ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Taylormae]

I fully understand we're still some days out from knowing anything as close to certain as models and tracks can get. But with all the west shifts I am getting extremely nervous. My last hurricane was Ivan (Im in Pensacola)and that was pre-children. I am very nervous to go through a hurricane with three relatively young children.

As much as I wish I could keep needed items all year long that just isn't feasible due to space. ANYWAYS! Sorry for the blubbering!

While I was at Walmart today I noticed almost both sides of the water aisle were nearly empty.
So what I'm wondering and would love some insight from some hurricane veterans - approximately what day (IF the models continue to shift our way) should I venture out to track down needed items?
The thought of facing a strong hurricane with children sends my brain into a hizzy.

[brghteys1216]

I live across the street from Sea World, and on very windy days you can hear the cable on the Observation Tower that pulls the vehicle to the top smacking the tower itself and it's such a chilling sound. Can't imagine how it would sound in strong Cat 3 winds. I'm on the ground floor of a 3 story apartment that's surrounded by trees. Think we may go elsewhere during Irma should she decide to come here.

[Aric Dunn]

here it comes.... nice pretty eye will be coming very shortly...

[brghteys1216]

Wow that truly is shameful scaremongering.

[bob rulz]

Irma starting to get that "fist" look on IR.

[JPmia]

Yeah that's right, we have a weather lady with this name: https://twitter.com/thebettydavis/status/904569993479761920

[Blinhart]

This is silly and utterly unacceptable. Deliberately fear-mongering and the epitome of irresponsible journalism for the sake of grabbing attention from those suspectible. Appalling...

It is sad, but at one time models did show that so they weren't lying.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is silly and utterly unacceptable. Deliberately fear-mongering and the epitome of irresponsible journalism for the sake of grabbing attention from those suspectible. Appalling...

It is sad, but at one time models did show that so they weren't lying.

The thing is, this was published 5 hours ago, during the southwesterly shift of the models... And it's wrong nonetheless

[Hurricaneman]

This is silly and utterly unacceptable. Deliberately fear-mongering and the epitome of irresponsible journalism for the sake of grabbing attention from those suspectible. Appalling..

It is sad, but at one time models did show that so they weren't lying.

The thing is, this was published 5 hours ago, during the southwesterly shift of the models... And it's wrong nonetheless

Trash journalism and a complete bad joke

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Back to the topic, deepening convection developing over the CDO. Possible bout of strengthening after this.

[chaser1]

I fully understand we're still some days out from knowing anything as close to certain as models and tracks can get. But with all the west shifts I am getting extremely nervous. My last hurricane was Ivan (Im in Pensacola)and that was pre-children. I am very nervous to go through a hurricane with three relatively young children.

As much as I wish I could keep needed items all year long that just isn't feasible due to space. ANYWAYS! Sorry for the blubbering!

While I was at Walmart today I noticed almost both sides of the water aisle were nearly empty.
So what I'm wondering and would love some insight from some hurricane veterans - approximately what day (IF the models continue to shift our way) should I venture out to track down needed items?
The thought of facing a strong hurricane with children sends my brain into a hizzy.

Though most Floridians have heard the mantra "have a hurricane plan", most do not. Understandably, many people might be new to the state and realize the potential risk nor fully grasp the level of discomfort that occurs following the effects of a hurricane (let along the potential impact and damage caused by a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane). My recommendation right now, for those living in South or Central Florida and if planning to "stay put" in their home should Irma make landfall or closely approach..... calmly make some phone calls and upon finding stores well stocked with water, batteries, extra cell phone battery bank/chargers, etc - go buy these items as if you were told that the risk is imminent. It may not be convenient to go out and buy first aid supplies, surplus canned foods, baby supplies, gas in gas tanks, cash on hand (since ATM machines will not work without electric), water, etc. but that is what having a plan is all about. Furthermore, the last thing one wants is to feel trapped with a hurricane fast bearing down but without ample supplies to last at least a week. Being in that position with small children only results in a tremendous around of greater stress and obviously that much greater risk.

