ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I have not this worried(to put mildly) since 2004/5 and other storms and not to forget about Matthew just last year if ever, Irma is too hard to call(and too early) I am getting prepared just in case...
This hurricane will be bad to anyone/everyone it impacts(hopefully none)...

Worry rant over: I hope there is a miracle out to sea coming missing all islands and landmasses......

Storm2KStrong

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hey guys, I'm gonna try to make a forecast cone...wish me luck.

[wxman57]

Spent the day cutting sheetrock out of a coworker's house. What a mess. Amazing model forecasts of low pressure. I expect Irma to be a Cat 5 when it reaches the Bahamas. Maybe 140-150 kts. It's going to be bad for them, and very bad if it impacts the east U.S. coast, which is looking like an increasing probability. OK, going relax. I'm going to be very sore tomorrow...

[Aric Dunn]

Hey guys, I'm gonna try to make a forecast cone...wish me luck.

Just do better than JB lol

[RL3AO]

Next center fix is scheduled for 0830Z (4:30 am eastern).

[txwatcher91]

Spent the day cutting sheetrock out of a coworker's house. What a mess. Amazing model forecasts of low pressure. I expect Irma to be a Cat 5 when it reaches the Bahamas. Maybe 140-150 kts. It's going to be bad for them, and very bad if it impacts the east U.S. coast, which is looking like an increasing probability. OK, going relax. I'm going to be very sore tomorrow...

Thanks for your analysis, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Do you buy the models trending towards the GOM and FL landfall, or do you expect a more northerly turn like the GFS indicates could occur?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 040041
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 33 20170904
003130 1724N 05250W 6953 03217 0091 +103 +048 033037 038 024 000 00
003200 1724N 05252W 6954 03217 0091 +104 +051 034038 039 022 001 00
003230 1724N 05254W 6953 03218 0088 +105 +048 036039 040 022 001 00
003300 1725N 05257W 6955 03217 0087 +107 +053 036039 040 021 001 00
003330 1725N 05259W 6954 03219 0089 +106 +058 035039 040 022 001 00
003400 1725N 05301W 6952 03221 0089 +106 +055 035040 040 021 001 00
003430 1726N 05304W 6953 03220 0090 +106 +054 035040 041 022 000 00
003500 1726N 05306W 6952 03221 0094 +102 +058 033038 039 020 001 00
003530 1727N 05308W 6952 03223 0096 +101 +066 032036 036 022 000 00
003600 1727N 05311W 6953 03223 0096 +102 +069 032034 035 021 001 00
003630 1727N 05313W 6953 03223 0093 +104 +070 034035 036 020 001 00
003700 1728N 05315W 6956 03221 0094 +105 +065 036036 036 020 000 00
003730 1728N 05317W 6953 03225 0096 +104 +060 036035 036 020 001 00
003800 1729N 05320W 6953 03224 0095 +105 +061 035034 034 020 001 00
003830 1730N 05322W 6952 03226 0097 +104 +061 036034 034 019 001 00
003900 1730N 05324W 6954 03226 0097 +104 +059 038034 035 018 001 00
003930 1731N 05326W 6952 03228 0098 +104 +059 039035 035 019 001 03
004000 1731N 05329W 6952 03228 0100 +102 +056 037035 036 016 001 03
004030 1729N 05330W 6954 03225 0103 +101 +050 037036 036 019 001 03
004100 1727N 05330W 6952 03227 0105 +099 +060 034036 036 023 000 00

[flamingosun]

surprised more people don't just buy 5 gallon camping-style jugs and fill them up at their leisure

Perhaps because 5 gallons of water weighs almost 42 pounds, which is a little much for some of us?

[RL3AO]

Still getting 10 to 15 knots of shear due to the midlevel flow from the NE. With the well defined eye and low pressure, I'd expect Irma to intensify rather quickly once it starts moving W and WNW in a day or two.

[LarryWx]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

[Blown Away]

Spent the day cutting sheetrock out of a coworker's house. What a mess. Amazing model forecasts of low pressure. I expect Irma to be a Cat 5 when it reaches the Bahamas. Maybe 140-150 kts. It's going to be bad for them, and very bad if it impacts the east U.S. coast, which is looking like an increasing probability. OK, going relax. I'm going to be very sore tomorrow...

Lowest Latitude Predicted By Past Few NHC Forecasts:
11pm: ?? (Sunday Night)... I predict back down to 16.4 over next 24-36 hours due to the SW nose dive over past few hours...
5pm: 16.8
11am: 16.4
5am: 16.5
11pm: 16.5 (Saturday Night)
5pm: 16.8
11am: 17.1
5am: 17.0
11pm: 16.8 (Friday Night)

*** A few Mets on Storm2k have said the lower Irma goes in latitude delays the WNW turn and increases Irma affecting NE Caribbean & CONUS...
*** Wxman57 does the latitude drop short term still have long term effects??

