ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Just yesterday the 3km NAM was showing a pressure sub 920 for peak strength and it was quickly discredited. Now, it actually may end up being fairly close and the only model showing such a low pressure. Just goes to show how intensity forecasting needs to weigh ALL options. I’ve seen the 3km NAM do horrible at times and then great for others. This is one time it nailed it.

It remains discredited. It may have a correct number but it's not designed for this and any accuracy is more of a coincidence than anything else. NAM is good for non tropical weather.

[ROCK]

Is it me or does it appear that Harvey is continuing to move along the northern spectrum of the guidance cone?

Need to look at center fixes to discern motion now..moving incredibly slow..IMO

[Aric Dunn]

163930 2427N 09323W 8434 01354 9849 +187 //// 115073 078 076 003 01
164000 2428N 09322W 8443 01352 9867 +176 //// 117080 083 077 005 05
164030 2429N 09321W 8425 01382 9872 +183 //// 122084 086 072 007 01
164100 2429N 09320W 8430 01389 9891 +182 +182 121083 088 070 009 03
164130 2430N 09319W 8423 01405 9911 +177 +177 124084 085 068 020 03
164200 2431N 09318W 8437 01404 9929 +173 +173 127084 085 /// /// 03
164230 2432N 09317W 8424 01428 9940 +172 +172 127080 083 059 013 00

85 MPH hurricane

[galvbay]

Live web cam of Boliver beach @
https://www.bolivarpeninsulatexas.com/W ... rise-Beach

[NotoSans]

Latest recon pass supports 75kt.

[MaineWeatherNut]

We have a hurricane... 88kts flight level in the NE Quad

[davidiowx]

Looks like we have a hurricane now.

[txwatcher91]

Just yesterday the 3km NAM was showing a pressure sub 920 for peak strength and it was quickly discredited. Now, it actually may end up being fairly close and the only model showing such a low pressure. Just goes to show how intensity forecasting needs to weigh ALL options. I’ve seen the 3km NAM do horrible at times and then great for others. This is one time it nailed it.

It remains discredited. It may have a correct number but it's not designed for this and any accuracy is more of a coincidence than anything else. NAM is good for non tropical weather.

It can be useful and even quite accurate in situations like this where the global models all indicate a period of rapid strengthening but don’t accurately pick up on how strong a system may get. When used in conjunction with other models that also agree with rapid deepening, it usually is pretty close to the mark

[artist]

She teaches and said earlier this morning that school was letting out at noon tomorrow. I wonder if they might not rethink that?

That would be insane and puts the lives of children, parents, and teachers at risk.

I agree with you. I should also correct that this was communicated last night to my mom and hopefully this has changed but haven't spoke to her this morning.

They have a mandatory evacuation for the county now. Schools are closed.
https://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2 ... ard-coast/

[GCANE]

Theta-E ridge building along the coast - highlighted in yellow.
Its a little far out yet but something you don't want to see.
TCs literally explode in intensity when they track into one.
Keeping a very close eye on this.

[Clint_TX]

Pressure dropping at a good clip. This may bottom around 940ish or even lower before all is said and done. Wow!!
.

Some thinking is 930-940 at landfall

[1900hurricane]

I'm getting a T4.5 using a center embedded in the light grey color shade. T4.5 is 77 kt, which is in very good agreement with recon data.

[GCANE]

Pretty close to being the deadly pink donut.
Happens about once every ten years in the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure dropping at a good clip. This may bottom around 940ish or even lower before all is said and done. Wow!!
.

Some thinking is 930-940 at landfall

Its a small core could be lower. it has a steep graidient as well.

[ROCK]

wow major before long if it keeps this up...cat 3 is conservative I think now...blown away..

[Clint_TX]

Pressure dropping at a good clip. This may bottom around 940ish or even lower before all is said and done. Wow!!
.

Some thinking is 930-940 at landfall

Its a small core could be lower. it has a steep graidient as well.

You know the guy that said this, I'm sure he would agree

[CrazyC83]

We have a hurricane... 88kts flight level in the NE Quad

Combined with the SFMR, agreed with 75 kt. Could even have a case for 80 kt.

I'd expect a Special Advisory around 1730Z (probably taking the place of the intermediate).

[JPmia]

Rain band already approaching Brownsville. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

You getting out of there or looking to ride it out?

I'm going to stay for now. I've advised my ex-wife and kids go to a friends in George West. I'll charge my video camera and see if I can upload quick youtube vids for you guys to watch.

Hope you have shutters on those windows.

[davidiowx]

wow major before long if it keeps this up...cat 3 is conservative I think now...blown away..

IT really is mind blowing.. Just goes to show what the GoM is capable of this time of year and why people should ALWAYS be prepared along the coast.

[northjaxpro]

That is real trouble GCANE
.
The ridge building in will block this cyclone for days , up to a week, just meandering or stalling along the coast. This potentially is just a catastrophic situation unfolding, no way around it