ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion Thread

[1900hurricane]

I wonder what recon is about to do with the eye now about to cross Dominica.

[Hurrilurker]

When's the next plane going to sample? Storm may be at its peak, they should have them going every 3 hours at least (I know, easy for me to say). Would love to know what the pressure is right now after the ridiculous drop to 925 mb. Unfortunately most of the instrumentation on Dominica may be destroyed before getting a reading in the eye.

[1900hurricane]

I'll go 144 kt SFMR, 152 kt flight level, and 930 mb.

This was in the ballpark prior to Dominica landfall but not perfect, but wow, this almost exactly matches the first pass of the new plane (142 kt SFMR/150 kt FL/931 mb).

[Hurrilurker]

What's the formula for calculating pressure from a non-zero surface wind on center drop? For example 930 mb with 10 kt wind = what actual (estimated) pressure? TIA

[1900hurricane]

What's the formula for calculating pressure from a non-zero surface wind on center drop? For example 930 mb with 10 kt wind = what actual (estimated) pressure? TIA

Subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt.

[Hurrilurker]

What's the formula for calculating pressure from a non-zero surface wind on center drop? For example 930 mb with 10 kt wind = what actual (estimated) pressure? TIA

Subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt.

Oh wow, I thought it would be more complicated, but that's easy. Thanks.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

About the sonde at 6:24pm AST Tuesday that had momentary surface winds of 193 mph.

I used a script to look at 31,173 sondes from the Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific since 1989. I found the 193 mph momentary surface wind recorded by the sonde in Maria Tuesday is the highest during that period, out of sondes that survived to the surface and were able to stay in the eyewall.

I posted the following to Twitter tonight.



Momentary surface winds of 193 mph measured by sonde in #Maria at 6:24pm AST Tuesday is highest in our database of 31,173 sondes since 1989.

This only includes sondes that survived to the surface and recorded a momentary wind speed at the surface level.

These were not 1 minute sustained winds. Link to that 168 knot (193 mph) sonde: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 21-169-168

Some data might be missing in our database, which also does not include data before 1989. Includes Atlantic and East/Central Pacific recon.

Less sondes dropped in the past, not surviving to surface, or being thrown out of eyewall are likely reasons for not measuring higher winds.

The following are sondes that made it to within 10mb of the surface before they stopped reporting and had wind greater than 168 knots.

Kenna (2002, East Pacific): Within 8 millibars of surface: 180 knots (207 mph) http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/re ... 9-932-189-

Dean (2007, Atlantic): Within 3 millibars of surface: 178 knots (205 mph) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 2-931-178-

Rita (2005, Atlantic): Within 4 millibars of surface: 172 knots (198 mph) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 1-937-174-

Rita (2005, Atlantic): Within 10 millibars of surface: 171 knots (197 mph) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 1-940-171-

In second place, out of sondes having momentary surface wind reported, Irma (2017, Atlantic) \w 161 knots (185 mph): http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 37-184-161

In third place, out of sondes having momentary surface wind reported, Dean (2007, Atlantic) \w 152 knots (175 mph): http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 33-152-152

[Chris_in_Tampa]

When available, raw HDOBs from Coyote UAS (drone launched from NOAA P-3 aircraft) will appear in temporary live archive here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/noaa-aoc/im ... ath=coyote
See Read_Me.txt in that archive for details.