ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I am guessing the Special Advisory likely forthcoming will upgrade the landfall (or near landfall) forecast to cat 4. Although I could see some weakening in the 6-12 hours before landfall due to upwelling and dry air?

[galaxy401]

It's been years since we had a full scale hurricane in the Gulf. All that heat in the waters was bound to fuel a monster at some point.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/monitornews/status/900762673608052737




 https://twitter.com/reportermatt/status/900758981286785027




 https://twitter.com/AransasPassPD/status/900762161777127424

[galaxy401]

Hurricane now!

[Stormtrack03]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: That is real trouble GCANE
.
The ridge building in will block this cyclone for days , up to a week, just meandering or stallinh along the coast. This potentially is just a catastrophic situation unfolding, no way around it

The only thing that could make this worse if he starts making a turn to the north.
When TCs track more due north there are secondary Coriolis forces that that kick in and spin TCs up even more.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/900763864865931265

[cycloneye]

UPGRADED TO HURRICANE

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan

[txwatcher91]

wow major before long if it keeps this up...cat 3 is conservative I think now...blown away..

I’m thinking sub 920 for peak intensity, cat 5 possible.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The two planes out there are just about close enough they should have visual of each other. The newest arrival is about to make another center pass I believe

[Hurricaneman]

The two planes out there are just about close enough they should have visual of each other. The newest arrival is about to make another center pass I believe

I'm thinking cat 2 by 5 and major by morning. I could see 978/977 this pass

[mcheer23]

Will they update Track too with special advisory? or just intensity?

[JPmia]

And it has yet to pass over the Loop Current's Warm Eddy.. see Dr. Jeff Master's post for graphic: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/dange ... 3-landfall

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, those strongest winds extend out a good way NE of the center!

[Blown Away]

Ugh, good luck Tx peeps... Not envious of the anxiety to get shutters up, supplies gathered, family concerns, and then property damage... Maybe more NW-WNW motion past few frames...

[Tree]

I have been a lurker since 2011, but am now compelled to post that this storm is causing an absolutely mind blowing situation. Harvey is beautifully ominous and impressively destructive. Bitter sweet terms to describe what it is capable of. I am in central Louisiana watching closely. I huge thank you to all those who post from an educational standpoint here. I have learned a tremendous amount just reading. Everyone stay safe.

[hohnywx]

Will they update Track too with special advisory? or just intensity?

It's a full advisory package...discussion, track and forecast all updated.

[tatertawt24]

I had a feeling I'd wake up to this. Unfortunately TX hurricanes aren't known for weakening before landfall, either.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241706
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 24/16:35:40Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
093 deg 28 min W
C. 850 mb 1254 m
D. 59 kt
E. 177 deg 7 nm
F. 284 deg 53 kt
G. 185 deg 11 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 22 C / 1529 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C24
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 1209A HARVEY OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT 032 / 14 NM 16:41:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 285 / 4 KT
MAX OUTBOUND SFMR WIND 77 KT 028 / 11 NM 16:40:00Z
;

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC just issued an update upgrading Harvey