ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

Any chance that if it does move NE with the trough, could the high take over and move it back west? Not saying this will happen, but I'm just curious as to what would happen

[Snowman67]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

What do you find hilarious?
Records can and are broken.

I hope I can laugh in 8 days

Not laughing at the moment.

I find DT to be funny in general, especially because he rants along with numerous typos in his writeups. Have you ever read or heard him? Also, I do think he has a very valid point about the ridiculously low pressures being shown on the GFS. They have been WAY lower than anything on record that''s ever occurred near the SE coast. Do you really believe them? I don't. Yes, the signal is for an extremely strong storm of cat 4 to possibly an unprecedented in some areas cat 5. But do you really believe the recent runs showing pressures in the 880s just off NC/SC? That's like 50+ mb stronger than anything else on record in that area! Hazel had 938 mb and it was moving very fast..

It's almost as crazy as the models that showed parts of SE Texas getting over 50 inches of rain with Hurricane Harvey. Oh wait, we did...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/daBahamianTing/status/904521251309457409

[fci]

Getting somewhat concerning here in SE Florida watching these models. But have been here before where models try to obliterate us about 6-7 days out and then once you get inside 3-4 days they have gradually shifted off us. Ike is a good example. Looked like a shoe-in hit but models kept shifting past us to the south. Not saying we will get so lucky yet again but we will know more in a few days once the system is in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and NE Leewards.

All attention should be on the islands at this point as the margin for error with the consensus model tracks is razor thin as far as core hurricane fore winds impacting the islands or something less, maybe a brush. Time to start watching every wobble.

Since I am a slave to climatology/history (whichever suits me better, LOL); I see Ike (almost exactly the same time 9 years ago) or Floyd here. I do not want to see Frances or Jeanne!

[Aric Dunn]

You dont see that too often.. latest satellite is showing a the larger eye trying to clear out while.. what looks like an older midlevel circ lagging behind. This is clearly lopsided due to the ne shear. Its likely going to push this farther south than forecast.. ..

[eastcoastFL]

Latest track graphics, data and coordinates from the Navy:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

They have the best graphics of the cone and map IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

You dont see that too often.. latest satellite is showing a the larger eye trying to clear out while.. what looks like an older midlevel circ lagging behind. This is clearly lopsided due to the ne shear. Its likely going to push this farther south than forecast.. ..

I'm not seeing that..?

[GeneratorPower]

What I have to imagine is tomorrow at some point, (could be 11am or 5pm) but SFL will be in that 5 day cone. I'm praying the storm lifts, but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/

South FL will not be in the cone in my estimation. The NHC will either slow the system down or adjust the track to the right to prevent that. They won't put FL on alert unless they're reasonably sure it will happen. Seen it many times.

definitively disagree with this statement.

Let's test my assertion. If you see that cone undeservedly avoiding Miami-Dade you'll know for sure.

[eastcoastFL]

The horses in ocala would be running for the barn for sure..

Ocala might be my fall back spot. I'm on the coast in Martin county. Ocala would have to be safer for us.

You and blown away can carpool to the mountains of ocala...although heading south could end up.better...who knows

Good point maybe I'll make a key largo trip instead

[cycloneye]

@TropicalATL
#Irma loop from @NOAA_HurrHunter's lower fuselage radar on WP-3D Orion aircraft. 3:24pm to 9:04pm AST. 5pm AST NHC track. (Credit: NOAA-AOC)

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/904517748885217280

[Blinhart]

Latest track graphics, data and coordinates from the Navy:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

They have the best graphics of the cone and map IMO.

If you look at that map, Miami is already in it.

[eastcoastFL]

South FL will not be in the cone in my estimation. The NHC will either slow the system down or adjust the track to the right to prevent that. They won't put FL on alert unless they're reasonably sure it will happen. Seen it many times.

definitively disagree with this statement.

Let's test my assertion. If you see that cone undeservedly avoiding Miami-Dade you'll know for sure.

I doubt the NHC will make up a track or change the speed simply to spare Florida from preparation. The backlash if they didn't do that would be much worse. We've been in many cones that didn't land here.

The naval site already has the Florida coast line in their cone: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

[eastcoastFL]

Latest track graphics, data and coordinates from the Navy:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

They have the best graphics of the cone and map IMO.

If you look at that map, Miami is already in it.

Yup. I just mentioned that in another post. It'll be deeper in it on the next update. Still plenty of time for changes but if you're off of work tomorrow I'd get some prepping out of the way. I did most of mine over the weekend just to not be amongst the herd when it gets closer.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is diving more wsw.. here are the last 3 recon fixes and you can see the eye clearing.. (a little old) already pretty much at 17n and diving.. this is very very important.

[fci]

South FL will not be in the cone in my estimation. The NHC will either slow the system down or adjust the track to the right to prevent that. They won't put FL on alert unless they're reasonably sure it will happen. Seen it many times.

definitively disagree with this statement.

Let's test my assertion. If you see that cone undeservedly avoiding Miami-Dade you'll know for sure.

I'm sorry but I just don't buy the conspiracy theory of areas avoiding the cone.
Didn't happen with Ike and I don't see it as realistic

[dexterlabio]

Indeed, Dave has eaten many a word due to his always seeming to go out on a limb well in advance. He has had many major fails amongst his successes. I'm not a fan of him for accuracy as a result. He's very much a hit or miss forecaster. And I don't at all agree with throwing the GFS out just because of the extremely low pressures. But one thing I think he's right about is that the 880s pressures being shown just off SC/NC are going to verify as having been way too low should Irma happen to go that way (hopefully it will stay offshore, regardless). The lowest on record there is 938 mb (Hazel of 1954). What's the lowest I could see offshore SC/NC should a very strong Irma go near there? Realistically, around 920 mb and that's probably overdone and would be absolutely devastating there.

I agree with Larry. Since the GFS upgrade, we've seen this model showing sub-900 howlers in mid-latitude regions. We saw this one happened with a few typhoons that were forecast to hit Japan earlier this year. Not saying Irma won't become a Cat5 for a moment, but an 880mb system that north and close to the east coast is something else.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hello pinhole eye...I expect to see significant strengthening over the next 12-24 hours...24/7 recon presence will be helpful.

[BucMan2]

Aric- hope you are well- please explain why the dive wsw
Is vey important and what implications on the track might it have moving forward? Thank you

[CourierPR]

definitively disagree with this statement.

Let's test my assertion. If you see that cone undeservedly avoiding Miami-Dade you'll know for sure.

I'm sorry but I just don't buy the conspiracy theory of areas avoiding the cone.
Didn't happen with Ike and I don't see it as realistic

I recall when Floyd was headed for So. FL. the NHC Director, Jerry Jarrell said that even though they were thinking the storm would turn, they had to issue hurricane warnings because the risk was too great.

[AutoPenalti]

The center is diving more wsw.. here are the last 3 recon fixes and you can see the eye clearing.. (a little old) already pretty much at 17n and diving.. this is very very important.

About to miss the forecast point to the south I think.