ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro at 144 Hours vs. 18z GFS at 138 Hours

The GFS ridge is stronger yet the system is still that much farther north? That is what I am skeptical about.

That seems to be due to the GFS hanging on to the ULL that was to Irma's NW. The Euro didn't do that.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like it may have an escape route this run. It is already moving NW it looks like after LA. It is also NE of 12z position at hour 138.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=vort850_uv200&runtime=2017090118&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=300

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Eastern Troughs have been unusually strong this summer/spring, as have the Western Ridges: thus the persistent heat waves and the wildfires out west.

[Alyono]

trough very strong. Could easily steer this into the coast

[RL3AO]

Stronger trough cutting off over SE US. Curious to see if the GFS brings it to New England again.

[otowntiger]

I don't see why she would be making a solid NW turn seeing the map, but then again, I am not a pro-met, but I do understand enough to be scratching my head...

Look at the tilt of the trough and ridge. WNW movement makes perfect sense. Now, that doesn't mean I think the GFS is right.

yep recurve city. I continue to strongly believe that this thing will re-curve well east of the US. Most of the models are now saying it and climo and statistics scream it as well. Lesser Antilles Islands look to get a scare though.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I don't see why she would be making a solid NW turn seeing the map, but then again, I am not a pro-met, but I do understand enough to be scratching my head...

Look at the tilt of the trough and ridge. WNW movement makes perfect sense. Now, that doesn't mean I think the GFS is right.

yep recurve city. I continue to strongly believe that this thing will re-curve well east of the US. Most of the models are now saying it and climo and statistics scream it as well. Lesser Antilles Islands look to get a scare though.

9-12 days out it's wayyy too early to jump to conclusions.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't see why she would be making a solid NW turn seeing the map, but then again, I am not a pro-met, but I do understand enough to be scratching my head...

Look at the tilt of the trough and ridge. WNW movement makes perfect sense. Now, that doesn't mean I think the GFS is right.

yep recurve city. I continue to strongly believe that this thing will re-curve well east of the US. Most of the models are now saying it and climo and statistics scream it as well. Lesser Antilles Islands look to get a scare though.

You did see the CMC and the Euro earlier right???

[BYG Jacob]

I don't see why she would be making a solid NW turn seeing the map, but then again, I am not a pro-met, but I do understand enough to be scratching my head...

Look at the tilt of the trough and ridge. WNW movement makes perfect sense. Now, that doesn't mean I think the GFS is right.

yep recurve city. I continue to strongly believe that this thing will re-curve well east of the US. Most of the models are now saying it and climo and statistics scream it as well. Lesser Antilles Islands look to get a scare though.

Except, most of the models show a landfall

[SouthFLTropics]

I think Tropicaltidbits is stuck!

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro at 168 Hours vs. 18z GFS at 162 Hours - MAJOR DIFFERENCES

[AxaltaRacing24]

Faster

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ridging returning north of the cutoff trough, which is interacting with Irma. Not sure how this is going to play out?

[otowntiger]

That seems like a pretty strong trough for early September isn't it?

[stormreader]

Stronger trough cutting off over SE US. Curious to see if the GFS brings it to New England again.

Storm looks too far north there. At that point there is (and has been) continued significant ridging to its north. The trough has definitely been squeezed and is no closer to Irma than it was earlier when it had more depth to it. I don't know. I think Irma may continue on that more southerly trek on the last Euro run. Could very well be a slowing as it approaches S Fl with the trough exerting a marginal influence as it perhaps fills in. After that you could get the push west again toward S Fl or the Fl Straits.

[AxaltaRacing24]

That seems like a pretty strong trough for early September isn't it?

Very strong.

[Alyono]

trough going negative

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is @240 miles N of the 12z Euro @168hrs...

[AutoPenalti]

trough going negative

Ridge is winning the battle, holy cow.

[stormreader]

Might be a good time to check with what's happening in the Pacific basin. Clue us in on relative strengths of troughs and ridges. Help give an idea of westerly motion or lack thereof.