ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

ADT up to 7.1 now. Look at all these gray

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 922.1mb/143.0kt

[toto]

Big 7.1 quake in Mexico.
Damage in Mexico City.

https://earthquake-report.com/2017/09/1 ... r-19-2017/

I hope that and Maria doesn't destabilize the Carib Plate.

I almost just posted the same thing. There have been studies that suggest a causal relationship between low pressures during hurricanes and the triggering of earthquakes. Of course it could be coincidental, but it's worth considering due to the proximity of Maria to the southern boundary of the Caribbean plate and the earthquake which was just to the north of it. That would be very interesting to look at.

Also worth noting that Mexico had an 8.1 quake September 8th just off its pacific coast (very close to Caribbean plate boundry) as Irma was a Cat 5 in the Carribean (at that time north of Puerto Rico).

Interestingly, the big 8.0 Mexico City earthquake of 1985 happened right around the same time as Hurricane Gloria began to intensify.

Regardless, these tragedies are human tragedies and my heart goes out to the people affected in Mexico and the Caribbean.

There were two earthquakes along the path of crazy Hurricane Ivan...
one in the Caribbean and one in the SE US.

.

[mrbagyo]

this cane looks scarier than Irma - yikes
Though pretty unlikely, I still hope it weakens big time before coming ashore.

[jdjaguar]

I'm afraid St. Croix is just going to be gone.

Please don't say that.

I have a close friend from college who did not evacuate and is riding it out alone
With her 4 dogs...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/910284590383812610

[HDGator]

Maria seems to be on rails towards the TJUA NEXRAD site in PR. Does anyone know what wind speed these are designed to withstand?

Any chance Maria poses a threat to the radar site?

[loro-rojo]

Maria seems to be on rails towards the TJUA NEXRAD site in PR. Does anyone know what wind speed these are designed to withstand?

Any chance Maria poses a threat to the radar site?

I doubt there is anything in this island designed and/or built to withstand this storm.

[Hugo1989]

UGH... My cousins just told me that they are riding out the storm in Palmas del Mar in Humacao, PR.

Oh no, that is right on the water!!! Do they live there?

I know a lot of people who stayed in their homes along the cost from Humacao through Patillas, Guayama, etc. I also heard of people who are living in beach houses and never were asked to evacuate.

[abajan]

UGH... My cousins just told me that they are riding out the storm in Palmas del Mar in Humacao, PR.

Oh no, that is right on the water!!! Do they live there?

Yep.

We've told them to come to San Juan with the rest of us but they are too stubborn.

You need to tell them that they are going to die, and then put the phone down. You have to be that blunt with some people to impress upon them the seriousness of the situation.

[Evenstar]

yeah thats crazy.. and not good..

200 kt at 850 would be about 160-170 kt at the surface.

not necessarily. if you have been following my posts. 850mb for intense hurricanes is what to look at. here..

updated recently. from 12z hwrf run I will update for this run shortly. but you can see the 850 mb winds verify with recon and offical. This has held true for irma and harvey.

pretty much once a system reaches hurricane intensity the likelihood of the 850mb hwrf winds being accurate is very high as those winds in intense hurricanes more often than not translate to the surface as you can see in the plot.

Dayum, Aric! You went all science-y there!

(Learning science-y stuff is yet another reason I skulk around in here every season...)

[gtalum]

Maria seems to be on rails towards the TJUA NEXRAD site in PR. Does anyone know what wind speed these are designed to withstand?

Any chance Maria poses a threat to the radar site?

I doubt there is anything in this island designed and/or built to withstand this storm.

I dunno, I suspect the forts will come through okay.

[loro-rojo]

Oh no, that is right on the water!!! Do they live there?

Yep.

We've told them to come to San Juan with the rest of us but they are too stubborn.

You need to tell them that they are going to die, and then put the phone down. You have to be that blunt with some people to impress upon them the seriousness of the situation.

I did. Some people just refuse to believe that this storm will be catastrophic.

[loro-rojo]

Maria seems to be on rails towards the TJUA NEXRAD site in PR. Does anyone know what wind speed these are designed to withstand?

Any chance Maria poses a threat to the radar site?

I doubt there is anything in this island designed and/or built to withstand this storm.

I dunno, I suspect the forts will come through okay.

Ok.. aside from the Spanish forts. Lol

[galaxy401]

It's getting very close to its max potential intensity so this may be why it has stabilized.

Today is the first time I have ever heard of this term. Is "max potential intensity" legit?

[Sanibel]

TWC forecast for St Croix at 12am is for 136mph NNE winds...

[sweetpea]

Yep.

We've told them to come to San Juan with the rest of us but they are too stubborn.

You need to tell them that they are going to die, and then put the phone down. You have to be that blunt with some people to impress upon them the seriousness of the situation.

I did. Some people just refuse to believe that this storm will be catastrophic.

My dad was refusing to leave, he is 1.5 miles from the shore in Aguirre, I told him to write my phone # on his arm with a sharpie so they could call me when they found him. THEN he left and went to my uncles. Not before he yelled at me first. I don't care it worked

[dukeblue219]

It's getting very close to its max potential intensity so this may be why it has stabilized.

Today is the first time I have ever heard of this term. Is "max potential intensity" legit?

Yep, Google it. It's similar to terminal velocity. As wind speed gets faster the friction it creates grows at as the cube of speed while the energy it sucks out of the ocean grows slower. Eventually, like when a falling object's drag equals gravity, it just can't go any faster. It varies from day to day and location to location as sea and atmospheric conditions change. Here's one set of data: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's getting very close to its max potential intensity so this may be why it has stabilized.

Today is the first time I have ever heard of this term. Is "max potential intensity" legit?

Yes. This part of the ATL basin can only support so much until it cannot strengthen a storm any longer. The Western Caribbean most likely has a higher max though.

[JBCycloneStan]

It's getting very close to its max potential intensity so this may be why it has stabilized.

Today is the first time I have ever heard of this term. Is "max potential intensity" legit?

Yes. This part of the ATL basin can only support so much until it cannot strengthen a storm any longer. The Western Caribbean most likely has a higher max though.

Irma seemed to surpass the max. potential intensity though stipulated for the area at 185 mph north of the Carribean. It seems like this is highly theoretical and hard to definitively gauge.

[Stormtrack03]

While we wait on more information about Maria, here is a good summary read of hurricanes that affected PR in the past century:

https://www.timetoast.com/timelines/maj ... uerto-rico