ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like Maria may be missing the forecast points to the north, that's bad news for St. Croix and bad news for San Juan, PR if it continues. Could be wobbles, we'll wee if it gets pushed west as forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

now its wobbling back more westerly.

[RL3AO]

now its wobbling back more westerly.

It's very likely the inner eyewall rotating around the new one. Still could make a big difference for St Croix.

[1900hurricane]

Radar outer ring looks pretty complete now.

[GCANE]

That warm band in the CDO is weird.

Very weird, 6.2um
SE explodes and NW dies.

[Ken711]

now its wobbling back more westerly.

It's very likely the inner eyewall rotating around the new one. Still could make a big difference for St Croix.

Looks to be tracking slightly south of NHC's track.

[Aric Dunn]

now its wobbling back more westerly.

It's very likely the inner eyewall rotating around the new one. Still could make a big difference for St Croix.

yeppers

[supercane4867]

That warm band in the CDO is weird.

Very weird, 6.2um
SE explodes and NW dies.

https://i.imgur.com/UBcKV6c.png

Perhaps a sign for incoming EWRC.

[Exalt]

That warm band in the CDO is weird.

Very weird, 6.2um
SE explodes and NW dies.

May just be a new band forming and it's becoming more compact due to a completing EWRC.

[sikkar]

St. Croix cam, you can see surf crashing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2CzQclKQc

[RL3AO]

now its wobbling back more westerly.

It's very likely the inner eyewall rotating around the new one. Still could make a big difference for St Croix.

Looks to be tracking slightly south of NHC's track.

I don't see that. Shouldn't be much of a parallax issue here.

[Aric Dunn]

MIght get just enough time to finish the ERC before landfall.. about 10 hours..

[sikkar]

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
900 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...900 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA APPROACHING ST.
CROIX...

A wind gust to 72 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported in the
eastern portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 64.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

NNNN

[1900hurricane]

MIght get just enough time to finish the ERC before landfall.. about 10 hours..

I'm skeptical for now. There's a pretty big difference between the eyewall radii, so the outer would probably have to contract quite a bit, which takes time. I've been surprised before though.

[Ken711]

It's very likely the inner eyewall rotating around the new one. Still could make a big difference for St Croix.

Looks to be tracking slightly south of NHC's track.

I don't see that. Shouldn't be much of a parallax issue here.

Thanks

[CrazyC83]

MIght get just enough time to finish the ERC before landfall.. about 10 hours..

I'm skeptical for now. There's a pretty big difference between the eyewall radii, so the outer would probably have to contract quite a bit, which takes time. I've been surprised before though.

Irma never weakened at all during its first big ERC as a cat 5 - all it did was knock the pressure back some and enlarge it. Doing the same here brings it down to 890 or so.

[HDGator]

MIght get just enough time to finish the ERC before landfall.. about 10 hours..

On radar, the inner wall still appears solid. The outer wall is just starting to solidify and I'm seeing less spiral feeds into the inner eyewall and more of a definition between the two. But I'm not sure it's going to get anywhere before landfall and I've been watching it on Level 2/3 since came into PR radar range. My fear is that any further strengthening of the potential outer eyewall will just spread the windfield and damage. Not that this isn't going to be catastrophic in either case...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

MIght get just enough time to finish the ERC before landfall.. about 10 hours..

I'm skeptical for now. There's a pretty big difference between the eyewall radii, so the outer would probably have to contract quite a bit, which takes time. I've been surprised before though.

Irma never weakened at all during its first big ERC as a cat 5 - all it did was knock the pressure back some and enlarge it. Doing the same here brings it down to 890 or so.

the outer eye is pretty much closed now.. lets see if it begins to contract soon.. HArvey's happened in about 4 to 6 hours. IRMA's were even faster.

[pcolaman]

Once the eye clears, gonna be a pretty large eye.

[abajan]

So, after battering Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos, Maria recurves out to sea, right? Or does she? Here's Mark Sudduth's take on the synoptic setup.

Time will tell.