ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

A cat-4/5 is definitely on the table, this part of the basin has historically been able to produce such deep systems so no reason to think it can't, if it doesn't it will before of any internal structural changes, not because the environment isn't upto it.

[MGC]

Current forecast track has Corpus Christi in RFQ. Bay is shaped like a funnel. Damage from surge could be total along the coast. Mustang Island and Padre Island will be overwashed by surge and large waves. Doubt many structures survive on the barrier islands. Its time to evacuate if you live along the coast. This potentially could be another Ike or Katrina surge event....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Wondering about the track..... Most of the convection is north and east of the center, would think that keeps tugging the center more northward in jogs or stair steps.

[HurricaneBrain]

North shift GIF:

[psyclone]

The landfall area keeps on moving further North. I will not be surprised when the cone of death moves to where it stalls offshore just south of the Texas Louisiana line as a Cat. 5.

A.) you should always be surprised by a cat 5. they're rare. anywhere.
B.) it's highly unlikely to be stalling offshore TX/LA...that's far away from the NHC's official track and that region isn't even under a watch at this point. I'm no mod but if I were I'd suggest keeping these types of posts in check. Things are escalating quickly and this board will be full of people looking for sound insight.

[weathaguyry]

Since I've been away I haven't been able to be on the boards as much, but I just woke up to take a look, and did not expect this, if Harvey keeps strengthening, I would say that it's a possibility that he will strengthen more than forecasted, my prayers are out for the people who live on the Texas coast, and I really hope that everyone is taking this as a serious threat, given how prone the Texas coast is to storm surge flooding

[ROCK]

this will have far reaching in its affects...especially when the winds extend out....

[Wx_Warrior]

My brother updating everyone in Southeast Texas

https://www.facebook.com/KFDMNews/videos/10155645652488756/

[MaineWeatherNut]

This time Recon looks to be setting up a SouthWest to NorthEast pass through the center.

[galaxy401]

Remember when Harvey was just a weak messy storm struggling in the East Caribbean....Crazy how much this has changed.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/900738008189739008

[TheStormExpert]

Remember when Harvey was just a weak messy storm struggling in the East Caribbean....Crazy how much this has changed.

This is why you can never write a tropical system of in late August.

[RL3AO]

Don't forget about the rain, especially if you live inland or north of the expected landfall point. 20 to 30 inches of rain will result in catastrophic flooding. If you live in the orange, red, or purple area you should plan for lost power, flooded streets, and the potential for catastrophic flooding within flood prone areas.

[AubreyStorm]

Any Web cams from the Texas coast.They will be very interesting to watch.

I live in Aubrey Texas!
Here links


http://www.galveston.com/emeraldvideocam/

[Steve]

In addition to the wide scale heavy rain/flooding threat, the wind and storm surge threat near and just north of landfall has drastically increased. 6 to 10+ feet of surge inundation expected.

Yeah, that pretty much sucks. If it can get larger and can make it to Category 3 by landfall - then it just basically spins around a radius of a hundred miles or less for 2 days right along the coast, it's almost unimaginable. I'm nearly positive that the wind won't be anywhere near as strong as what Andrew brought on shore to Homestead 25 years ago. But that blew through in a matter of several hours. We're talking possibilities of eyewall conditions (off and on) for 2 or more days. That doesn't happen EVER. As noted in the model thread as well, that also means potentially a rain shield over SE Texas lasting anywhere from 3-5 days. Think about that. Sometimes it rains all night or all afternoon or whatever. But it never rains for 3 days with embedded tropical storm conditions. I've been here since the beginning and I'm old. But I've never quite seen the potential this has compared to any other storm I ever witnessed. I'm not trying to be Doom Guy. This is real and probably historic.

[Blinhart]

The landfall area keeps on moving further North. I will not be surprised when the cone of death moves to where it stalls offshore just south of the Texas Louisiana line as a Cat. 5.

A.) you should always be surprised by a cat 5. they're rare. anywhere.
B.) it's highly unlikely to be stalling offshore TX/LA...that's far away from the NHC's official track and that region isn't even under a watch at this point. I'm no mod but if I were I'd suggest keeping these types of posts in check. Things are escalating quickly and this board will be full of people looking for sound insight.

I agree with A, but this area is prime to fuel a cat 5, but B it is not that far away it is on the edge of the cone, and with the cone moving every update it will not be that far off. Yes I am being pessimistic about this but with the storm not moving that much, anything will/can happen so I want people to not be completely shocked if my forecast come to fruition.

[psyclone]

this will have far reaching in its affects...especially when the winds extend out....

My motto is when the ocean is in motion...get out of the way. this could be a coastal wipeout near and to the right of the center at landfall. life threatening situation for sure. Harvey is likely to destroy things and kill people. Folks need to heed their local EMA evac orders, secure their property as best they can and come back to fight another day. that's the best hope to keep loss of life to a minimum.

[Aric Dunn]

The landfall area keeps on moving further North. I will not be surprised when the cone of death moves to where it stalls offshore just south of the Texas Louisiana line as a Cat. 5.

A.) you should always be surprised by a cat 5. they're rare. anywhere.
B.) it's highly unlikely to be stalling offshore TX/LA...that's far away from the NHC's official track and that region isn't even under a watch at this point. I'm no mod but if I were I'd suggest keeping these types of posts in check. Things are escalating quickly and this board will be full of people looking for sound insight.

I agree with A, but this area is prime to fuel a cat 5, but B it is not that far away it is on the edge of the cone, and with the cone moving every update it will not be that far off. Yes I am being pessimistic about this but with the storm not moving that much, anything will/can happen so I want people to not be completely shocked if my forecast come to fruition.

I mentioned last night that it might not make it inland into texas at all. that option is quite possible.

[WeatherGuesser]

Pretty good bet that this will be the last Harvey, then, eh?

[Hurricaneman]

Pretty good bet that this will be the last Harvey, then, eh?

More than likely