ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/2345 UTC 17.3N 50.2W T4.5/5.0 IRMA
03/1745 UTC 17.8N 49.2W T5.0/5.5 IRMA

[CronkPSU]

I used Amazon prime now to get water delivered to the house. If you cannot find supplies I highly suggest ordering online while there is still time.

Did the same for D batteries since the stores were out tonight also got bottled water and some bulk non perishable, cheaper anyways ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 11, 2017090400, , BEST, 0, 173N, 504W, 100, 959, HU

[eastcoastFL]

It does look like it is really losing latitude now. Wonder how low she goes?

Where would you say her fix is about now? That ridge is starting to look pretty serious.

[jdjaguar]

Day 7 forecast from WPC. This is coordinated with NHC so it gives you an idea of what they're thinking beyond day 5.

Thank you for this.
not a meteorologist, but would this front cause the hard turn away from FL?

[GCANE]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

[WeatherGuesser]

I used Amazon prime now to get water delivered to the house. If you cannot find supplies I highly suggest ordering online while there is still time.

I suggest you save milk, juice or other jugs and fill them from the tap when needed.

[eastcoastFL]

Day 7 forecast from WPC. This is coordinated with NHC so it gives you an idea of what they're thinking beyond day 5.

Is that 992mb? That wouldn't be so bad if that's the case.

[Hammy]

Given the current intensity, I'm wondering if the last 2-3 days of intensity are going to be upped post-analysis.

[Ken711]

Day 7 forecast from WPC. This is coordinated with NHC so it gives you an idea of what they're thinking beyond day 5.

Is that Low dropping down through Montana, Wyoming and Colorado have any impact on the track?

[Extratropical94]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 0:24Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:58:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°18'N 50°21'W (17.3N 50.35W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 682 statute miles (1,097 km) to the ENE (65°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,773m (9,098ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ESE (105°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 189° at 90kts (From the S at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) from the flight level center at 22:41:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the W (270°) from the flight level center at 0:01:59Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the W (271°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 169 / 9 KTS AT 16 M ABV SFC

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 040031
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 32 20170904
002130 1717N 05204W 6958 03192 0073 +100 +050 020047 047 025 001 00
002200 1717N 05206W 6958 03193 0072 +101 +054 020046 046 025 001 00
002230 1717N 05209W 6958 03195 0074 +102 +040 022046 047 026 002 00
002300 1717N 05211W 6958 03195 0080 +098 +053 022045 047 029 002 00
002330 1717N 05213W 6958 03198 0077 +101 +057 023044 044 030 002 00
002400 1718N 05215W 6958 03198 0075 +105 +044 023043 043 031 001 00
002430 1718N 05218W 6957 03200 0077 +103 +052 023040 042 030 002 00
002500 1718N 05220W 6937 03223 0072 +103 +076 022044 047 028 003 00
002530 1719N 05222W 6938 03221 0073 +102 +085 027044 044 029 001 00
002600 1719N 05224W 6953 03210 0080 +102 +068 027042 042 028 001 00
002630 1719N 05227W 6953 03210 0081 +101 +073 024044 045 026 001 00
002700 1720N 05229W 6954 03208 0081 +102 +069 026046 047 027 001 00
002730 1720N 05231W 6954 03210 0083 +103 +055 027046 047 025 001 00
002800 1721N 05233W 6956 03210 0083 +104 +057 028042 043 026 001 00
002830 1721N 05236W 6952 03214 0077 +110 +044 027038 039 025 001 00
002900 1721N 05238W 6951 03216 0075 +113 +035 027040 040 024 001 00
002930 1722N 05240W 6951 03216 0072 +115 +047 025041 041 024 001 00
003000 1722N 05243W 6952 03216 0074 +114 +046 028040 041 024 001 00
003030 1723N 05245W 6952 03217 0080 +110 +045 030039 040 026 001 00
003100 1723N 05247W 6952 03218 0086 +107 +040 031037 038 025 001 00

[GCANE]

Island 92 Radio
Northeast Caribbean's Home of Rock, Blues and Good Time Music
Simpson Bay, St. Maarten

8PM Irma Update

http://pjil.streamon.fm/listen-pl-3354# ... Y.facebook

[Extratropical94]

[GCANE]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/904503277420732416

[cycloneye]

Plane returns to base.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Storm looks quite lopsided on satellite...

[eastcoastFL]

From the Melbourne NWS Forcasters Discussion:

Fri-Fri Night...Fcst subject to change based on future track of
distant hurricane Irma, though large and dangerous swells expected
to impact the east FL Coast with SCA conditions anticipated by
sunset with winds bcmg a moderate to fresh NE breeze areawide. Seas
north of Sebastian Inlet building to 10-12FT nearshore and 12-15FT
offshore by sunset...south of the Inlet seas building to 5-7FT
nearshore and 6-8FT offshore.

[GCANE]

Core Heating Up at 9C
Eye wall now closed

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 0:24Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:58:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°18'N 50°21'W (17.3N 50.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 682 statute miles (1,097 km) to the ENE (65°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,773m (9,098ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ESE (105°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 189° at 90kts (From the S at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) from the flight level center at 22:41:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the W (270°) from the flight level center at 0:01:59Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the W (271°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 169 / 9 KTS AT 16 M ABV SFC