ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2301 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks like its going to come into central florida or scrape it then the carolinas

Looks like the CMC model from earlier.
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2336
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2302 Postby cajungal » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

Was just starting to feel better last night on the gulf coast.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2303 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Steve wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Wait what just happened?!?


The next sequence of the model ran. 2 days left and it's bearing down on SF on a west heading. :flag:

What run was I seeing that had this east of Florida?? I just got completely dumbfounded!


Probably the 00Z. This is big and bad and 925mb on the low resolution European. So Cat 4 minimum possibly Cat 5 bearing down on South Florida with 24 hours to go to see if it landfalls or turns up.
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2304 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:55 pm

one thing for certain.. no trough anywhere to pick it up and out.. may slow down..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2305 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

If that cut-off low forms in the Lower MS River Valley area beyond hr 192,it may bring a southerly upper level wind flow to pull Irma up along the Florida East Coast . This is a possibility.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2306 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Gah, double


Very much like the CMC...Got that Floyd feeling again!!!
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 763
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2307 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Image

Stalling?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 763
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2308 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Nevermind.. last image

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2309 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:one thing for certain.. no trough anywhere to pick it up and out.. may slow down..

Potentially another major stalling in 30+ SSTs, fantastic.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2310 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

Remember my comment about it coming in east?

I like my crow with ketchup. Thank you.
6 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2311 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

heading towards carolinas. interesting run.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20161
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2312 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

Last second recurve

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2313 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2314 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

EURO: "To be CONTINUED..."
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2315 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:58 pm

Lifting up at 240 without hitting the breaks and at 920mb heading up just offshore with a giant high north of it. No way it gets out but looks devastating if you factor in what would actually happen in that pattern.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20161
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2316 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:58 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2317 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:58 pm

tolakram wrote:Last second recurve

Image


I don't think it will recurve from there Mark...No trough to sweep it out. The Carolinas will take it on the chin if it was to run further.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20161
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2318 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:59 pm

12z run

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10252
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2319 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:00 pm

That is a life changing event if it comes on shore... Ugh
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2320 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:00 pm

tolakram wrote:Last second recurve

Image
dont see it, high was building back in
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests