ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

00
URNT12 KNHC 200329
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017
A. 20/03:10:00Z
B. 17 deg 19 min N
064 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2306 m
D. 112 kt
E. 184 deg 5 nm
F. 270 deg 117 kt
G. 184 deg 5 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 13 C / 3050 m
J. 22 C / 3046 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0715A MARIA OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 147 KT 034 / 8 NM 03:13:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200 / 23 KT
;

[Audrey2Katrina]

I find it really concerning that I'm hoping winds on St Croix are only category 3-4 intensity. This season is really messing with my concepts of normals. Most of these islands hit by Irma and Maria haven't had a hit anywhere near this in modern history.

Both Antigua and Barbuda were devastated by Luis in 1995 -- Cat 4... 140 mph... not exactly an Irma or Maria--but nothing to sneeze at either.

[supercane4867]

Looks like dropsonde indicates 908mb.

[1900hurricane]

Looks about 140 kt/908 mb pending further passes.

[Aric Dunn]

besides josh ( who does not update all too often ) what chasers out there ?

[EquusStorm]

I find it really concerning that I'm hoping winds on St Croix are only category 3-4 intensity. This season is really messing with my concepts of normals. Most of these islands hit by Irma and Maria haven't had a hit anywhere near this in modern history.

Both Antigua and Barbuda were devastated by Luis in 1995 -- Cat 4... 140 mph... not exactly an Irma or Maria--but nothing to sneeze at either.

Pretty unfortunate timing being so relatively recent too; Barbuda was probably only recently fully finishing at least ecological recovery only to be hit by an even stronger storm...

[Alyono]

Hopeful that most of St Croix will not see the strongest winds with the inner eyewall as it passes to the south of them. Looking at the recon 125 mph winds is the highest they may see except the most southern tip.

so it will basically be another Hugo for them

[supercane4867]

besides josh ( who does not update all too often ) what chasers out there ?

Mike Theiss is at eastern tip of PR.

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/910327926276722688

[Aric Dunn]

besides josh ( who does not update all too often ) what chasers out there ?

Mike Theiss is at eastern tip of PR.

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/910327926276722688

he is in the perfect spot. unless it wobbles.

[1900hurricane]

besides josh ( who does not update all too often ) what chasers out there ?

I know Jim Edds is in Puerto Rico.

[sikkar]

Decipher please.

031000 1719N 06445W 6963 02357 9075 +215 +102 011002 022 030 001 00

[galaxy401]

Those storm chasers will be in for a handful. We could potentially see Cat 5 winds which is extremely rare...

[Nasdaq]

besides josh ( who does not update all too often ) what chasers out there ?

Brett Adair/Brandon Clement will be live streaming. https://livestormchasing.com/map


Apple Store: https://goo.gl/D4bJZ5 Google Play: https://goo.gl/y8osNc

[PTPatrick]

Agreed that Hugo is probably a decent analog for st. Croix and not one you want to be comparing to since damaged 90% of the islands buildings. It appears west end will take it on the chin again. Fredikstad will be heavily damaged in High end 3/4 wind, just like they got in Hugo. Not sure about length of time for Hugo but they will not get into the eye so the won't get a break, just a long storm.

[txwatcher91]

Decipher please.

031000 1719N 06445W 6963 02357 9075 +215 +102 011002 022 030 001 00

Pressure is 907.5 with surface winds of 30kts on that ob.

[1900hurricane]

I've found that AH77, commonly known as the old "WPac" wind/pressure relationship, seems to work surprisingly well for storms with concentric eyewalls. For 908 mb and an OCI of 1010 mb, AH77 gives an expected Vmax of 135 kt. If we assume only a slight pressure rise during the peak of eyewall replacement, maximum sustained winds might only drop to 130 kt or so.

[stephen23]

Looks like the inner eye is finally trying to give up

[PandaCitrus]

Inner eye wall looks the same as it has for hours. I fff not see any imminent collapse.

[chaser1]

besides josh ( who does not update all too often ) what chasers out there ?

Mike Theiss is at eastern tip of PR.

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/910327926276722688

he is in the perfect spot. unless it wobbles.

That "X" where Mike is at looks a bit more like Roosevelt Roads to me

[hurricaneCW]

Maria is no longer a small system, surge and flooding will be very disastrous on top of the insane winds.