EPAC: BEATRIZ - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912017  05/30/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    30    33    37    41    45    45    41    41    41    42    42
V (KT) LAND       25    28    30    33    37    41    45    45    35    30    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       25    27    29    30    31    32    31    30    26    26    27    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     6     9    12    14    11     9    11    11     7     9    11    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -3    -3    -3    -3    -2    -2    -3    -4     0    -5     0    -3
SHEAR DIR        161   192   214   221   200   185   180   178   199   207   188   185   180
SST (C)         29.7  29.6  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.2  29.3  29.3  29.1  29.1  29.1  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   160   159   158   157   155   151   153   155   155   153   152   152   152
200 MB T (C)   -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     6     6     7     7     8     8     9     9    10    10    11
700-500 MB RH     82    82    80    76    73    68    66    64    61    61    58    61    58
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     9     9    10    11    10    10     7     3  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    54    67    66    69    66    67    58    67    61    66    50    63    42
200 MB DIV       122   140   138   114   102   118    60    57    43    34     5     9     6
700-850 TADV       1     2     1     1     0     0    -1     0     0     2     1     1     0
LAND (KM)        277   211   164   130   117   130   111    45   -51  -140  -171  -153  -141
LAT (DEG N)     13.5  14.1  14.6  15.1  15.4  15.4  15.5  15.9  16.6  17.2  17.4  17.6  17.6
LONG(DEG W)     98.2  98.2  98.5  98.9  99.3  99.6  99.4  98.8  98.2  97.5  97.0  96.4  96.0
STM SPEED (KT)     6     6     6     6     4     0     3     4     5     4     3     2     2
HEAT CONTENT      28    26    25    24    25    25    25    24    37    37    37    36    37

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/  5      CX,CY:   2/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  555  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           13.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.  -1.  -1.   1.   6.  14.  21.  28.  31.  33.  34.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   3.   2.   2.  -2.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   5.   8.  12.  16.  20.  20.  16.  16.  16.  17.  17.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   13.5    98.2

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST     05/30/17  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.41         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   132.8      40.5  to  149.3       0.85         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.1      18.9  to    1.4       0.56         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    25.6       0.0  to  106.7       0.24         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   123.2     -33.0  to  156.2       0.83         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.1       2.2  to   -1.9       0.51         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):     3.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.90         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST     05/30/17  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 30 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 275 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, continue
to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the low
drifts northward toward the coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are expected to spread over the
coast of southeastern and southern Mexico during the next several
days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[TheStormExpert]

At best this won't be more than a TD or weak TS.

[dexterlabio]

I am thinking that we may see something similar to Adrian in terms of strength, but with Adrian shear was mainly the problem, but it still had a nice LLC, I think 91E will have a hard time consolidating, and be more broad. IMO the conditions in the EPAC have been very unimpressive, we had one messy Tropical Storm and possibly another one on the way, during 2014 or 2015 Adrian would've had no problem becoming a hurricane

Interestingly EPAC was able to perform really well last year with all the La Nina talk, and this year is supposed to be more favorable with no cold ENSO in the foreseeable future.

[Kingarabian]

At best this won't be more than a TD or weak TS.

GFS and Euro are in agreement of a strong TS.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912017 05/31/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 39 39 40 41 43 45 46
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 33 29 27 30 32 34 28
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 26 26 27 30 31 32 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 12 12 9 7 10 10 6 10 8 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -2 0 0 4 6 3
SHEAR DIR 195 225 218 200 168 174 174 202 223 211 209 281 264
SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.5 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 156 154 154 155 155 154 155 157 149 142
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 12 10 12
700-500 MB RH 82 80 79 75 72 69 68 67 66 65 62 58 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 65 66 74 68 70 86 88 64 36 26 25
200 MB DIV 153 141 120 109 128 84 60 46 31 20 32 15 27
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 6 5 7 10 11
LAND (KM) 249 195 137 86 65 40 -31 -134 -95 38 80 3 -66
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.8
LONG(DEG W) 97.9 97.9 98.3 98.6 98.8 98.7 98.2 97.2 95.9 94.4 92.7 90.6 88.7
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 5 2 3 5 7 8 8 10 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 27 25 24 24 24 23 37 36 27 16 16 7 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 14. 14. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 97.9

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/31/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/31/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Upgrade time.

[Yellow Evan]

This has gone from a total mess to classifiable so fast.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF brings this ashore now by day six. Much more confident in track and development chances now.

GFS/GFS-P brings this ashore in 48 hours in Colima.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro both making this a borderline cane. Considering how quickly its consolidating, hurricane strength is definitely in the cards.

Euro wasn't perfect with this system, but it did a heck of a job in seeing this forming a week out.

[Kingarabian]

NHC should go straight with a TS.

[TheStormExpert]

I must not be seeing things correctly but 1000mb is not a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the center is a little bit more south than past estimates causing more time to intensify in the warm waters before landfall.

[Kingarabian]

I must not be seeing things correctly but 1000mb is not a hurricane.

Hi-resolution, it's really close to a hurricane. 996mb on the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

I must not be seeing things correctly but 1000mb is not a hurricane.

Hi-resolution, it's really close to a hurricane. 996mb on the Euro.

I'm guessing it will be compact.

[cycloneye]

90%-90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 31 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 300 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, have
become more concentrated during the past several hours. If current
trends continue, a tropical depression could form later today or
tonight while the low drifts northward toward the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are expected to
spread over the coast of southeastern and southern Mexico during the
next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Interests along the coast of southeastern
and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a TC to me! I'm thinking advisories will likely be initiated at 15Z.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912017 05/31/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 33 30 30 30 30 32 34
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 12 16 15 12 15 14 16 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 1 -2 0 -1 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 231 213 184 186 193 191 200 200 206 188 184 183 179
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 157 156 156 154 151 151 150 150 150 151 151
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 8 7 10 7 10 8 11 9 12 10
700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 75 71 67 63 63 61 61 61 61 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 62 71 76 81 78 82 76 71 52 44 25
200 MB DIV 141 115 115 116 85 71 55 36 17 5 34 33 27
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 239 184 107 41 -15 -102 -152 -208 -139 -93 -92 -68 -45
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.0 18.1 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 97.9 97.9 97.9 97.9 98.1 98.2 98.2 97.7 97.0 96.4 95.8 95.4 95.0
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 4 2 4 3 3 1 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 21 2 36 30 29 15 16 27 30 30

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 97.9

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/31/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.78 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/31/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 311202
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 31/1145Z

C. 13.6N

D. 98.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A THREE-TENTHS BANDING
FEATURE. THIS CONFERS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 WHILE THE PT IS 1.5. FT
IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[BeRad954]

Total noob here but is there a possibility 91E gets sucked North East into the Gulf? Or would the High over the central US pinch it off?