ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

The strong ridging is imparting some NE easterly shear still the steering maps and heights are pretty much nearly at max or will be over the next 6 to 10 hours.. this could drop more wsw than forecast..

[Extratropical94]

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032301
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 23 20170903
225130 1700N 04954W 6961 03079 9937 +105 //// 230055 056 050 006 01
225200 1659N 04953W 6937 03114 9946 +100 //// 231053 056 047 009 01
225230 1657N 04952W 6962 03092 9964 +096 //// 224050 052 046 011 01
225300 1655N 04951W 6962 03098 9973 +094 //// 223047 048 045 009 01
225330 1654N 04950W 6968 03100 9975 +100 //// 227047 048 044 009 01
225400 1652N 04949W 6956 03117 9981 +099 //// 226050 051 043 011 01
225430 1650N 04948W 6958 03118 9990 +094 //// 230051 054 042 014 01
225500 1648N 04947W 6950 03135 9996 +095 //// 225049 050 042 016 01
225530 1647N 04946W 6953 03134 0009 +089 //// 229051 052 042 011 01
225600 1645N 04945W 6949 03146 0005 +095 //// 228052 055 039 011 01
225630 1643N 04944W 6959 03138 0009 +097 +097 225050 051 038 009 00
225700 1642N 04943W 6949 03156 0013 +100 +083 220052 052 036 008 00
225730 1640N 04942W 6965 03140 0016 +103 +071 228053 054 035 008 00
225800 1638N 04941W 6964 03143 0021 +103 +068 234050 052 033 008 00
225830 1636N 04940W 6961 03150 0022 +104 +066 236048 050 032 009 00
225900 1635N 04939W 6957 03159 0032 +099 +072 239044 045 029 009 00
225930 1633N 04938W 6969 03146 0034 +099 +074 239040 041 027 007 00
230000 1631N 04937W 6962 03158 0044 +095 +077 236036 037 025 006 00
230030 1629N 04936W 6957 03169 0044 +096 +078 232034 034 026 005 00
230100 1628N 04935W 6957 03170 0041 +101 +073 225033 033 026 003 00

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904478618423787521

[Aric Dunn]

Seems to be due west right now based on Recon fixes - 17°23' before, 17°25' now.

[Blown Away]

Irma really diving SW again and already nearing @17.4N... The 5pm Disco say Irma will bottom out at 16.8N in 24-36 hours, I'm betting that latitude will need to be adjusted lower...

[GCANE]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Center at 6:43:59pm EDT:



Credit: NOAA-AOC

[BobHarlem]

That upper level low to the northwest of Irma (Very visible on the Water Vapor sat) is that what's driving Irma mostly west or south of west right now? Is that going to keep it south far longer than any of the models are currently projecting, because not many are talking about it?

[Extratropical94]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:00Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 22:45:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 50°06'W (17.35N 50.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 698 statute miles (1,124 km) to the ENE (65°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 99kts (From the NE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) from the flight level center at 22:41:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 16kts (From the S at 18mph)

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:00Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 22:45:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 50°06'W (17.35N 50.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 698 statute miles (1,124 km) to the ENE (65°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 99kts (From the NE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) from the flight level center at 22:41:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 16kts (From the S at 18mph)

