ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Right. If it were to get to the central or Western Bahamas with a windfield as large as it's forecast to be there would likely be sustained TS winds at least on the Florida east coast.

Probably passing squalls with occasional gusts. We've been the west side plenty of times and it is surprisingly weak and you wouldn't know the Bahamas are being raked.

I'll certainly take that.

Let me be perfectly clear; thinking you will be fine because you are "just on the west side" is not only stupid, but dangerous. EVERY STORM IS DIFFERENT!!! NO HURRICANE IS NOT DANGEROUS!

[johngaltfla]

Right. If it were to get to the central or Western Bahamas with a windfield as large as it's forecast to be there would likely be sustained TS winds at least on the Florida east coast.

Probably passing squalls with occasional gusts. We've been the west side plenty of times and it is surprisingly weak and you wouldn't know the Bahamas are being raked.

I'll certainly take that.

Don't.

TS Colin last yar was supposed to be a big nothing with squalls only. I had a 40' section of oak tree on my garage barely missing the living portion of my home AND lightning taking out my cable box, and other electronics despite protection. Add into that local flooding and "squalls" are nothing to be dismissed as wind gusts can reach 70 mph easily.

[Blown Away]

Lowest Latitude Predicted By Past Few NHC Forecasts:
11pm: 16.5 (Sunday Night) NHC has Irma dropping father down...
5pm: 16.8
11am: 16.4
5am: 16.5
11pm: 16.5 (Saturday Night)
5pm: 16.8
11am: 17.1
5am: 17.0
11pm: 16.8 (Friday Night)

*** A few Mets on Storm2k have said the lower Irma goes in latitude delays the WNW turn and increases Irma affecting NE Caribbean & CONUS...

[eastcoastFL]

Probably passing squalls with occasional gusts. We've been the west side plenty of times and it is surprisingly weak and you wouldn't know the Bahamas are being raked.

I'll certainly take that.

Don't.

TS Colin last yar was supposed to be a big nothing with squalls only. I had a 40' section of oak tree on my garage barely missing the living portion of my home AND lightning taking out my cable box, and other electronics despite protection. Add into that local flooding and "squalls" are nothing to be dismissed as wind gusts can reach 70 mph easily.

What I meant was I'd certainly take a TS squalls over a cat 3/4/5 coming ashore. I'm not diminishing the danger at all. But I'd much rather have that than the alternative.

[Blown Away]

Some deep convection popping around eye... About to cross 17N...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Some deep convection popping around eye... About to cross 17N...

I have a feeling by the same time tomorrow this thing is going to look like a monster.

[Evil Jeremy]

My Labor Day activities have been updated: Count & replenish inventory. You can be sure the South Florida media will be all over this starting tomorrow morning, and it's always good to beat the masses.

We won't get a really good idea where this is going for a couple more days. The Gulfstream recon mission tomorrow night will help immensely. The continued shifts to the west have me remembering Ike's continued shifts below Florida. On the other hand, the 11pm forecast cone can be interchangable with the following cone from Hurricane Frances:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/gr ... 0604W5.GIF

I hope PR and the Leewards are ready.

[JaxGator]

Wow Irma looks like she is ready to really ramp up. Saved loop:

]

Yes she is big time. She is really going to intensify this evening.
Plus, Irma has drifted southwest over warmer sea surface temps as well.

The trend has not been our friend. I hope the Islands and PR have been preparing accordingly (preparing for the worst, hoping for the best) and remain vilgent. Same for the Bahamas. Northjaxpro, NWS thinks we could see rain with windy conditions for next Saturday and Sunday based on the recent model runs (so far). We thankfully have a few days for it to change. My folks and I have been stocking up as a precaution. In the meantime, hope y'all have a good Labor Day.

[Aric Dunn]

few more images before it expires... it is likely moving more 245 from the first fix to the recent sat image.. if anyone would like to do the numbers..

[Blinhart]

That's a big jump from Tuesday night to Wednesday night, did they forget to change the speed or type in the wrong speed instead of 15 MPH they put 25 MPH into the computation, because that is a huge jump.

[ObsessedMiami]

If that five day track verifies, even if it does the magic NNE turn some models have been forecasting, I don't see how SFL could avoid some effects from Irma.

My opinion and not in the least bit scientific.

[eastcoastFL]

Some deep convection popping around eye... About to cross 17N...

Wow look at those storms starting to blowup near the center. She's starting to feel that warm water now!

[sunnyday]

i have never seen water be gone this far ahead of a storm!

[eastcoastFL]

My Labor Day activities have been updated: Count & replenish inventory. You can be sure the South Florida media will be all over this starting tomorrow morning, and it's always good to beat the masses.

We won't get a really good idea where this is going for a couple more days. The Gulfstream recon mission tomorrow night will help immensely. The continued shifts to the west have me remembering Ike's continued shifts below Florida. On the other hand, the 11pm forecast cone can be interchangable with the following cone from Hurricane Frances:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/gr ... 0604W5.GIF

I hope PR and the Leewards are ready.

It's eerie how similar that Frances track is!

[ronyan]

https://s26.postimg.org/6r1gejwy1/023739_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

That's a big jump from Tuesday night to Wednesday night, did they forget to change the speed or type in the wrong speed instead of 15 MPH they put 25 MPH into the computation, because that is a huge jump.

It only needs to travel 15.75 mph between those points. 378 miles / 24 hours.
http://boulter.com/gps/distance/?from=1 ... +W&units=m

[Blinhart]

https://s26.postimg.org/6r1gejwy1/023739_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

That's a big jump from Tuesday night to Wednesday night, did they forget to change the speed or type in the wrong speed instead of 15 MPH they put 25 MPH into the computation, because that is a huge jump.

It only needs to travel 15.75 mph between those points. 378 miles / 24 hours.

Looked at lot larger.

[eastcoastFL]

i have never seen water be gone this far ahead of a storm!

I was thinking the same thing. It was gone yesterday in my local store and then again today. Hopefully folks will get out there tomorrow and do their shopping. I can't imagine there will be much left later in the week.

[mrbagyo]

Eastern Bahamas - North of Hispaniola - i think that would be the real sweet spot for Irma to blow up.

[ObsessedMiami]

Channel 7 in Miami showing impressive restraint @11:30 newscast. Hype machine is getting waxed and buffed for tomorrow perhaps but low key tonight

[eastcoastFL]

Updated Irma Track Map from the Navy has the east coast of Florida from From treasure coast west to Lake Okeechobeans and south to the keys in the cone now:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,