ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sikkar]

So do we consider this to be a classic EWRC?

[1900hurricane]

So do we consider this to be a classic EWRC?

I would.

[Hurrilurker]

That's it, inner eye definitely looks to be collapsing. If this had happened 6 hours ago it would be terrible news for PR, but now, it might be "good".

[otowntiger]

watching some long radar loops.. not much structually has changed in the last 2 hours which is good.. ERC is taking time... good news.

It's taking time, but it's definitely progressing. Seeing more wobbles on radar as it begins to revolve around the outer eye. Also seeing on radar that velocities in the outer, at least aloft, are now higher than the inner in both the NE and SW quadrants. It may not be able to finish the ERC completely by landfall, but it is going to be too close for comfort...not that there's any comfort in a cat4+ hurricane approaching that has just significantly expanded in size

yeah, luckily it really does not look like it will have time to finish and deepen. the inner eyewall needs to collapse before the outer eyewal l can contract anymore. and thus deepen back to cat 5.

unfortunately it won't make much difference at this point. What is about to hit PR will be very bad regardless if it is a strong cat 4 or low end cat 5. It really could just about be the worst case scenario for them at this point.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, the time left for the ERC to complete is over thankfully !

130 to 140 mph right now .. not really enough time to deepen even it the ERC ended right now..

still going to terrible.. but at least its not 175 mph.

[aperson]

It's taking time, but it's definitely progressing. Seeing more wobbles on radar as it begins to revolve around the outer eye. Also seeing on radar that velocities in the outer, at least aloft, are now higher than the inner in both the NE and SW quadrants. It may not be able to finish the ERC completely by landfall, but it is going to be too close for comfort...not that there's any comfort in a cat4+ hurricane approaching that has just significantly expanded in size

yeah, luckily it really does not look like it will have time to finish and deepen. the inner eyewall needs to collapse before the outer eyewal l can contract anymore. and thus deepen back to cat 5.

unfortunately it won't make much difference at this point. What is about to hit PR will be very bad regardless if it is a strong cat 4 or low end cat 5. It really could just about be the worst case scenario for them at this point.

It definitely makes a huge difference. NOAA calculates wind speed increase as having an 8th power relationship with monetary damage estimates (source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropi ... _wheel.pdf). Structural damage is absolutely not a linear thing.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like 914 mb (915 mb/16 kt).

[1900hurricane]

06Z best track is 140 kt/913 mb.

15L MARIA 170920 0600 17.6N 65.1W ATL 140 913

[Aric Dunn]

icyclone josh is going to miss the center and maybe brush the eyewall on current course.. he rarely misses.

[Aric Dunn]

06Z best track is 140 kt/913 mb.

15L MARIA 170920 0600 17.6N 65.1W ATL 140 913

recon showing barely 140 mph..

[Hurrilurker]

Jeez, after beginning to fold inwards on itself, this inner eyewall is stubbornly reforming and holding on. Barely. It's thin and unstable, but it's not dead just yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

yeah, the time left for the ERC to complete is over thankfully !

130 to 140 mph right now .. not really enough time to deepen even it the ERC ended right now..

still going to terrible.. but at least its not 175 mph.

Curious though: given that Puerto Rico has areas of elevation a couple thousand feet above sea level, portions of the island could experience what is generally considered winds "aloft" which are likely still at cat5 strength, as opposed to the typical surface winds. Could this factor into what NHC will consider Maria's official landfall intensity?

[Aric Dunn]

Also a weakeining/ERC landfall has less mixing down of the higher winds normally... not down playing it.. it is still going to be destructive regardless. but at least concrete structures wont blow over.. if well built..

[shah83]

I think this is going to make more of a restrengthening than Odile did before Cabo...

[hurricaneCW]

Also a weakeining/ERC landfall has less mixing down of the higher winds normally... not down playing it.. it is still going to be destructive regardless. but at least concrete structures wont blow over.. if well built..

This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

[Blinhart]

Also a weakeining/ERC landfall has less mixing down of the higher winds normally... not down playing it.. it is still going to be destructive regardless. but at least concrete structures wont blow over.. if well built..

This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

No way will she weaken to a mid Cat 3, she still has about 6 hours to strengthen back up to a Cat 5 if she even weakens down to a Cat 4.

On a major side note, wish I could afford to fly to all these areas that hurricanes are forecast to make landfall to be a chaser, but since I am not a true met or someone that has the actual experience I would probably get myself killed in one of my first tries.

[Aric Dunn]

Also a weakeining/ERC landfall has less mixing down of the higher winds normally... not down playing it.. it is still going to be destructive regardless. but at least concrete structures wont blow over.. if well built..

This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

no the weakening is done.. its in a steady state really .. if that inner eye collapses it will start to deepen but dont think there is enough time. only a few hours left.

[shawn67]

Also a weakeining/ERC landfall has less mixing down of the higher winds normally... not down playing it.. it is still going to be destructive regardless. but at least concrete structures wont blow over.. if well built..

This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

My stomach flips when people make broad declaratory posts like this...

[hurricaneCW]

Also a weakeining/ERC landfall has less mixing down of the higher winds normally... not down playing it.. it is still going to be destructive regardless. but at least concrete structures wont blow over.. if well built..

This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

My stomach flips when people make broad declaratory posts like this...

I think it's important to be optimistic and given recon found winds near 140, it could definitely get down to a 3 if the trend continues. San Juan should see lower winds than at landfall too.

[Aric Dunn]

crazy thing is the NHC wont be able to adjust intensity before landfall even though it is no longer a cat 5. post season possibly.