ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Watching the Weather Channel and it sounds like everyone is just confused as all of us on what Harvey will be doing. That damn eclipse messed everything up in the tropics (sarcasm). They are now saying a Cat 4 is definitely not out of the question. So the question now is if he never makes landfall until after the turn to the N/NNE/NE. Yes I know a lot of the models are showing a small loop over land but what happens if that small loop is actually offshore?

[Dave C]

What can save the CONUS this time from a major landfall? Dry air intrusion or inner-core dynamics? Maybe this will turn out like IKE and bombs out pressure-wise but the windfield expands?

Ike never seemed to resolve its eyewall replacement cycle all the way across the gulf till landfall. still had 2 eyewalls at landfall... crazy storm!

[tropicwatch]

Looks like pressure down to around 968mb.

It was there but now it is gone. hmmm

[KWT]

What can save the CONUS this time from a major landfall? Dry air intrusion or inner-core dynamics? Maybe this will turn out like IKE and bombs out pressure-wise but the windfield expands?

Ike never seemed to resolve its eyewall replacement cycle all the way across the gulf till landfall. still had 2 eyewalls at landfall... crazy storm!

Often these strong systems struggle once they get their eyewalls wrecked, they just can't pull it back together and it seems to happen so often as well. Often the models overdo the development on the other side as well as they seem to find it easier to model the system pulling itself back together. Usually they end up just having multiple eyewalls instead.

[artist]

Live broadcast from Corpus Christi
http://www.kristv.com/category/292861/live-stream

[ROCK]

already at 968MB wow

[lrak]

Will the ULL over Eastern Mexico have an affect on its track? It looks like it's gaining strength.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Are you kidding? Pic?

[Soonercane]

already at 968MB wow

Dang getting a bit nervous here in Central Texas (from a wind standpoint the rain was always going to be a problem with the projected track).

[MaineWeatherNut]

Where are you guys seeing 968mb? I am only seeing high 970s.

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

9 mb in an hour ?

[Aric Dunn]

Hehe.. up one mb lol

[AJC3]

Gang,

Please keep the OT chit chat stuff confined to the chat room, PMs, or some other outlet, and not the forums. The mods/admins are pretty much in "storm mode" right now, meaning the chaff posts are being deleted without notice.

Thanks.

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't see where 968 mb is coming from. The latest VDM was 978 mb. For the first time, it at least temporarily leveled out a bit. Starting to look really good on satellite though.

[KWT]

I don't see where 968 mb is coming from. The latest VDM was 978 mb. For the first time, it at least temporarily leveled out a bit. Starting to look really good on satellite though.

Yeah the system kind of had a slightly less impressive look a few hours ago with a little gulp of drier air and less convection in the N eyewall, but convection soon blew up again and so I suspect once the eye pops out we will see a quick drop through to 940s.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that happy little eye

[tolakram]

Looks like shear is increasing a bit, not sure if it's enough to keep strength down or not. Very little outflow on the SW side of the storm.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=20&quality=92

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/900813288514170881

[Blinhart]

Is there a chance that this will drop down to the 880 pressure range, or will it stay above 900? I know a pressure of 900 would be catastrophic and could cause this system to bomb out even more than expected, but if somehow it drops below 900 I think this will be the most costly storm in history.