ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

What do you find hilarious?
Records can and are broken.

I hope I can laugh in 8 days

Not laughing at the moment.

I find DT to be funny in general, especially because he rants along with numerous typos in his writeups. Have you ever read or heard him? Also, I do think he has a very valid point about the ridiculously low pressures being shown on the GFS. They have been WAY lower than anything on record that''s ever occurred near the SE coast. Do you really believe them? I don't. Yes, the signal is for an extremely strong storm of cat 4 to possibly an unprecedented in some areas cat 5. But do you really believe the recent runs showing pressures in the 880s just off NC/SC? That's like 50+ mb stronger than anything else on record in that area! Hazel had 938 mb and it was moving very fast..

[FLeastcoast]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I have not this worried(to put mildly) since 2004/5 and other storms and not to forget about Matthew just last year if ever, Irma is too hard to call(and too early) I am getting prepared just in case...
This hurricane will be bad to anyone/everyone it impacts(hopefully none)...

Worry rant over: I hope there is a miracle out to sea coming missing all islands and landmasses......

Storm2KStrong

if it was to hit the daytona to jax general area...how bad do you think it would be inland near Ocala?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Just do better than JB lol

Nope...map skills aren't working tonight lol

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


[AutoPenalti]

Nope...map skills aren't working tonight lol

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


That's essentially in line with yesterday's UKMET I think, lol.

[otowntiger]

Day 7 forecast from WPC. This is coordinated with NHC so it gives you an idea of what they're thinking beyond day 5.

Looks like they have it a pretty good distance off the FL coast. Kinda surprising based on the trends but certainly a good thing. Looks like they are buying the Euro track.

[Weatherboy1]

Some of these pressure forecasts are well and truly off the charts, so therefore unlikely to pan out. But if Irma misses all the islands that have disrupted other storms (Hispanola, etc.) on the approach to FL ... And faces little shear ... And has extremely warm water to fuel her, she could be a major force to reckon with. Definitely more concerned here in South FL with each westerly shift in the models...

[jdjaguar]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

What do you find hilarious?
Records can and are broken.

I hope I can laugh in 8 days

Not laughing at the moment.

I find DT to be funny in general, especially because he rants along with numerous typos in his writeups. Have you ever read or heard him? Also, I do think he has a very valid point about the ridiculously low pressures being shown on the GFS. They have been WAY lower than anything on record that''s ever occurred near the SE coast. Do you really believe them? I don't. Yes, the signal is for an extremely strong storm of cat 4 to possibly an unprecedented in some areas cat 5. But do you really believe the recent runs showing pressures in the 880s just off NC/SC? That's like 50+ mb stronger than anything else on record in that area! Hazel had 938 mb and it was moving very fast..

No. I admit I have not read him. that said, if you do not use models for guidance, why even have them?

Just have a bad feeling, call it the J-model

Peace

[eastcoastFL]

Nope...map skills aren't working tonight lol

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


Erase it and try again. It's headed too close to us.

So that's a bit South of the NHC?

[Ken711]

New video by Levi Cowan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... e-tuesday/

Great video. He explained that low dropping down from Montana flowing the deep trough I was wondering about.

[Stangfriik]

The thing that really calms me a bit even being only a couple miles inland is that there are almost 2 miles of trees and buildings between us and the full scope of the intense winds. During Matthew, nsb airport reported a 116mph gust around 2pm and we only had one or two shingles missing from the roof and we were even closer to the coast than the airport and only 2 blocks from the intercostal river when we lived in a rental about a miles from the beach.

Now as I'm sitting on my balcony looking due North which is where most of the winds would come if it rode the coast, heck even east of North and it's miles of trees to buffer the wind. I'm just over 2 miles going due east to the coast. Add more to that when going south east

I'm sure those in more exposed areas, say beachside with less trees, would fare a bit worse, but we won't be leaving unless some monster cat 5 decided to come right over top of us

[Hurricane Andrew]

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


Erase it and try again. It's headed too close to us.

So that's a bit South of the NHC?

My unofficial is a bit south at first...then a turn north...how far north, I can't say yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall convection really starting to become organized again. Ir looks like deepening is about to occur. Also another more southerly wobble the last hour since recon.

Looks to be passing south of tge next nhc position.

[tgenius]

What I have to imagine is tomorrow at some point, (could be 11am or 5pm) but SFL will be in that 5 day cone. I'm praying the storm lifts, but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/

[jdjaguar]

The thing that really calms me a bit even being only a couple miles inland is that there are almost 2 miles of trees and buildings between us and the full scope of the intense winds. During Matthew, nsb airport reported a 116mph gust around 2pm and we only had one of two shingles missing from the roof and we are even closer to the coast than the airport and only 2 blocks from the intercostal river.

As I'm sitting on my balcony looking due North which is where most of the winds would come if it rode the coast, heck even east of North and it's miles of trees to buffer the wind.

I'm sure those in more exposed areas, say beachside with less trees, would fare a bit worse, but we won't be leaving unless some monster cat 5 decided to come right over top of us

Careful there, Matthew was nothing compared to what Irma (could be)

Do NOT be complacent.

Peace

[Michele B]

New video by Levi Cowan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... e-tuesday/

It all makes so much more sense just by listening to Levi for 10 mins than an entire day of watching and reading and trying to analyze the models on my own!

[WeatherGuesser]

but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/

It's been mentioned here before, but there are currently a LARGE number of people who have never been through a Hurricane in their lives. Many have moved in from other non-Hurricane prone states and that doesn't count the number of people born since the last one struck.

[LarryWx]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

Indeed, Dave has eaten many a word due to his always seeming to go out on a limb well in advance. He has had many major fails amongst his successes. I'm not a fan of him for accuracy as a result. He's very much a hit or miss forecaster. And I don't at all agree with throwing the GFS out just because of the extremely low pressures. But one thing I think he's right about is that the 880s pressures being shown just off SC/NC are going to verify as having been way too low should Irma happen to go that way (hopefully it will stay offshore, regardless). The lowest on record there is 938 mb (Hazel of 1954). What's the lowest I could see offshore SC/NC should a very strong Irma go near there? Realistically, around 920 mb and that's probably overdone and would be absolutely devastating there.

[jaxfladude]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I have not this worried(to put mildly) since 2004/5 and other storms and not to forget about Matthew just last year if ever, Irma is too hard to call(and too early) I am getting prepared just in case...
This hurricane will be bad to anyone/everyone it impacts(hopefully none)...

Worry rant over: I hope there is a miracle out to sea coming missing all islands and landmasses......

Storm2KStrong

if it was to hit the daytona to jax general area...how bad do you think it would be inland near Ocala?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I do not know( don't know what the Jax metro impacts will be) it depends how much of an impact Irma will have if if if if it hits northern half of Florida..and the direction it's going....it's intensity and all that goes into a hurricanes power and whatnot...that is is worrying for Florida and the USA east coast..but the first to be impacted in some way are the islands in the northeast Caribbean....wish I knew how to answer...I am not a pro-met- I'm just on storm2k for times like these and general tropical weather....

[eastcoastFL]

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


Erase it and try again. It's headed too close to us.

So that's a bit South of the NHC?

My unofficial is a bit south at first...then a turn north...how far north, I can't say yet.

So what made you come to that assessment? When you say north do you mean due North?

I couldn't even take a shot at it because I'm unsure how far south she will get .

[jlauderdal]

Hey guys, I'm gonna try to make a forecast cone...wish me luck.

Just do better than JB lol

Remember those crazy accuweather cones a few years ago...they were easily 1000 miles acrosd