ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Looks like reports from Kermit have stopped coming in.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone have an estimated time window of landfall? Originally I thought they had said late Friday afternoon a couple of days ago, but it looks like they pushed it back?

Thanks!

[txwatcher91]

With the Euro stalling this out near or just north of Corpus Christi, something to watch out for that models likely won't pick up is for the circulation to crawl slowly up the coast instead of moving inland, due to the frictional effects of land and extremely weak steering currents. This will not be modeled but is a distinct possibility.

That will be very interesting to observe, these systems do have a habit of bending to the right on coming into landfall from frictional effects as it hits the shore. I'm not expert on this but its worth watching.

Isn't this something similar to what Bonnie in 1998 did in NC?

I was a bit too young to remember that one but I do remember Ophelia quite well. It had weak steering currents and models insisted it would come inland with the eye passing right over me, instead it followed the angle of the coastline and slowly crawled up it. The Euro actually shows something similar happening as hours 96-120 it just crawls up the coast. Seems very reasonable and would be a devastating track if true. Euro continues to strengthen it too as it heads for LA as a major cane...

[tropicwatch]

Does anyone have an estimated time window of landfall? Originally I thought they had said late Friday afternoon a couple of days ago, but it looks like they pushed it back?

Thanks!

Looking like Saturday morning.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Looks like reports from Kermit have stopped coming in.

No, the message are just not in the correct format. They dropped the extrapolated surface pressure column. I will have to manually adjust messages.

[Aric Dunn]

Something is wrong with the recon data lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

Harvey is looking odd at the moment. Anyone know what is going on?

[tolakram]

10 to 15kts northerly shear it looks like.

[Aric Dunn]

that 12 euro run is getting closer to what ive saying... no good

[AxaltaRacing24]

Harvey is looking odd at the moment. Anyone know what is going on?

Appears to be shedding it's banding.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4514&y=5813&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/CityofGalveston/status/900782969975181314




 https://twitter.com/baycitytribune/status/900786556226678786

[1900hurricane]

New convective burst is wrapping around the north side on the GOES-16 30 second imagery. Looks like it corresponds to a strong northern eyewall.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=Harvey&mission=13&agency=NOAA&product=radar&ob=2017-08-24-182415-24.453388N-93.706345W-NOAA-2-Center.kmz

[GCANE]

Those towers keep building higher and higher on top of the CDO.
If this keeps up overnight, I wouldn't be surprised to see a stadium eye tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Harvey is looking odd at the moment. Anyone know what is going on?

This is actuallu very classic. Its getting better amd better organized with its core

[Langinbang187]

Wow I take a break from the Tropics for a few days and this happens. Insane.

[AxaltaRacing24]

10 to 15kts northerly shear it looks like.

All that does (if anything) is increase the northerly outflow. At this point, Harvey's two greatest hurdles are time and itself.

[Blown Away]

Little dry slot wrapping into center... Looks NW to me...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Something is wrong with the recon data lol

Aircraft static air pressure is missing and the extrapolated surface pressure column is gone. My system is not designed to allow for the aircraft static air pressure to be missing and coded like "////". NHOP (http://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/nhop2.htm) doesn't specify that. I'll try to make some adjustments.

URNT15 KWBC 241756
NOAA2 1309A HARVEY HDOB 20 20170824
[deleted for clarity]
175500 2255N 09249W 7892 02116 0058 +171 +107 220020 020 012 001 00
175530 2255N 09247W //// 02109 +168 +107 221020 021 012 002 23
175600 2253N 09246W //// 02117 +168 +106 222019 019 015 001 20

0058 is the column for extrapolated surface pressure (or d-value). Missing in later obs. And where you see "////" that should never be coded as missing.

[tiger_deF]

Harvey appears to have entrained a small dry slot, which should mix out soon. While I don't think it will stop intensification thanks to a strong eyewall it probably contributes to Harvey's weird shape. The northern blob almost reminds me of Matthew with it's Western blob