05851W 6335 04005 0114 +061 -105 007007 008 /// /// 03

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 031931
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 02 20170903
192130 1315N 05849W 6222 04153 0115 +050 -095 022006 007 /// /// 03
192200 1316N 05847W 6090 04328 0112 +039 -073 038007 008 /// /// 03
192230 1316N 05845W 5987 04467 0104 +034 -052 030009 010 /// /// 03
192300 1317N 05842W 5887 04604 0108 +024 -083 039010 010 /// /// 03
192330 1317N 05840W 5782 04748 0113 +014 -116 045014 015 /// /// 03
192400 1318N 05838W 5678 04891 0103 +009 -113 047017 018 /// /// 03
192430 1319N 05836W 5610 04992 0098 +006 -143 050016 017 /// /// 03
192500 1319N 05834W 5502 05148 0096 -001 -176 043018 018 /// /// 03
192530 1320N 05832W 5431 05248 0290 -008 -197 040019 020 000 000 03
192600 1320N 05830W 5368 05343 0297 -014 -203 041019 020 /// /// 03
192630 1321N 05828W 5276 05481 0305 -023 -242 041020 020 /// /// 03
192700 1321N 05826W 5205 05590 0312 -031 -250 039020 021 /// /// 03
192730 1322N 05824W 5121 05716 0320 -039 -242 039018 019 /// /// 03
192800 1323N 05822W 5046 05833 0327 -049 -272 037017 017 /// /// 03
192830 1323N 05820W 4973 05948 0334 -058 -231 035017 017 003 000 00
192900 1324N 05817W 4900 06065 0340 -065 -239 037016 017 004 001 00
192930 1324N 05815W 4853 06138 0343 -070 -248 040016 016 003 000 00
193000 1325N 05813W 4847 06144 0341 -071 -249 041016 016 005 001 03
193030 1325N 05811W 4847 06142 0340 -068 -258 041016 016 006 000 00
193100 1326N 05808W 4847 06142 0339 -066 -274 042015 017 006 000 00

[Langinbang187]

Honestly was expecting Irma to look a lot more impressive at this point in time... She's not looking too hot this afternoon for a major hurricane.