ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

50MPH already ..... this thing will be a Ace Machine

[Kazmit]

The intensity forecast is interesting... 5 days of very steady intensification as opposed to RI.

[sma10]

The intensity forecast is interesting... 5 days of very steady intensification as opposed to RI.

Also, it looks like they sensibly split the difference between the GFS and Euro SW dips.

[galaxy401]

Wow that storm looks impressive. Got to monitor the progress of this storm. Never trust those "I" names...

[Hurricane Andrew]

No matter what, it looks like some long nights are ahead...

[Scorpion]

This reminds me very much of Isabel, crazy fast development so far east.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

Wow, NE Caribbean may be in crosshairs... I'm glad this CV storm is Irma, much better than Jose...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Now THAT is a worrying looking track. Still a lot of time, calling for a recurve at this point is not only premature, but dangerous.

[wxman57]

This reminds me very much of Isabel, crazy fast development so far east.

I was thinking the same thing. Wonder if will be a strong hurricane as it tracks westward near or north of the Caribbean next week. Westward tracking hurricanes often become very strong there. Too early to determine if there will be any significant impacts on the NE Caribbean around day 7.5 or if it might pose a threat to the East U.S. Coast in the 10-11 day time frame. I wouldn't trust any of the models this far out as to where it may eventually go.

Oh, note that the NHC's 5 day track ends right where the models are indicating that Irma will shift to a WNW heading.

[LarryWx]

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?

Since 1851, only 1 that was north of 15N at 30W made it to the CONUS:

Storm #6 of 1893:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[weatherwindow]

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?

Good morning....most significant US landfalling storm with genesis at/or in the vicinity of 15degN and east of 30degW is storm #4 1947...Great Fort Lauderdale Hurricane ...landfalling midrange Cat 4...938mb...genesis late Aug/early Sept....landfall mid Sept.....Greeting from Cayo Hueso, Rich
Sept

[Emmett_Brown]

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?

Since 1851, only 1 that was north of 15N at 30W made it to the CONUS:

Storm #6 of 1893:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Ike formed near 17N, 42W. But 30W is indeed quite far east.

[SFLcane]

Thx guys.. quite the rarity but after seeing 50 inches of rain from Harvey anything is possible I guess.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Normal people in college take notes...I peruse S2K and the GOES-16 satellite data. Speaking of which...


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/

Use the global sector, visible, medium zoom, 20-25 frames. You can really see her spinning up rather quickly. Gonna be a few days until she is within RECON range, but I foresee a very, very busy next week for the Hunters.

[caneseddy]

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?

Good morning....most significant US landfalling storm with genesis at/or in the vicinity of 15degN and east of 30degW is storm #4 1947...Great Fort Lauderdale Hurricane ...landfalling midrange Cat 4...938mb...genesis late Aug/early Sept....landfall mid Sept.....Greeting from Cayo Hueso, Rich
Sept

And if you look at the track of that storm, it did take a slightWSW dip as well, then steady WNW-NW until turning west in the Bahamas

[sma10]

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?

Since 1851, only 1 that was north of 15N at 30W made it to the CONUS:

Storm #6 of 1893:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Good stuff Larry!
And this one isn't even an ideal analog since the SW dip on this one occurred immediately upon formation - Irma forecast to dip around 40W. Looks like *potentially* a completely unique track on our hands.

[jlauderdal]

50MPH already ..... this thing will be a Ace Machine

We like big ACE away from.land

[jlauderdal]

The intensity forecast is interesting... 5 days of very steady intensification as opposed to RI.

They rarely predict RI

[sma10]

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?

Good morning....most significant US landfalling storm with genesis at/or in the vicinity of 15degN and east of 30degW is storm #4 1947...Great Fort Lauderdale Hurricane ...landfalling midrange Cat 4...938mb...genesis late Aug/early Sept....landfall mid Sept.....Greeting from Cayo Hueso, Rich
Sept

1947 FLL Hurricane - only major storm to strike Broward directly