ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032331
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 26 20170903
232130 1626N 04852W 6967 03179 0070 +098 +079 197026 027 020 002 00
232200 1628N 04852W 6968 03179 0068 +102 +060 199028 028 023 004 00
232230 1630N 04851W 6969 03177 0081 +092 +064 190026 028 022 001 00
232300 1633N 04850W 6969 03176 0082 +091 +069 186027 029 023 001 00
232330 1635N 04849W 6968 03178 0083 +089 +071 188027 028 021 001 00
232400 1637N 04848W 6966 03182 0077 +095 +067 189027 027 022 001 00
232430 1639N 04847W 6968 03177 0081 +093 +036 181029 029 023 001 00
232500 1641N 04847W 6967 03180 0085 +090 +044 176027 028 022 002 00
232530 1643N 04846W 6969 03176 0078 +096 +030 181027 028 022 001 00
232600 1646N 04845W 6967 03181 0077 +098 +038 179029 029 025 001 00
232630 1648N 04844W 6967 03181 0079 +096 +047 174030 031 024 002 00
232700 1650N 04843W 6967 03181 0076 +099 +039 170030 030 025 001 00
232730 1652N 04842W 6968 03179 0075 +099 +043 169032 033 022 001 00
232800 1654N 04841W 6968 03181 0074 +101 +040 168033 033 025 000 00
232830 1656N 04840W 6968 03180 0074 +102 +036 169034 036 024 001 00
232900 1658N 04839W 6968 03182 0075 +099 +056 169034 035 023 001 00
232930 1700N 04838W 6968 03181 0072 +104 +036 173035 035 023 002 00
233000 1703N 04837W 6968 03181 0071 +104 +043 171036 037 023 001 00
233030 1705N 04836W 6968 03181 0074 +102 +042 168037 038 024 001 00
233100 1707N 04835W 6967 03183 0077 +097 +074 163036 036 024 000 00

[Extratropical94]

[northjaxpro]

Aric thanks for posting the steering map. I did not get around to doing it myself.

Look at the stout ridge. A very strong ridge indeed forcing the south of West movement. Curious just how far south Irma is going to get. This is critical with regards to the potential impact Irma could have on the Northeast Caribbean Islands.

[RL3AO]

[/b]B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 50°06'W (17.35N 50.1W)

INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

Irma arrived a little early to 17.2N...

17 degrees 21 minutes is 17.35N or so.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/904489020901773313

[Blown Away]

I was pretty young at the time, but I did surf hurricane Floyd. I remember coming inside to check if it was going to "make the turn" every couple of hours. I also remember news saying something to the effect of "it looks like this is coming right for us, but we have high confidence that this will turn north" I don't remember the setup then, but it definitely evokes memories.

Floyd was projected to make the turn in the Bahamas days prior and moved WNW @2-3 degrees higher in latitude than Irma is projected after 70W... It was harry waiting for that turn, but it came as projected and the rest is Carolina history... Irma projected to be quite a bit SW of Floyd after 70W... If Irma is up @23-24N at 70W I think a Floyd track could be more likely...

[Extratropical94]

[Blown Away]

[/b]B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 50°06'W (17.35N 50.1W)

INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

Irma arrived a little early to 17.2N...

17 degrees 21 minutes is 17.35N or so.

Oh you scientists have to be exact...

[Aric Dunn]

The next 12 to 18 hours are key.. if it is south of the 18z ( which all it has to do is not turn west) postion PR will be having problem

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032341
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 27 20170903
233130 1709N 04834W 6968 03180 0073 +099 +067 159035 036 023 001 00
233200 1711N 04833W 6968 03184 0072 +102 +057 158034 034 023 001 00
233230 1713N 04833W 6966 03187 0074 +103 +061 156037 037 023 001 00
233300 1716N 04832W 6968 03185 0069 +105 +067 152037 037 020 002 00
233330 1718N 04832W 6968 03182 0072 +100 +072 151036 037 017 002 03
233400 1719N 04834W 6968 03183 0068 +104 +075 147039 040 023 001 03
233430 1719N 04837W 6969 03181 0073 +100 +073 149039 039 023 001 00
233500 1719N 04839W 6968 03182 0073 +100 +071 149038 039 022 002 00
233530 1719N 04841W 6969 03179 0068 +103 +064 153038 039 024 002 00
233600 1719N 04844W 6967 03182 0072 +100 +056 159039 040 020 002 00
233630 1719N 04846W 6957 03191 0071 +098 +060 158039 040 019 001 00
233700 1719N 04848W 6959 03186 0070 +098 +062 157040 041 021 001 00
233730 1719N 04850W 6957 03189 0065 +101 +058 154038 039 024 002 00
233800 1719N 04853W 6958 03185 0056 +108 +046 155037 037 025 001 00
233830 1719N 04855W 6960 03179 0050 +110 +049 152039 040 025 002 00
233900 1719N 04857W 6956 03185 0053 +108 +031 151038 039 027 001 00
233930 1719N 04900W 6957 03182 0066 +097 +032 153039 041 028 001 00
234000 1719N 04902W 6968 03167 0070 +095 -000 162038 038 029 001 00
234030 1719N 04904W 6960 03175 0060 +103 -002 163040 041 030 001 00
234100 1719N 04906W 6957 03179 0066 +097 -014 162041 041 028 002 00