[northjaxpro]

Recon just wrapped their mission for the evening. They will be back out there around 4:30 a.m. EDT. for another fix on Irma. Irma is at near 98 KT found by Recon currently.

[jdjaguar]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

What do you find hilarious?
Records can and are broken.

I hope I can laugh in 8 days

Not laughing at the moment.

[cycloneye]

New video by Levi Cowan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... e-tuesday/

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hey guys, I'm gonna try to make a forecast cone...wish me luck.

Just do better than JB lol

Nope...map skills aren't working tonight lol

[Extratropical94]

They are still sampling the western part of Irma

URNT15 KWBC 040051
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 34 20170904
004130 1724N 05330W 6953 03227 0105 +098 +065 031036 036 024 000 00
004200 1722N 05330W 6952 03227 0103 +100 +062 030035 035 023 001 00
004230 1719N 05330W 6953 03226 0105 +099 +063 030035 035 024 000 00
004300 1717N 05330W 6953 03226 0106 +098 +064 029034 035 023 001 00
004330 1715N 05330W 6953 03227 0105 +098 +061 028033 034 025 000 00
004400 1712N 05329W 6954 03225 0104 +100 +059 027034 034 021 001 00
004430 1710N 05329W 6953 03226 0106 +097 +062 028034 035 022 000 00
004500 1708N 05329W 6953 03226 0096 +106 +054 029033 033 022 001 00
004530 1705N 05329W 6953 03225 0101 +102 +058 031034 035 021 002 00
004600 1703N 05329W 6952 03227 0098 +103 +060 028033 033 018 001 00
004630 1701N 05329W 6955 03224 0098 +103 +057 024033 033 019 001 00
004700 1658N 05329W 6955 03223 0097 +104 +050 020034 034 019 001 00
004730 1656N 05329W 6954 03224 0097 +105 +041 019036 037 021 001 00
004800 1654N 05329W 6953 03224 0098 +104 +044 020036 036 019 001 00
004830 1651N 05329W 6954 03223 0098 +103 +052 021036 037 018 001 00
004900 1649N 05329W 6954 03223 0097 +104 +050 022038 038 020 001 00
004930 1646N 05329W 6954 03223 0096 +104 +051 022037 038 022 001 00
005000 1644N 05330W 6954 03223 0095 +105 +047 021038 038 018 001 00
005030 1642N 05330W 6954 03223 0095 +105 +046 019038 038 020 000 00
005100 1639N 05329W 6953 03224 0095 +106 +043 019039 039 019 001 00

[CrazyC83]

Given the current intensity, I'm wondering if the last 2-3 days of intensity are going to be upped post-analysis.

I am thinking a slight uptick as well, maybe a 110 kt pre-Recon peak.

[eastcoastFL]

Hey guys, I'm gonna try to make a forecast cone...wish me luck.

Just do better than JB lol

Nope...map skills aren't working tonight lol

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

[drewschmaltz]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

[Extratropical94]

I'll stop posting for now, I need to get some sleep. The interesting part of the mission is over anyways.

URNT15 KWBC 040101
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 35 20170904
005130 1637N 05329W 6953 03224 0097 +104 +042 017038 039 019 001 00
005200 1634N 05329W 6952 03225 0096 +105 +038 016038 038 020 001 00
005230 1632N 05329W 6954 03224 0100 +103 +030 014037 037 020 001 00
005300 1629N 05329W 6953 03223 0103 +100 +032 011036 037 019 000 00
005330 1627N 05329W 6954 03224 0103 +101 +030 010036 037 018 001 00
005400 1625N 05329W 6956 03223 0105 +099 +043 011036 036 018 001 00
005430 1622N 05329W 6953 03225 0103 +100 +042 012036 036 019 000 00
005500 1620N 05329W 6953 03224 0106 +097 +046 013036 036 019 001 00
005530 1617N 05330W 6954 03224 0105 +099 +042 013037 037 019 000 00
005600 1615N 05330W 6954 03224 0103 +102 +038 012037 037 018 001 00
005630 1612N 05330W 6954 03225 0102 +103 +033 012036 036 018 001 00
005700 1610N 05330W 6954 03224 0107 +099 +041 008035 035 017 000 00
005730 1608N 05329W 6954 03226 0104 +101 +044 007033 033 017 000 00
005800 1605N 05329W 6952 03227 0101 +105 +023 006033 034 014 001 00
005830 1603N 05329W 6953 03227 0100 +107 +015 004034 035 015 001 00
005900 1601N 05329W 6954 03226 0102 +106 +008 002035 036 015 001 00
005930 1558N 05329W 6954 03226 0102 +107 +002 000034 034 016 000 00
010000 1556N 05329W 6953 03227 0099 +109 +001 358032 033 018 000 00
010030 1553N 05329W 6953 03228 0097 +110 +005 359031 032 018 000 00
010100 1551N 05329W 6953 03228 0097 +112 -006 000030 031 016 001 00