ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Christiana]

I completely agree. IMO, I don't think anyone on the Texas GOM coast or their neighbors in SW LA are out of the woods yet. All on the Gulf Coast should pay attention. Still too early. I'm no expert but I've made some decisions that were life changing in the past by assuming I was out of the woods, when in fact, I was not. Some storm pops up and says: Surprise! Elena, I'm talking to you. Storm was going toward Tampa when I headed out solo on a catamaran that sunny morning in the GOM off the MGC. Models are struggling, I am learning so much from this one. Looking forward to tonite's runs, am drinking coffee.

[BigB0882]

I've said it many times. I despise those types of spaghetti plots. They show useless statistical models which give the impression that any line has an equal chance of happening. It doesn't. Follow the GFS, Euro, Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, HMON, or a consensus of those models (like TCVN). If you have a spaghetti plot of ECMWF/GFS/GEM ensembles then we have something of use.

Thank you. I knew something was off with those plots. I haven't seen much mention of such a shift then all of the sudden a graphic is shown making it look like all models take this SW after landfall.

[Pearl River]

Is it possible that the models are seeing 92L develop and pumping the ridge up to force Harvey west and southwest?

[sphelps8681]

From what I understand from TWC the cause of the models going more toward Mexico is because there is a collapse in steering. Would this not cause what is happening to the models?

[NDG]

Spaghetti that looks like those models are flocking to the true king......the king of the north (cmc)!

CMC is absolute garbage past its 72 hr forecast, Sunday night, just 3 nights ago, it was still calling for Harvey to make landfall near Tampico when the GFS and Euro were already trending towards TX. It has been left bias since then.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

From what I understand from TWC the cause of the models going more toward Mexico is because there is a collapse in steering. Would this not cause what is happening to the models?

Showing a change not only of the HP in the gulf, but also out west (reaching into Mexico

[msp]

0z nam rolling. Thru 9hrs and already farther west

[caneman]

Spaghetti that looks like those models are flocking to the true king......the king of the north (cmc)!

CMC is absolute garbage past its 72 hr forecast, Sunday night, just 3 nights ago, it was still calling for Harvey to make landfall near Tampico when the GFS and Euro were already trending towards TX. It has been left bias since then.

How can you say it's garbage if it ends up being right? Euro and GFS arent always right. There is a reason the NHC uses a blend especially given all of the models rather poor performance this year.

[NDG]

The Euro has been the most consistent & persistent model during the past couple of days on forecasted area for landfall and heading after landfall.
Spaghetti models are not to go by when steerings are weak. IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

0z nam rolling. Thru 9hrs and already farther west

And stronger

[msp]

NAM noticeably weaker with ridging to west, stronger with ridging to east

[caneman]

The Euro has been the most consistent & persistent model during the past couple of days on forecasted area for landfall and heading after landfall.
Spaghetti models are not to go by when steerings are weak. IMO.

http://i.imgur.com/L7GX1pg.gif
http://i.imgur.com/CWxXqxa.gif
http://i.imgur.com/qOtWyoz.gif
http://i.imgur.com/8aS6gay.gif

You don't know where the heading will be after landfall nor where landfall will occur. Better to wait for verification after the fact. Better to also to trust the blend. All models for the last 3 days have been all over the board.

[sphelps8681]

The Euro has been the most consistent & persistent model during the past couple of days on forecasted area for landfall and heading after landfall.
Spaghetti models are not to go by when steerings are weak. IMO.

http://i.imgur.com/L7GX1pg.gif
http://i.imgur.com/CWxXqxa.gif
http://i.imgur.com/qOtWyoz.gif
http://i.imgur.com/8aS6gay.gif

I think they are affected by the drop in steering and that is why they are going west. I think things will change when the high to west starts to build in more.

[NDG]

Spaghetti that looks like those models are flocking to the true king......the king of the north (cmc)!

CMC is absolute garbage past its 72 hr forecast, Sunday night, just 3 nights ago, it was still calling for Harvey to make landfall near Tampico when the GFS and Euro were already trending towards TX. It has been left bias since then.

How can you say it's garbage if it ends up being right? Euro and GFS arent always right. There is a reason the NHC uses a blend especially given all of the models rather poor performance this year.

How can you say it ends up being right? Like I just said, if it would had been so good with Harvey all along past its 72 hr forecast, it would had been making landfall near Tampico tomorrow night, on its 96 hr forecast from just 3 nights ago. It is garbage, and it has been garbage all season long developing every little disturbance or cloud cover over the Atlantic this season so far.

[Ntxw]

Stay on topic with models please.

Also please take a few moments to remove image tags when quoting a post with image(s) especially if a gif. We really don't need to see the same image 5 times in the same page particularly if they are very large.

Thank you.

[caneman]

CMC is absolute garbage past its 72 hr forecast, Sunday night, just 3 nights ago, it was still calling for Harvey to make landfall near Tampico when the GFS and Euro were already trending towards TX. It has been left bias since then.

How can you say it's garbage if it ends up being right? Euro and GFS arent always right. There is a reason the NHC uses a blend especially given all of the models rather poor performance this year.

How can you say it ends up being right? Like I just said, if it would had been so good with Harvey all along past its 72 hr forecast, it would had been making landfall near Tampico tomorrow night, on its 96 hr forecast from just 3 nights ago. It is garbage, and it has been garbage all season long developing every little disturbance or cloud cover over the Atlantic. [/quote]

Monday at 5 the GFS had it on the border and Euro upper central Texas coast hooking N.E. we'll see what plays out. Too much flip flopping in these models this year. Enough to drive one crazy. These are drastic swings in these models in a relatively short period of time. I don't ever recall a year with so much uncertainty in models. Looking at models tonight it could be back in Mexico. I guess the overnight flight and models will hopefully give more certainty?!

[msp]

NAMs all shifted west. Landfall just south of corpus now Still waiting on 3km to finish rolling out

[South Texas Storms]

NAMs all shifted west. Landfall just south of corpus now Still waiting on 3km to finish rolling out

Looks more in line with the 18z GFS now.

[ronyan]

NAMs all shifted west. Landfall just south of corpus now Still waiting on 3km to finish rolling out

You mean the Category five NAM?

[Steve]

NDG, you can't cherry pick. CMC had it from almost Day 1 with a little bit of a break when it took 92L into the Gulf. But GFS and Euro were the true garbage. Once in a while a run might show a system or give a hint. But If you say, "For the last couple of days" or whatever, that's kind of ignoring the point. I'm not looking to defend the CMC but still have way too much. But if it was up to the Euro or GFS, two little bumps in the isobars passed by sometime earlier this week. No, I don't think so. And that was run after run after run after run after run. Oh there's a storm. But then no there isn't.