[Extratropical94]

[jdjaguar]

No comment.

http://i.imgur.com/iEEnYzv.png[/img]

Worst case scenario for me

I know this is the model thread and mods can delete if they wish, but
What day do you figure I need to evacuate my mother from vero, take her back to jax, and then leave west?
Wednesday?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032351
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 28 20170903
234130 1719N 04909W 6956 03180 0058 +097 +063 164040 041 029 002 00
234200 1719N 04911W 6950 03185 0057 +095 +081 171038 039 028 003 00
234230 1719N 04913W 6957 03176 0048 +103 +057 172044 046 029 005 00
234300 1718N 04915W 6960 03169 0043 +107 +044 170048 048 032 006 00
234330 1718N 04918W 6957 03171 0039 +107 +041 166052 053 034 006 00
234400 1718N 04920W 6960 03164 0040 +104 +046 165053 055 033 005 00
234430 1718N 04922W 6963 03157 0041 +098 +056 164054 054 034 005 00
234500 1718N 04924W 6958 03157 0039 +095 +063 166056 057 036 006 00
234530 1718N 04927W 6956 03158 0034 +096 +060 166058 059 036 006 00
234600 1718N 04929W 6953 03154 0036 +091 +061 166061 061 037 007 00
234630 1718N 04931W 6951 03154 0025 +097 +056 169065 067 038 007 00
234700 1717N 04933W 6953 03147 0021 +095 +053 167065 066 039 007 00
234730 1717N 04935W 6959 03134 0016 +092 +077 166067 069 041 006 00
234800 1717N 04937W 6968 03116 0007 +093 +084 166066 067 042 013 00
234830 1716N 04939W 6955 03126 0002 +088 //// 166063 065 044 021 01
234900 1716N 04942W 6944 03137 9991 +091 //// 172056 058 046 032 01
234930 1716N 04944W 6955 03119 9987 +094 //// 174062 064 049 028 01
235000 1715N 04946W 6957 03117 9980 +099 //// 174063 063 047 013 01
235030 1715N 04948W 6952 03116 9975 +098 //// 174060 061 046 010 01
235100 1715N 04950W 6955 03105 9964 +099 //// 177060 063 049 008 01

[Extratropical94]

[Extratropical94]

[RL3AO]

No comment.

http://i.imgur.com/iEEnYzv.png[/img]

Worst case scenario for me

I know this is the model thread and mods can delete if they wish, but
What day do you figure I need to evacuate my mother from vero, take her back to jax, and then leave west?
Wednesday?

IF and it's a big IF the storm were to impact east Florida, it would probably be late Sunday/early Monday. That means evacuations would probably be starting by Friday. However, by Wednesday, we will know more about the potential threat to Florida and you may see an earlier evacuation start with people being much more hurricane aware after Harvey. An earlier rush of people to the stores and out of state would be something to keep in mind for traveling around.

[tgenius]

For what it's worth a coworker went to BJs in Weston (broward) and they are already out of water!

[jdjaguar]

No comment.

http://i.imgur.com/iEEnYzv.png[/img]

Worst case scenario for me

I know this is the model thread and mods can delete if they wish, but
What day do you figure I need to evacuate my mother from vero, take her back to jax, and then leave west?
Wednesday?

IF and it's a big IF the storm were to impact east Florida, it would probably be late Sunday/early Monday. That means evacuations would probably be starting by Friday. However, by Wednesday, we will know more about the potential threat to Florida and you may see an earlier evacuation start with people being much more hurricane aware after Harvey. An earlier rush of people to the stores and out of state would be something to keep in mind for traveling around.

Thank you sir.

As you know you cannot evacuate south Florida, knowing this, Wednesday it is, should the models remain static.

[GCANE]

Latest radar from Kermit.
West side of the eye maybe closing off.

[AutoPenalti]

For what it's worth a coworker went to BJs in Weston (broward) and they are already out of water!

Same here in Walmart in Margate. New trucks coming tomorrow morning.

Everything else was fine, so I'm taking some stuff just in case.