ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

They declared a state of disaster (for 30 counties, all the way up to Jefferson County). A state of emergency has not yet been issued.

State of Emergency and mandatory evacuations need to be declared soon...

Texas has already declared a state of emergency. I just posted about some evacuations in the Obs and News thread.

[jdjaguar]

Hurricane Scale

Cat 4
MPH 131-155
Pressure 944-920

Latest GFS run has Harvey 940 at landfall.

Time to evacuate in and around the projected area of landfall, in my opinion, is now.

[facemane]

Current forecast track has Corpus Christi in RFQ. Bay is shaped like a funnel. Damage from surge could be total along the coast. Mustang Island and Padre Island will be overwashed by surge and large waves. Doubt many structures survive on the barrier islands. Its time to evacuate if you live along the coast. This potentially could be another Ike or Katrina surge event....MGC

It depends tbh. Ike and Katrina were massive systems. Harvey right now reminds me of Dennis 2005 size wise. Harvey should definitely grow in size as it approaches the coast... Especially if it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle tomorrow before landfall. But I'm not sure it will get as big as Ike or Katrina.

The MS. coast is prone to high surge due to very shallow waters offshore. You can literally walk for miles and only be in knee deep water. Andrew only had a 10 foot surge when it hit Homestead. The waters there are very deep just a few hundred yards offshore.

[Airboy]

I think this will end up being a long thread...

Anyone knows if there is a lot of oil rigs in it's path? Or are they more to the northeast?

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has probably dropped another 4 to 6 mb since the last pass.. inner core convection has tightened up more and a solid ring looks to have developed closer in. Should see a well defined eyewall in the next couple hours.

[BRweather]

pressure has probably dropped another 4 to 6 mb since the last pass.. inner core convection has tightened up more and a solid ring looks to have developed closer in. Should see a well defined eyewall in the next couple hours.

Has your opinion changed yet or still a shot of Harvey not going as far inland or maybe no landfall at all until later on?

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has probably dropped another 4 to 6 mb since the last pass.. inner core convection has tightened up more and a solid ring looks to have developed closer in. Should see a well defined eyewall in the next couple hours.

Has your opinion changed yet or still a shot of Harvey not going as far inland or maybe no landfall at all until later on?

Its still quite possible yeah.

[hohnywx]

I think this will end up being a long thread...

Anyone knows if there is a lot of oil rigs in it's path? Or are they more to the northeast?

There are some in the area of Corpus Christi...however, many are in the SE Texas/SW Louisiana area.

[Aric Dunn]

recon doing circles again in the SW quad. they must be waiting for something..

[SunnyThoughts]

Hurricane expert on weather channel talking about possibly 115 mph by tomorrow night, not sure its gonna take that long.

[ROCK]

recon doing circles again in the SW quad. they must be waiting for something..

hope they are pouring dyno gel or a small low yield nuke...

[MaineWeatherNut]

What is the typical pressure in a Cat 3? I use to know the whole scale but it's been so long since we were faced with this!

[MaineWeatherNut]

recon doing circles again in the SW quad. they must be waiting for something..

hope they are pouring dyno gel or a small low yield nuke...

lol You want to add Radiation Sickness to the list of likely impacts? lol

[PineyWoods]

She teaches and said earlier this morning that school was letting out at noon tomorrow. I wonder if they might not rethink that?

That would be insane and puts the lives of children, parents, and teachers at risk.

I agree with you. I should also correct that this was communicated last night to my mom and hopefully this has changed but haven't spoke to her this morning.

[jdjaguar]

945-964 (typical CAT 3)

[chaser1]

Pretty bizarre that on the 25 Anniversery of Hurricane Andrew, here we are watching unfold another potentially epic event with a risk ranging from very destructive to possibly catastrophic. Harvey's pressure is dropping like a rock.

[Jagno]

I think this will end up being a long thread...

Anyone knows if there is a lot of oil rigs in it's path? Or are they more to the northeast?

There are some in the area of Corpus Christi...however, many are in the SE Texas/SW Louisiana area.

Helicopters have been running since early this morning in and out of our area. Non essential personnel are always evacuated well ahead of these storms.

[lrak]

Rain band already approaching Brownsville. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[hohnywx]

...check the generators down near Corpus:

 https://twitter.com/JohnHonore/status/900744423029559296

[Jagno]

What is the typical pressure in a Cat 3? I use to know the whole scale but it's been so long since we were faced with this!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html