ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

I really do think this will be a SoFla event unfortunately. Not based on anything concrete of course, but I just feel like our luck has really run out.

Anyways, I'm already (as many in Miami) preparing supply-wise just in case. Flashlights, water, batteries, etc. My thinking is that if Miami is under the gun with a consensus from the models by Wednesday (as a Cat 4 or 5 landfalling), I'm sitting down with my family and starting to pack important things and figuring out where to evacuate to. Then Thursday/Friday would be the time to leave (after making sure everything at our place is secure). Not sure if that would be too late though...

As far south as you are, yeah, you'd want to leave earlier if you are determined to do so. Thursday, I'd say. As soon as the local ProMets start "warning" people that they may want to think about voluntary evacs, EVERYONE will hits the roads!

Try to stay off the main routes, too. Maybe think about going out to 27 and up, or the 'pike, or even 441 up and over to Okeechobee, then jump on up to 27. I'd stay as far AWAY from Interstates as possible, as that's where most everyone else will figure to make good time, but if 3 million people try to do that, you're not going anywhere!

[hohnywx]

Pressure dropping like a rock right now...

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904696903627104257

[weathaguyry]

I'm not liking the westward trend. Could well hit south FL and then the Carolinas. Difficult to tell where the north turn will occur. Eastern Gulf not out of the picture.

Do you think that the threat to the Mid-Atlantic/ Northeast has significantly decreased, or do you think it may be possible for this to have a Donna like track and ride up the East Coast?

[weathaguyry]

Pressure dropping like a rock right now...

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904696903627104257

Winds will probably start to increase soon too

[SouthDadeFish]

Irma is clearly going through an eyewall replacement cycle. The secondary eyewall is evident on radar and flight-level winds:



The impressive part about this EWRC is that the central pressure continues to drop, similar to Hurricane Harvey.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

9:13:42am EDT:

[NDG]

[otowntiger]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

Isn't that norm for this storm? It seems like she is constantly undergoing an ERC. Why is she never happy with the one she has? Just like a woman - never happy with her current interior decor and always trying something new, and can't make up her mind,lol!

[Blown Away]

Tracks of hurricanes passing near the NHC's 96 hour day position of 21N/72W... All options on table but the angle from here suggests between Miami/Straits...

[Jimsot]

Those are just stunning pictures. Amazing technology. We spoke to friends on Anguilla this morning. Everyone gets it and are ready. Historically it's interesting that everyone is talking about a 'Donna' track. That is the storm in 1960 that finally convinced Anguillians to switch to concrete houses and no more stick built. I was in a NYC school watching the storm outside as Donna passed across Long Island. I had never heard of Anguilla, but many years later I would build a house there and stay for 10 years. I don't even know why I am recounting all this, I guess I am uptight for everyone down there.

This year we will be able to monitor storm progress with much more accuracy thanks to GOES16. THey already have a 1min floater on it.

Visible
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=995&y=877&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

IR
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=995&y=877&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[robbielyn]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

Isn't that norm for this storm? It seems like she is constantly undergoing an ERC. Why is she never happy with the one she has? Just like a woman - never happy with her current interior decor and always trying something new, and can't make up her mind,lol!

hey I resemble that comment lol and changing our minds is our prerogative.

[otowntiger]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

I wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes its first run at a strong cat 4 or cat 5 after this EWRC.

Yeah, but what about the next EWRC? She's bound to decide to do another one just before she starts taking off. It seems that the EWRC's are continual. All kidding aside, is that frequency normal?

[ObsessedMiami]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

[AutoPenalti]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

Very strong words from Norcross, but we are a day or so from that crucial timeframe, can't blame him.

[HurricaneEric]

I really do think this will be a SoFla event unfortunately. Not based on anything concrete of course, but I just feel like our luck has really run out.

Anyways, I'm already (as many in Miami) preparing supply-wise just in case. Flashlights, water, batteries, etc. My thinking is that if Miami is under the gun with a consensus from the models by Wednesday (as a Cat 4 or 5 landfalling), I'm sitting down with my family and starting to pack important things and figuring out where to evacuate to. Then Thursday/Friday would be the time to leave (after making sure everything at our place is secure). Not sure if that would be too late though...

As far south as you are, yeah, you'd want to leave earlier if you are determined to do so. Thursday, I'd say. As soon as the local ProMets start "warning" people that they may want to think about voluntary evacs, EVERYONE will hits the roads!

Try to stay off the main routes, too. Maybe think about going out to 27 and up, or the 'pike, or even 441 up and over to Okeechobee, then jump on up to 27. I'd stay as far AWAY from Interstates as possible, as that's where most everyone else will figure to make good time, but if 3 million people try to do that, you're not going anywhere!

Haha! I just had a convo 5 minutes ago with my family and we all agreed 27 would be what we take outta here. Appreciate the advice!

[johngaltfla]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

And if you've ever been around Miami 2-3 days before a storm is projected to hit, frenzy is not a strong enough word. Godspeed to all my friends in the islands, batten down and I pray you're okay.

[Blown Away]

Irma moving a wobbly due W hugging along S side of 17N... NHC has Irma down to 16.6 before making WNW turn over next 24 hours... It seems now the faster Irma moves W the farther W she makes it before this modeled turn??? Wow, these little subtle differences seem to have big impacts...

[RL3AO]

Do the Hurricane Hunters have a secondary Caribbean location to fly out of if (when) St. Croix can't be flown out of.

[curtadams]

Minus the sexist reference, Irma has been going through near-constant eyewall replacement cycles, with each new eye lasting only a few hours tops before some new asymmetry obscures it. Several of the "monster majors" have had constant multiple wind maxima (IIRC Katrina had 3 as she was coming in) so multiple eyewalls is just a feature of some strong storms these days and perhaps Irma is one of them. If so, that will reduce the intensity of her worst winds a bit although it won't help with surge or rain.

[GCANE]