ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

andrew housing had major problems due to really shoddy new construction, if you have an older home you are most likely best to shelter in place

Where I am is suicidal in this type of strong surger...Think Bolivar and Mississippi coast...Our house is 1987 but withstood Charlie pretty good...



Our only hope is a continued westward trend but we will still be on the NE quadrant if that happens...



This is the real deal...Track will probably lock now...Full evacuation preparation...

[GCANE]

COAMPS is forecasting Irma to go to Cat 5 in 36 hrs as she make the turn to the WNW.

[FLeastcoast]

andrew housing had major problems due to really shoddy new construction, if you have an older home you are most likely best to shelter in place

Where I am is suicidal in this type of strong surger...Think Bolivar and Mississippi coast...Our house is 1987 but withstood Charlie pretty good...



Our only hope is a continued westward trend but we will still be on the NE quadrant if that happens...



This is the real deal...Track will probably lock now...Full evacuation preparation...

both of my sons and their families live in Cape Coral...it looks like that is where Ventusky is predicting a hit..Is that correct? the models are showing a hit near that area now?

[jlauderdal]

andrew housing had major problems due to really shoddy new construction, if you have an older home you are most likely best to shelter in place

Where I am is suicidal in this type of strong surger...Think Bolivar and Mississippi coast...Our house is 1987 but withstood Charlie pretty good...



Our only hope is a continued westward trend but we will still be on the NE quadrant if that happens...



This is the real deal...Track will probably lock now...Full evacuation preparation...

you have major surge issues on sanibel with the the right angle of approach...i was over there 4 weeks after charley and it was messy to say the least..good luck

[Big Easy Breeze]

GFS suggests a Donna-like nightmare track for us...All these years on the board saying "Donna-like track" and here we are looking at the real thing coming true on the models...This household is now under hurricane emergency status and today will be spent getting ready...Track could still change but there's no sense not preparing for the worst...This is no Charlie...This will be a surger...We're in the "A" zone 300 yards from the beach...





.

not quite an emergency at my place but i did pick up 5 cases of water this morning, they had about 1/2 their stock...my advanced preps will ensure that water goes unused for this event...


this is a good day to stock up on water, you can always use it later and avoid massive lines or worse no water...stay safe...southerly route shredder in play, if that doesnt work someone in the continental united states has a good shot at a major event..be smart, stay safe

also, they arent going to evacuate southern florida even if its a cat 5, as the houston mayor pointed out many times there are too many peeps and they have a better logistical setup in houston then sofla....many houses in sofla are like the bahamas, solid concrete reinforced steel construction like mine...i had a hurricane inspection done 15 years to save money on insurance and the inspector said, this house can easily go to 140 without risk of coming down and he wasnt speculating because look at older houses in the islands that have stood up to major hurricanes, roofs not as strong but consider how far out cat 3-5 winds extend its not that far, there is no reason to evacuate because of wind, surge is a different story

andrew housing had major problems due to really shoddy new construction, if you have an older home you are most likely best to shelter in place

Unless your roof is a concrete solid monolith piece and is afixed hard to the walls of your home, the structural integrity of the roof will be comprimised and you will find yourself inside solid concrete, or brick walls, without a roof. The roof is the first to go with intense winds.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar data is available again.

[GCANE]

Kermit just made a pass thru the eye.
Should get a Vortex soon.

[Hurricaneman]

Kermit just made a pass thru the eye.
Should get a Vortex soon.

Ewrc in progress it seems

[Michele B]

I'm in the Cocoa area about 2 miles from the coast and I have two small kids. No idea if I should evacuate out of Florida or stay put. I guess time will give us a clearer answer but on Thursday/Friday everything might be a parking lot.

I would think. By Tuesday/Wed you'll have a clear enough picture to make a good
Decision

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/904672904973086721

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another center pass should be available soon, but here was 6:27:55am EDT:



Credit: NOAA-AOC

[Chris_in_Tampa]

7:42:56am EDT:



Credit: NOAA-AOC

[euro6208]

Dvorak still stuck at 5.0. Goes to show how valuable recon is. I wonder them typhoons!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IRMA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

[GCANE]

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

[Hurricaneman]

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

Moving west or north of due west based on that

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:03Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:42:11Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 52°36'W (16.7833N 52.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 532 statute miles (856 km) to the ENE (62°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,640m (8,661ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 112kts (From the E at ~ 128.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,953m (9,688ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,341m (10,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW/N (349°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 34kts (From the S at 39mph)

[GCANE]

[Hurricaneman]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:03Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:42:11Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 52°36'W (16.7833N 52.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 532 statute miles (856 km) to the ENE (62°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,640m (8,661ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 112kts (From the E at ~ 128.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,953m (9,688ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,341m (10,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW/N (349°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 34kts (From the S at 39mph)

Confirmed ewrc and when that completes I could see a run at cat 4 status

[weathaguyry]

God bless anyone who ends up gettting caught into Irma's path, with the southward trends, she looks to be getting close to the NE leewards, and PR, and possibly the Bahamas/Cuba down the the road. I really hope that all the people in these areas are taking this as a big threat, and are preparing appropriately. My thoughts and prayers are out