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032311
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 24 20170903
230130 1626N 04934W 6968 03158 0037 +108 +069 225032 032 026 001 00
230200 1624N 04933W 6961 03165 0032 +112 +069 228032 032 025 001 00
230230 1622N 04932W 6964 03166 0033 +112 +071 230031 031 023 001 00
230300 1621N 04931W 6962 03169 0033 +115 +057 228029 029 023 001 00
230330 1619N 04930W 6961 03173 0036 +115 +051 228028 029 020 002 00
230400 1617N 04928W 6961 03174 0037 +116 +050 226029 030 019 001 00
230430 1615N 04927W 6964 03172 0041 +113 +053 225031 032 021 001 00
230500 1613N 04926W 6964 03171 0041 +114 +053 229030 030 018 002 00
230530 1612N 04925W 6961 03174 0043 +114 +031 231031 032 020 001 00
230600 1610N 04924W 6962 03175 0051 +114 -041 233032 032 018 001 00
230630 1608N 04923W 6962 03177 0042 +122 -036 235030 030 019 001 00
230700 1606N 04922W 6960 03181 0048 +121 -064 228031 031 021 001 00
230730 1605N 04921W 6966 03178 0059 +108 +016 225032 033 020 001 00
230800 1603N 04920W 6964 03177 0065 +100 +047 227032 032 021 001 00
230830 1601N 04919W 6964 03180 0068 +097 +073 222027 028 024 001 00
230900 1559N 04918W 6952 03197 0067 +096 +090 226025 026 023 002 00
230930 1558N 04917W 6952 03197 0067 +098 +089 230025 026 020 002 00
231000 1556N 04916W 6957 03188 0065 +098 +096 244027 028 020 001 00
231030 1554N 04915W 6956 03193 0064 +100 +095 244028 030 019 002 00
231100 1552N 04913W 6968 03178 0065 +101 +091 249023 024 020 002 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sonde was 961mb with 16 knots of surface wind. Vortex reported 960mb as MSLP. Often the vortex has what the sonde read for the pressure. This time it didn't.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Have to run some errands, can't post the images. Hopefully someone else can take over.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032321
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 25 20170903
231130 1550N 04912W 6966 03184 0070 +100 +079 241024 025 018 001 00
231200 1548N 04911W 6963 03185 0069 +099 +084 241025 026 020 001 03
231230 1548N 04909W 6955 03196 0066 +100 +085 245027 028 020 000 03
231300 1550N 04907W 6951 03203 0066 +104 +076 242028 029 019 002 03
231330 1552N 04907W 6969 03180 0062 +112 +015 236027 027 020 001 00
231400 1554N 04906W 6968 03180 0072 +110 -075 231027 027 021 001 00
231430 1556N 04905W 6970 03177 0075 +105 -050 228028 028 018 001 00
231500 1558N 04904W 6969 03179 0070 +105 +014 223026 026 012 001 00
231530 1600N 04903W 6968 03179 0072 +104 +007 219026 026 013 001 00
231600 1602N 04902W 6968 03179 0075 +098 +044 212027 028 015 001 00
231630 1605N 04901W 6970 03176 0076 +097 +045 209028 029 011 001 00
231700 1607N 04900W 6969 03178 0077 +094 +068 207027 028 013 001 00
231730 1609N 04859W 6969 03176 0068 +099 +082 206025 026 014 001 00
231800 1611N 04859W 6966 03181 0073 +097 +074 200025 025 014 001 00
231830 1613N 04858W 6968 03179 0076 +096 +062 197026 027 012 001 00
231900 1615N 04857W 6966 03182 0070 +100 +072 205022 024 014 001 00
231930 1618N 04856W 6970 03174 0067 +101 +059 211022 023 016 001 00
232000 1620N 04855W 6969 03174 0070 +098 +067 204021 022 011 002 00
232030 1622N 04854W 6968 03179 0064 +104 +072 196027 029 018 002 00
232100 1624N 04853W 6966 03182 0073 +097 +079 194028 029 018 002 00

[Extratropical94]

[Gustywind]

The strong ridging is imparting some NE easterly shear still the steering maps and heights are pretty much nearly at max or will be over the next 6 to 10 hours.. this could drop more wsw than forecast..

that should be a bit worrying Aric Dunn if this move is more pronunced that means that more islands could be impacted as St Kitts Anguilla even Antigua? Hope no boy

[drewschmaltz]

I was pretty young at the time, but I did surf hurricane Floyd. I remember coming inside to check if it was going to "make the turn" every couple of hours. I also remember news saying something to the effect of "it looks like this is coming right for us, but we have high confidence that this will turn north" I don't remember the setup then, but it definitely evokes memories.

[Blown Away]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:00Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 22:45:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 50°06'W (17.35N 50.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 698 statute miles (1,124 km) to the ENE (65°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 99kts (From the NE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) from the flight level center at 22:41:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 16kts (From the S at 18mph)

INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

Irma arrived a little early to 17.2N...