ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z Euro looks to be sticking to the west Gulf track through 72 hours.

Shifted further north though, and a little stronger.

[mcheer23]

EURO a little further north.

[tolakram]

Trend GIF

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[tolakram]

GFS P trend. Maybe this comes true but I can't help but think this is yet another GFS upgrade that does not improve things for tropical forecasters.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah decent chance of that. Forecasters are unsupportive of the GFS upgrade.
http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/#9hqIeElNLmqK

[Ivanhater]

Operational GFS is in agreement with the GFS para in this case

[RL3AO]

I'm not a model expert (nor do I try to play one on the internets). I'd guess almost everything in the tropics for the global models come down to how convection is parameterized and how it handles the propagation of all near equatorial waves. Something just seems off when the GFS develops a vorticity maxima on the tip of Cuba, seemingly out of nowhere, and it turns into a strong TS in the FL Panhandle.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/876146282913550336

[wxman57]

I still like the Euro's solution best. Into NE Mexico, S. TX. Lots of rain but not much wind by then.

[ronjon]

Watch the heavy convection to the east of the broad turning. Levi Cowan mentioned yesterday that this may be the key to the eventual track of the system. If the heavy convection persists, it may be enough to lower pressure east of the low to cause more northerly component to flow.

[cycloneye]

As of 18:00 UTC Jun 17, 2017:

Location: 17.5°N 86.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 180 NM

[cycloneye]

[Rgv20]

WPC forecast path for 93L is very close too the 12zECMWF and UKMET.

[RL3AO]

WPC forecast path for 93L is very close too the 12zECMWF and UKMET.

I can guarantee that is very close to what the NHC is thinking too. That forecast was coordinated with them.

[srainhoutx]

WPC forecast path for 93L is very close too the 12zECMWF and UKMET.

I can guarantee that is very close to what the NHC is thinking too. That forecast was coordinated with them.

Check the initiation time of those graphics. That was 14Z. The WPC/NHC Coordination call was scheduled for 17Z. Although there likely will be little change in their thinking.

[cycloneye]

Organizing.

[RL3AO]

Most recent ASCAT pass.



I notice a couple things here. 1) The large-scale monsoon gyre is easy to pick out. 2) There appears to be plenty of low-level convergence with strong easterlies moving into the western Caribbean from the east.

[ROCK]

I still like the Euro's solution best. Into NE Mexico, S. TX. Lots of rain but not much wind by then.

Totally agree...

[wxman57]

Take a look at the GFS and even the Canadian ensembles on Tropical Tidbits (Storm section). They're not in agreement with the operational runs. Mostly west, a few north. Euro ensembles will be interesting in an hour or so.