[NotSparta]

Irma has always had trouble keeping an eye on visible, gets one, then BAM! Mowed down by convection. This time, though, the deep convection signifies that Irma may be beginning to intensify as waters get warmer and mixes out dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

Back to the topic, deepening convection developing over the CDO. Possible bout of strengthening after this.

oh its coming shortly.. //

[eastcoastFL]

This is silly and utterly unacceptable. Deliberately fear-mongering and the epitome of irresponsible journalism for the sake of grabbing attention from those suspectible. Appalling...

Is that the new tower with a hurricane graphic over it? That is absolutely DISGUSTING and offensive!

[Blinhart]

Back to the topic, deepening convection developing over the CDO. Possible bout of strengthening after this.

And Recon isn't suppose to be in there for a few more hours, could find pressure down to 940 and winds around 130MPH by then.

[eastcoastFL]

Back to the topic, deepening convection developing over the CDO. Possible bout of strengthening after this.

oh its coming shortly.. //

Looks like she's at about 16.8 by now and diving.

[psyclone]

With regard to evacuations, county EOC's in florida evacuate based on storm surge potential. your evacuation is called based on elevation. the only structure evacs called for due to wind are mobile homes. otherwise you shelter in place. (I realize Monroe county may differ). you cannot just move a whole metropolitan area in 2 days. that doesn't work. Here in Pinellas county, people in evacuation zones are encouraged to shelter with people in the county in non evac zones...again because there is insufficient infrastructure to get everyone out. Find a sturdy building on high ground, don't to drive across the country because unless you leave early, you're going to be screwed. After Harvey, we are prone to what I refer to as the Rita syndrome, where people were so traumatized by Katrina, masses of them attempted to unnecessarily leave for Rita and caused gridlock and chaos. EOCs should be attempting to prevent a repeat. All of this is moot if we can get the storm pointed elsewhere but it's useful to keep in mind when big threats emerge.

[chaser1]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

The GFS would be the absolute worst case scenario imaginable.

Almost 6 million in the Miami metro (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm) as of 2014. I know some folks would stay behind, but could you imagine an exodus of that many people north? There's only four highways out of South Florida - I-95, the Turnpike, US 27 and I-75.

I don't even want to think about that. And thats not to mention the extra 6+ million people that are between Tampa and Orlando.

I'm in the process of moving and just looked at the updated GFS. Very alarming, though not particularly surprising. I've been anticipating the broad scale high pressure bridging between the W. Atlantic and the E. Conus. Hey, how knows? Irma might even slip south of Florida on future runs. For now though, I'd say that a very serious threat exists for a strong Cat. 4 hurricane to strike one or more of the north-easternmost Leeward Islands and possibly Virgin Islands. To wrap one's head around the fact that Andrew was the 3rd lowest pressure land-falling hurricane in the US with 922 mb., and to imagine that the GFS could possibly be correct with forecasting a Florida landfall at 984 mb????? That is completely mind-numbing.

[northjaxpro]

The media frenzy that is about to occur! The stores everywhere are going to be jammed. Ii hope all of you have completed your pre p s. If you have not, you may better get every thing done today on this holiday to get it done NOW!!!

This is serious as a heart attack now getting preparations done!!

[txrok]

for those asking about preparing - it can't hurt anything - just buy what you normally use, but buy extra and stock up on a few of your emergency supplies - especially your meds, candles, batteries. Start formulating 2 plans -- one to stay - and the other to 'go'. If you do decide to go, plan your route and leave early. If nothing happens, you get a short vacay. Also, if u plan to book a hotel someplace, you can do so in advance and not have to pay if you cancel - generally within 24 hrs. You can always talk to them about that. The worst thing you can do is 'nothing'. Start looking at low lying valuables in your home and put them up and away. Wherever it hits, plan on no power and no water - if you have them, then it will be a plus. Prepare for the worst/Pray for the best. IMHO, from TX Gulf Coast. P.S. Don't forget about the elderly and their special needs, and the special needs of children to keep things pleasant and non-threatening for them.