ATL: IRMA - Models

[HurricaneEric]

In before the next GFS run shows Irma in the Carribean

In all seriousness, if it wasn't evident already before that Euro run, there's a lot of moving parts here and really past day 5 is a crapshoot. By Wednesday or Thursday we should have better consensus on whether the Eastern CONUS will be impacted or not. Right now (take this forecast with a grain of salt), considering these runs and trends, I'd put the chances as "possible" from the north coast of Cuba to Central FL, "probable" anywhere between Central FL to NC, again "possible" for anywhere above NC, and "possible" of OTS still.

[Blown Away]

I suspect Euro ensembles will be more in line with the GFS and be E of Bahamas now...

[bamajammer4eva]

Let's see if farther west..or more of east coast rider this time.

Well the other models shifted west so the Euro will probably shift east.

..

[Blown Away]

Decent N shift of 06z guidance N of 20N/60W, would think NHC may shift cone/track farther away from NE Caribbean at 5am??

[SFLcane]

Euro caves now rather in line with the GFS. This could be good news for the islands.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Uk modeling appears to display erc then expansion
no point looking any further ahead. .

[caneman]

As I and others stated a day or 2 ago, it was highly unlikely that this would affect Florida and the gulf. Could still happen but looks a whole lot less likely. Now, lets hope it goes OTS and not affect the U.S. we dont need another tragedy. Could be a much needed big score for the GFS and other models and for all of us that want better consensus modeling. Further, all the gnashing of teeth and certainty of a strike from posters relying one model or another 10 days out or more is useless. Margin of error must be hundreds if not a thousand miles off.
Let me know when we get to the 120 hour range. That is when accuracy goes way up.

[USTropics]

Interesting first 24 hours on the 06z GFS run, it initializes the storm at 968mb but within 18 hours, has it at 990mb:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

As far as i know its only the full resolution surface model that show's the cyclones estimated mb strength on GFS.

[stormreader]

As I and others stated a day or 2 ago, it was highly unlikely that this would affect Florida and the gulf. Could still happen but looks a whole lot less likely. Now, lets hope it goes OTS and not affect the U.S. we dont need another tragedy. Could be a much needed big score for the GFS and other models and for all of us that want better consensus modeling. Further, all the gnashing of teeth and certainty of a strike from posters relying one model or another 10 days out or more is useless. Margin of error must be hundreds if not a thousand miles off.
Let me know when we get to the 120 hour range. That is when accuracy goes way up.

You're right about waiting before getting all anxious about potential landfall. But you may be premature by saying "highly unlikely this would affect Florida and the gulf". Trends seem to be pointing further east and north, but remember what you said about margin of error. Still too early to say with confidence that Irma will be swept up by an oncoming trough. IMO

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/903557983858290688

[DESTRUCTION5]

Windshield wiper effect if full force this morning I see. Simply way to early to sound any all clears anywhere in the US or Islands.

[Panfan1995]

I keep saying this, but a Hugo, Fran type scenario is unforlding. The signatures and atomosphere was the same, go back and look. We are about 60% Carolinas throught the interior of the NE w lots of rain wind

[xironman]

Once you are much beyond five days upper air forecasts just fall apart

[N2FSU]

Windshield wiper effect if full force this morning I see. Simply way to early to sound any all clears anywhere in the US or Islands.

Yep. After shifting west on the 0z run, the 06z GFS shifts east again for the recurve.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Consensus short term trend is widening the margin between the storm and islands.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS OP is way east, but GFS/ENS trended west. Interesting.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Also, what does the Euro Control show? I think if that OP run went further than D10, it would have showed Irma coming back west...the ridge was rebuilding.

[USTropics]

Also, what does the Euro Control show? I think if that OP run went further than D10, it would have showed Irma coming back west...the ridge was rebuilding.

It was very close to the operational run:

[SFLcane]

06z guidance this morning has moved even further north the islands so the trends are good today. ECMWF is powerful with 1 run out to sea this place is a desert.