ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Air column now nearly completly saturated.

[wxman57]

Kind of surprised with only 60% during five day time frame.

I'm not surprised. If they went higher, at least in the 48hr time frame, they'd have to start potential tropical cyclone advisories, as the system will be affecting land within 48 hrs. I'm sure that fact will govern how high they go within 48hrs. I think I'd go 60/90 now.

I still think they will hold off PTC advisories until genesis is almost certain (at least 90 within 48 hrs).

When I met with them in April, they said that they would be quite "cautious" at first when issuing PTCs, meaning not until they were fairly certain development would occur within 36 hrs.

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups now firing over PR and DR.
TUTT weakening.
Expect to see a poleward outflow channel to kick in.
90L already has a good UL Divergence.

[lrak]

I see a fast swirl at about 15N 76W, is that the center?
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[GCANE]

Looking at some of the small rising Cu Nims to the west of the circulation, it looks like west winds are nearly at the surface.

[lrak]

I can't believe how large it's grown today. From the northern tip of SA to the top of the Central-Caribbean

[Hammy]

Quite impressive today. I wasn't expecting it to get this organized yet, though for some reason I'm always surprised at how these waves come back after escaping the central Caribbean, despite having seen it so often.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure falling in the western Caribbean. Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril, Jamaica at 4pm reported a pressure of 1011mb. This is 1.2mb's lower then yesterday's pressure at the same time and lower than anytime after that report.

[lrak]

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2015/08/06/35th-anniversary-of-hurricane-allen/ Scooby is saying "ruh roh" a little north of were 90L is but sure looks like him. Allen was my first Hurricane Swell I almost drown lesson learned check your leash before heading out into 10 feet seas. Never found my board after it broke off. I thought I was a gonner.

[Siker]

GFS much more organized before the Yucatán, 1007mb TS by 48 hours.

[ROCK]

um I would watch for center reformation in this early stage...js

[ROCK]

The Euro appears to be initializing the storm too far to the south. Once we actually have a closed area of low pressure for the models to initialize from then we'll have a much better idea of where this is headed.

agree with this

[cycloneye]

18z GFS stronger in BOC than past runs.

[lrak]

18z GFS stronger in BOC than past runs.

and the high pressure over S. TX has decreased as well.

[lrak]

um I would watch for center reformation in this early stage...js

wow could it be a replacement about 100 miles north?

[tropicwatch]

Kind of looks like the circulation might be consolidating closer to the large area of convection.

[GCANE]

Nice tower 13.5N 77.5W.
Firing close into the LLC.
Looks likely this will continue to strengthen overnight.
TPW and UL Outflow all improving.

[Hammy]

If you watch around 12N/77W the low level flow earlier was out of the south, now it's from the SW-WSW so it seems like a LLC might be trying to form near 14N.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Barring some last minute southward shift, this is probably going to have ample time to develop into a named storm prior to the Yucatan, and it may be near or at hurricane intensity while making landfall in central Mexico.

[MGC]

90L has continued to get better organized today. 8pm TWO should bump up the odds of development considerably. Would not be surprised if recon finds a TD or TS tomorrow.....MGC