ATL: MARIA - Models

[gatorcane]

Comparing the 06Z GFS to 12Z, that trough over Florida looks slightly weaker and more west. Need to watch this if we have a trend here or not as a weaker trough displaced more west would allow this system to end up more west.

[northjaxpro]

My point is stiil the same, stop and watch the models as they progress

I am always watching my friend, and just lived through Irma. You are preaching to a choir full of weather experts, pros and amateurs on here.

Well, It is a models thread, so making observations based on runs is going happen at some point...

Well, I am keenly aware this is a models thread. I only responded to remind the Voltron poster that his time reference was wrong. That can confuse people. That was it. He retorted to insinuate to me to do something I do every day of my life. Yes, make your points , but don't make snide comments to me or other posters. I have been a member of this site for too long, and I think some things people post on here can be rather unnecessary and rude at times. We do not need this on here. I respect everyone's opinions on this site, and I believe in treating everyone on here fair and with due respect.


I come on here to share my educated thoughts and analysis, just like everyone else. All is good with me as long as we have respect for each and everyone on this forum.

[otowntiger]

Guys,

Chill out!!! We are like 14 days away here, massive changes. Not a FL hot. Just yesterday models show a NC hit. Big ridge folks, but lots can change. No wishcastinf and doomsday here!! Models will be back and forth. Chill

Agreed. Well said. There are some on here that hold their breath it seems with every twist and turn of the models. these things very far out and guaranteed to change. Chillin is good advice.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

JMO, GFS making Jose way too strong, which creates more of a weakness in the ridge for 15L to follow. Not saying it's impossible -- Jose certainly has surprised us before -- but everything still suggests a weaker Jose. Could be enough to create a weakness to turn 15L OTS, I suppose.

[AutoPenalti]

I am always watching my friend, and just lived through Irma. You are preaching to a choir full of weather experts, pros and amateurs on here.

Well, It is a models thread, so making observations based on runs is going happen at some point...

Well, I am keenly aware this is a models thread. I only responded to remind the Voltron poster that his time reference was wrong. That can confuse people. That was it. He retorted to insinuate to me to do something I do every day of my life. Yes, make your points , but don't make snide comments to me or other posters. I have been a member of this site for too long, and I think some things people post on here can be rather unnecessary and rude at times. We do not need this on here. I respect everyone's opinions on this site, and I believe in treating everyone on here fair and with due respect.


I come on here to share my educated thoughts and analysis, just like everyone else. All is good with me as long as we have respect for each and everyone on this forum.

I was responding to Voltron too, lol.

Euro is running right now, let's see what it says.

[johngaltfla]

What's strikes me the most...models have lows spinning up everywhere....something will pop in the NW Caribbean based on the signals

Which is why we're concerned here in Florida. It looks more and more like after Jose leaves the scene some of the better models has the ridge building back in. Hopefully they are wrong but they were not, as a general rule, about Irma.

[MrJames]

Here is the 12z UKMET text output. For some reason, the graphic from SFWMD is not updating the plots. Can one of you plot the coordinates and post a graphic??

TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.09.2017 12.8N 53.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 17.09.2017 13.5N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.09.2017 14.1N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.09.2017 14.5N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.09.2017 15.0N 58.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.09.2017 15.8N 59.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.09.2017 16.6N 61.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.09.2017 17.4N 62.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.09.2017 17.8N 64.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.09.2017 18.0N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2017 18.9N 66.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2017 20.0N 67.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

Mapped

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF with a direct hit in Puerto Rico:

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian in the gulf..

[tolakram]

Don't forget we have a REPORT button. For those who haven't been around a while, we do not need reminders that these are just model runs because WE KNOW, this is the models thread. If you'd rather just know what the NHC says then the discussion thread is for you. The model threads exist to discuss model runs, and topics related to those runs.

Thanks.

[ScottNAtlanta]

(for those who need to chill )

[Nimbus]

Both HWRF and GFS have 950 mb hurricanes tracking over Puerto Rico from the south.. .
No surprise considering the outflow observations yesterday.

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF beginning to run. Reminder that you can get all the full-res non-WMO essential ECMWF products here for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro use menus to the left of the image to navigate and let me know if you have any questions

[tolakram]

12Z ECMWF beginning to run. Reminder that you can get all the full-res non-WMO essential ECMWF products here for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro use menus to the left of the image to navigate and let me know if you have any questions

You need to add a North Atlantic map Jack. I do love the maps you all offer.

[tolakram]

Same location as last 12Z run but stronger.

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF beginning to run. Reminder that you can get all the full-res non-WMO essential ECMWF products here for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro use menus to the left of the image to navigate and let me know if you have any questions

You need to add a North Atlantic map Jack. I do love the maps you all offer.

Appreciate it Will suggest to the higher ups some basin maps, in the mean time you can go here https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/gr ... 1800z.html and click into the map to zoom in, click near the edge of the map to pan around

[tolakram]

Weather.us custom zoom

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20170917-0900z.html

Unfortunately I can't tell if this is from the current run or the previous.

Woops, yes, on bottom of map: ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days) from 09/16/2017/12z

[tolakram]

[forecasterjack]

Weather.us custom zoom

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20170917-0900z.html

Unfortunately I can't tell if this is from the current run or the previous.

look at the very bottom, below the map below the color bar, it says "ECMWF Global Euro HD (10 days) from" and then the run time.

[tolakram]