ATL: IRMA - Models

[sma10]

Quite many of the GFS members have come way west now into florida and the gulf..

Correct. Looks like the GFS is in a bit of conflict - by my count 7 of the 20 members directly affecting Florida.

[KWT]

Recurve is recurve, does not indicate a miss, just indicates it's finally started recurving. Regardless, it does not matter because it's all fantasy at this point.

Its NOT a recurve on this run, it gets picked up by the upper trough but a recurve usually suggests an east of north motion occuring, this is not going to be happen with the upper profile like it is.

[Blown Away]

Last second recurve

I don't think it will recurve from there Mark...No trough to sweep it out. The Carolina will take it on the chin if it was to run further.

Well now. Not liking the looks of that. My solace is that it is just one run 240 hours out. We have not had a storm that strong in that position with a blocking high for a long time in NC. But there is quite a bit of model agreement though 3-5 days so folks here will be keen on models at the current 96 hour official forecast point.

If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't think it will recurve from there Mark...No trough to sweep it out. The Carolina will take it on the chin if it was to run further.

Well now. Not liking the looks of that. My solace is that it is just one run 240 hours out. We have not had a storm that strong in that position with a blocking high for a long time in NC. But there is quite a bit of model agreement though 3-5 days so folks here will be keen on models at the current 96 hour official forecast point.

If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow

My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.

[gatorcane]

I would rather be in the bullseye of a 240 hour ECMWF run instead of being just a near miss here in SE Florida - because more than likely it will shift some (potentially a lot) off that track being in the long-range and with the GFS ensembles showing quite a number of ensembles headed towards Florida...

Wow that is a big eye opener here in SE Florida

12Z CMC similar to the ECMWF track bug slightly west:

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well now. Not liking the looks of that. My solace is that it is just one run 240 hours out. We have not had a storm that strong in that position with a blocking high for a long time in NC. But there is quite a bit of model agreement though 3-5 days so folks here will be keen on models at the current 96 hour official forecast point.

If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow

My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.

If that verifies, the cape fear would start getting TS force winds on Monday the 11th and it would go downhill from there. Depending on speed- which looks like it would be slowing based on the ridging, that would push massive amounts of surge into the intra-coastal estuaries. That angle and wind vector would be catastrophic for wind, surge and flooding...Glad its only a model. Not to mention already raking the bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC Ensembles appear to shift west

12z



00z

[crimi481]

That last Euro model run may be a trend - more s. and w.. eliminating re curve and brings Gulf in play. Strong ridge above it.?

Not a pro

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903692396462051329

[gatorcane]

HUGE shift west by the JMA and look how strong and big this storm is? For a low-resolution model that is impressive:

[SouthFLTropics]

Another look at the JMA

[Weatherboy1]

Definitely has more of that Floyd feel/look in these latest model runs. We're still pretty far out in time, but the fact most models at least agree on a storm that will be both intense and larger in area than we've seen recently is concerning. Now nothing else we can do but see how the modeling and patterns evolve over the long weekend

[Ivanhater]

Pretty big shift SW in both operational and ensembles today. Euro ensembles will be interesting

[SouthFLTropics]

Pretty big shift SW in both operational and ensembles today. Euro ensembles will be interesting

Ironically yesterday's 12z Euro ensemble very much resembles todays operational.

[caneman]

Interesting shift. Normally this will turn around the Bahamas. I'll worry more here in Florida 120 hours out.

[gatorcane]

Another view of the 12Z GFS ensembles with a cluster showing west turn into Bahamas and Florida and another cluster recurving east of Bahamas:

[BYG Jacob]

Everything is shifting west right now, this is really not looking good.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensembles look to have shifted a bit northeastward compared to the 0z run.

[RL3AO]

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DIqaZ9PV4AAtDnw.mp4

Euro ensembles through 192 hours from Ryan Maue.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903704826575560707




Looking better for Puerto Rico today.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro control run looks to be a recurve out to sea.