ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Well at least for the time being Harvey is behaving himself and pretty much right on track per the more reliable models... not good for those in harms way of course.... but at least they can get prepared as best they can.. sure hope those in evacuation areas get the heck out... this surge will be a killer for sure... water can do a tremendous amount of damage.. low bridges can be completely wiped.... Katrina wiped out two major bridges on the coast... water hits it, gonna be gone!

[davidiowx]

man hope it goes inland far enough..NHC following the EURO...

The 4am 12hr spot was 24.0N/93.6W and the 5pm position is 24.7N/93.9W, Harvey slightly faster than predicted...

And quite a bit further north, versus west

Wow yea.. More of a NNW motion it seems..

[NDG]

[GCANE]

Drop in the NE Eyewall

[whatacane]

Just Woundering if this can miss corpus and make it up to Matagorda?

[Frank P]

The 4am 12hr spot was 24.0N/93.6W and the 5pm position is 24.7N/93.9W, Harvey slightly faster than predicted...

And quite a bit further north, versus west

Wow yea.. More of a NNW motion it seems..

Dang, might be good for Corpus Christi, but not for areas farther north... and that will affect tonight's model runs as well if it continues... and perhaps even more time over the Gulf... amazing...

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2017 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 24:37:42 N Lon : 93:49:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.9mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.7

Center Temp : -58.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[Red eye]

man hope it goes inland far enough..NHC following the EURO...

The 4am 12hr spot was 24.0N/93.6W and the 5pm position is 24.7N/93.9W, Harvey slightly faster than predicted...

In my opinion I think that the faster forward motion will run it inland quicker (if it stays on current path) and it will stay longer before feeling High Pressure and exiting back into gulf. This could help reduce the wind effects of the second landfall.

Disclaimer:
I am only a novice, but am nuts about weather.

[whatacane]

And quite a bit further north, versus west

Wow yea.. More of a NNW motion it seems..

Dang, might be good for Corpus Christi, but not for areas farther north... and that will affect tonight's model runs as well if it continues... and perhaps even more time over the Gulf... amazing...

So nnw iss more plausible with a stronger storm. who was saying on here Matagorda ?

[South Texas Storms]

man hope it goes inland far enough..NHC following the EURO...

The 4am 12hr spot was 24.0N/93.6W and the 5pm position is 24.7N/93.9W, Harvey slightly faster than predicted...

In my opinion I think that the faster forward motion will run it inland quicker (if it stays on current path) and it will stay longer before feeling High Pressure and exiting back into gulf. This could help reduce the wind effects of the second landfall.

Disclaimer:
I am only a novice, but am nuts about weather.

Yep I agree. I think the faster north this storm tracks, the further inland it will get.

[tolakram]

SLIDER 1min view.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=880.5&y=797.5&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[txwatcher91]

Eye clearing out fast, hot towers exploding and CDO expanding fast in southern semicircle. I still stand by my sub 920 by tomorrow morning prediction. Cat 5 very possible imo.

[Frank P]

I have lost two homes to hurricanes... Camille and Katrina... and I really hate for anyone to have to go through such a catastrophic life changing event... I really feel for all those who will be seriously impacted by this storm... and it looks like it will be thousands upon thousands...maybe millions... the MS coast still after 12 years after Katrina has many empty lots on the beach... but tracking these storm is so absolutely amazing, interesting and exciting, even with all the terrible consequences they bring... that is why we are on this forum... we don't want to see any city destroyed... but its a way of life living in the tropics... and I would rather track them to see what is in store for me than to rely on someone else's information... NO ONE has to die if they evacuate out of harms way... houses and materials are just stuff, and can be replaced and rebuilt even better down the road... I know from experience, get out if you are told to evacuate and take with you your most prized possessions! Good Luck TX and God Speed for all involved!

[Cunxi Huang]

Eye is clearing out. Some hot towers explode around the southeastern part of the eye.

[KWT]

Eye clearing out fast, hot towers exploding and CDO expanding fast in southern semicircle. I still stand by my sub 920 by tomorrow morning prediction. Cat 5 very possible imo.

Yeah still got a nice presentation in the inner core despite a slight dry moat around the outer part of the inner eyewall. Still getting some nice convective blow ups in the eyewall and that may help to finally close off the eyewall with a ring of intense convection that will help push this system to the next level (eg cat 3/4)

[whatacane]

Eye clearing out fast, hot towers exploding and CDO expanding fast in southern semicircle. I still stand by my sub 920 by tomorrow morning prediction. Cat 5 very possible imo.

where and what track do you think it will take?

[bohaiboy]

Local Houston News had a segment on the Texas Medical Center flooding during Allison. They made a statement that the new flood prevention system is designed for a 500 year flood. Well this might just be year 501.

[Andy_L]

what time will the next plane be IN the system?? anyone know?

[tolakram]

Just like that it's getting a nice symmetrical look back.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[txwatcher91]

Eye clearing out fast, hot towers exploding and CDO expanding fast in southern semicircle. I still stand by my sub 920 by tomorrow morning prediction. Cat 5 very possible imo.

where and what track do you think it will take?

I personally think something very close to the Euro and NHC forecast will transpire. A slow crawl up the coast after hitting near Corpus Christi.