ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Irma was shy on satellite before... now that the P-3 has arrived it's spreading her wings. Not good.

[Aric Dunn]

yep

If it continues this it will be at the bottom of all the guidance by morning.. not.good if that happens will be approaching 16 n

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

--------------------------------------------------------



Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated a 25 n
mi diameter eye and maximum SFMR-observed surface winds close to
100 kt. That value will be retained for the official intensity.
Central core convection is beginning to become a little better
organized on satellite imagery and the upper-level outflow is
well defined. Given the favorable environment, Irma is likely to
strengthen some more over the next day or two. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus.

Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, Irma has been
moving a little south of west or around 255/12 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge over the central Atlantic should steer Irma on a
west-southward to westward course over the next couple of days.
After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest is likely while
Irma nears the western portion of the ridge. There continues to be
a rather small cross-track spread in most of the track guidance
models, but there are some speed differences. The official track
forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance and is just
slightly south of the previous NHC prediction.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches or warnings may be required on Monday. Residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice
given by officials.

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.2N 51.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.7N 52.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.4N 59.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 21.2N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[eastcoastFL]

11Pm Advisory
17.2N 51W
961MB
115Mph
wsw 14 mph

[Blown Away]

Already S of 5pm track...

[wx247]

This southwestward motion has got to be concerning to folks in the NE islands and Puerto Rico. Anxiously awaiting the next forecast track. Thoughts and prayers are with those in the path.

[SouthFLTropics]

Water is gone at the Walmart in port orange and Daytona.

Bottled water was gone at Sam's Club in Port St. Lucie today as well.

[gatorcane]

[johngaltfla]

Already S of 5pm track...

Sadly, it would appear Paul Hebert has a chance to be right again. Ugh.

[northjaxpro]

Wow Irma looks like she is ready to really ramp up. Saved loop:

]

Yes she is big time. She is really going to intensify this evening.
Plus, Irma has drifted southwest over warmer sea surface temps as well.

[sma10]

You dont see that too often.. latest satellite is showing a the larger eye trying to clear out while.. what looks like an older midlevel circ lagging behind. This is clearly lopsided due to the ne shear. Its likely going to push this farther south than forecast.. ..

Again, I'm very concerned that Irma will not only affect DR, but may indeed go right over the island.

[Aric Dunn]

Already S of 5pm track...

16 north is the bottom line.. it would likely take it across PR but miss DR.. any lower latitude would likely put it over DR.. bad for DR good for bahamas and floruda..

[Jimsot]

Too close

Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.6N, 62.9W or about 27.4 miles (44.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 15 hours and 14 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 1:54PM

This southwestward motion has got to be concerning to folks in the NE islands and Puerto Rico. Anxiously awaiting the next forecast track. Thoughts and prayers are with those in the path.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Spent the day cutting sheetrock out of a coworker's house. What a mess. Amazing model forecasts of low pressure. I expect Irma to be a Cat 5 when it reaches the Bahamas. Maybe 140-150 kts. It's going to be bad for them, and very bad if it impacts the east U.S. coast, which is looking like an increasing probability. OK, going relax. I'm going to be very sore tomorrow...

Thanks for your analysis, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Do you buy the models trending towards the GOM and FL landfall, or do you expect a more northerly turn like the GFS indicates could occur?

I'm thinking SC/NC prime target area. Can't rule out FL - it may be a close call there.

Looks like I made the right move getting the Plylox clips

[fci]

If I'm reading this image correctly you can see how far the TS winds are from the center. Looks like 40+ knots well NE of the center.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

This is somewhat normal for a CV storm of this intensity. Once the shear relaxes, the storm will move more WNW near the Leewards and the flow with TS force winds becoming larger and more uniform. Sadly, if this impacts Florida, it will be a disaster as bad as Harvey. I pray it turns out to sea, but this is becoming a major concern.

Right. If it were to get to the central or Western Bahamas with a windfield as large as it's forecast to be there would likely be sustained TS winds at least on the Florida east coast.

Probably passing squalls with occasional gusts. We've been the west side plenty of times and it is surprisingly weak and you wouldn't know the Bahamas are being raked.

[weathaguyry]

I have some family located in Davie (Broward), what should they do to prepare? All comments are much appreciated!

[Blown Away]

11pm: 120H 09/0000Z 22.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

The 5pm 5 days position was 23N/73.5W... W & S adjustments...

[Blown Away]

I have some family located in Davie (Broward), what should they do to prepare? All comments are much appreciated!

Go to Storm2k Hurricane Prep page...

Water, batteries, medicine, and gas until watch/warning... If Irma doesn't come you didn't waste money... Take inventory of you home shutters/protection..

[johngaltfla]

I have some family located in Davie (Broward), what should they do to prepare? All comments are much appreciated!

Go to Storm2k Hurricane Prep page...

Water, batteries, medicine, and gas until watch/warning... If Irma doesn't come you didn't waste money... Take inventory of you home shutters/protection..

HOWEVER,

Some serious advice.

Make sure their insurance is up to date and standards. These storms can shock either way with a sudden move NE, N, or sadly West. Don't just look at the motion, watch the cone. Do not let your family become complacent. IF Irma were to hit with 20" of rain in Davie, that's like 40" in some other places as it is barely above sea level (like my west coast). Have a plan and don't plan to ride it out if a direct hit appears 2 days later.

And P.S. - What harm does it make to make a hotel reservation that you can cancel in Dothan, AL or Macon, GA 7 days in advance? Just sayin'....

[eastcoastFL]

This is somewhat normal for a CV storm of this intensity. Once the shear relaxes, the storm will move more WNW near the Leewards and the flow with TS force winds becoming larger and more uniform. Sadly, if this impacts Florida, it will be a disaster as bad as Harvey. I pray it turns out to sea, but this is becoming a major concern.

Right. If it were to get to the central or Western Bahamas with a windfield as large as it's forecast to be there would likely be sustained TS winds at least on the Florida east coast.

Probably passing squalls with occasional gusts. We've been the west side plenty of times and it is surprisingly weak and you wouldn't know the Bahamas are being raked.

I'll certainly take that.