ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

They still spinning wrenches on those pump gear boxes in Nola?
Even with a miss they could still get 5 plus inches of rain with surge.

105 of the 120 are operational. I think all the ones that were out for the July and August floods have been fixed. We had two cars (luckily only the interiors) flooded in a 2 week period. With a day or so warning, I can get my cars up to the parking garage at work on a higher floor. Not everyone has that luxury unfortunately.

NAM 18z is running. At 7 hours, center is still somewhat elongated and roughly in the same spot where it is now on the 12km.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[CycloneGuru]

Ukmet has it hitting Freeport, Tx at 985

[TexWx]

A Freeport scenario is not good for Houston.

Or Freeport for that matter.

[ROCK]

UKMET that Dr Masters likes has been steadfast in its solution for many runs now...at least for the first landfall...cannot be discounted but neither can all the other models in this short range...like I said its almost time to now cast and look at the current situation...

[davidiowx]

How are the Euro ensembles on precip?

[Steve]

UKMET's greatest victory was Hurricane Ivan's revenge in 2004. No other model had anything like that, and it was right. Speaking of which, GFS 12z does keep a trackable entity from exiting Harvey off the US East Coast and pushes it down back toward NC. It's barely a closed isobar, but that's kind of how things were looking back in September 2004 when UKMET first picked up on it. Haha. No chance of a repeat, but it's interesting.

23.5 / 93.3 in 23 hours for the NAM 12km. A bit west and a bit north of now. But not that much movement overall.

[msp]

12km NAM takes a nice strong westward wobble 29-34hr

[msp]

32km NAM coming in well west of its 12z run, slightly stronger too

[ROCK]

18Z NAM ...basically the trof is pulling out and its a race to the coast before the high builds...IMO...not looking at intensity

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[NDG]

NAM all is doing is coming in closer with the GFS & Euro's track forecast, that's all. So in another word, coming into its senses, lol.
It is a horrible model to follow after its 36-48 hr timing for tropical forecasting, IMO.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro Ensembles from Ryan Maue

[msp]

12km/32km NAM brings it to just about matagorda bay at 84hr

[South Texas Storms]

18z 3km NAM continues to indicate a track farther southwest than the 12km/32km. Latest run brings it in near South Padre Island.

[Castingline3]

UKMET's greatest victory was Hurricane Ivan's revenge in 2004. No other model had anything like that, and it was right. Speaking of which, GFS 12z does keep a trackable entity from exiting Harvey off the US East Coast and pushes it down back toward NC. It's barely a closed isobar, but that's kind of how things were looking back in September 2004 when UKMET first picked up on it. Haha. No chance of a repeat, but it's interesting.

23.5 / 93.3 in 23 hours for the NAM 12km. A bit west and a bit north of now. But not that much movement overall.

I went through Ivan and it was not fun. I hope here in Santa Rosa/Escambia county stays calm.

[gatorcane]

Ukmet has it hitting Freeport, Tx at 985

[stormlover2013]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=072

[hd44]

Ukmet has it hitting Freeport, Tx at 985

Way stronger than 985 ... closer to 965 as Ukmet text files posted before showed.

[ROCK]

Eh UKMET was sub 970MB per text....but the jest is that it is strengthening up until landfall the first time

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS 06 hours:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 12: