CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS Parallel intensifies this in the CPAC and makes it a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

The new Euro barely has this system.

[Kingarabian]

The new Euro barely has this system.

It was showing a stronger system three runs ago. Latest two have not been bullish. The Euro Parallel I noticed has tended to be less bullish overall. Also wanted to note that 96E is already stronger than what the models are showing at the current moment.

[cycloneye]

Great loop by GOES-16.

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/884844619976015874

[cycloneye]

HWRF is extremly bullish as almost a cat 4.

As of 18:00 UTC Jul 11, 2017:

Location: 12.3°N 108.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

]

[Ntxw]

Structure below still looks great and has sustained convection since last evening. I'd argue already TD worthy

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT missed, but microwave imagery looks pretty good.

[Kingarabian]

Structure below still looks great and has sustained convection since last evening. I'd argue already TD worthy

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/2ebwe12.gif[img]

It needs to take full advantage of the favorable shear environment that it's currently in for the next 24 hours and develop now so it can get an anti-cyclone situated to help keep the upper level winds favorable. There's a chance it'll run into moderate and high shear after 24-36 hours. That will be the difference between getting a robust major hurricane or a sheared depression/weak TS.

Anyone know the THC values beneath it or in its path?

[Kingarabian]

Not buying the 12z Euro at this time. Heavy EPS support. More than 30 members have a developed system moving into the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Here is the TCHP chart and Sea Height Anomaly chart.

[Ntxw]

It is interesting that the 18z GFS and GFS-P doesn't want to strengthen this like the euro. But the storm looks great on satellite. Are they seeing lesser conditions down the road?

[Kingarabian]

Classifiable:

[Kingarabian]

It is interesting that the 18z GFS and GFS-P doesn't want to strengthen this like the euro. But the storm looks great on satellite. Are they seeing lesser conditions down the road?

They both show 10-15kt (favorable) shear in its path. It's not until 140W 15N do conditions get unfavorable.

[RL3AO]

Looks very close to being a TC and seems to be organizing quicker than any global model suggests. Wondering if this one might catch the globals off guard. I'd praise the HWRF, but the HWRF-Parallel has an open wave in 72 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Microwave supports an upgrade.

[Kingarabian]

They probably want to see if it'll hold convection.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eugene, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

1. A well-defined low pressure system, located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is moving westward at about 10 mph.
Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become
better organized, and conditions are conducive for a tropical
depression to form later tonight or on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[RL3AO]

It's close to being a TD. I'm going to take a guess that they'll wait until morning. The lack of global model support might make them hold off for one more cycle.

[Kingarabian]

For 18z:

HWRF/HWRF Parallel/HMON - all show development, and development before the 140W

GFS/GFS Parallel - don't show development until it reaches the CPAC, where they make it a hurricane. Surprisingly, considering that the CPAC is not exactly favorable right now.

[1900hurricane]

I'm a little trigger-happy sometimes, but that F-15 pass would probably be enough for me to renumber if I were calling the shots.

[Ntxw]

Man, if only they can keep GOES-16 right where it is...



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