ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#201 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z Euro way N & E of 00z through 72 hours, likely OTS...

Oh boy, we now have windshield wiping.

Back to square 1.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#202 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:14 pm

Expected this on the Euro last nights run was rediculous 20 something N all the way 70w yea right
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#203 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:14 pm

Bend to the WSW taking place at hour 96.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#204 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:17 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
"I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons."

That must be why the five day probability of development is 90%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#205 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:17 pm

You can't just say likely OTS because it's far north, pattern supports a bend to the WSW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#206 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:18 pm

12z Euro 4mb's stronger @96hrs. when compared to the 00z run at the same timeframe.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#207 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:19 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro 4mb's stronger @96hrs. when compared to the 00z run at the same timeframe.

Would be awesome if some posted pics, how much stronger or weaker is the ridge?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#208 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:20 pm

Euro trend GIF.

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#209 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:20 pm

Continuing to move WSW at hour 120. Moderate deepening beginning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#210 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:21 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro 4mb's stronger @96hrs. when compared to the 00z run at the same timeframe.

Would be awesome if some posted pics, how much stronger or weaker is the ridge?

12z Euro 500mb @96hrs.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#211 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:22 pm

Use the 500mb heights for steering. You could clearly see that despite the storm starting farther north, there's no OTS path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#212 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:23 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro 4mb's stronger @96hrs. when compared to the 00z run at the same timeframe.

Would be awesome if some posted pics, how much stronger or weaker is the ridge?

12z Euro 500mb @96hrs.

Image


THATS one hell of a ridge.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#213 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:23 pm

12z Euro 500mb @120hrs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#214 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:23 pm

WSW @ 120 992mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#215 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:24 pm

Stronger ridging compared to the 00z so far
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#216 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:25 pm

Continued WSW movement at hour 132.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#217 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:25 pm

12z Euro also has 93L moving slower through 120hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#218 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:25 pm

As a side note - looking wet in TX again
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#219 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:26 pm

Taking a dive across the Central Atlantic. That is one heckuva Bermuda High. Westward bound it is for the foreseeable future.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#220 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:29 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro also has 93L moving slower through 120hrs.


Yep, seems to be similar strength and track, just 12 hrs slower than last run.
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