ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS/ENS showing a <980mb storm at 210hrs is intriguing indeed...

[joey]

Close your eyes Floridians!

strongest ive seen yet whoa

[Hurricane Andrew]

And, just for kicks, the ENS have a significant Jose signal following the same path a few days later.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Close your eyes Floridians!


strongest ive seen yet whoa

It's ridiculous

[ColdMiser123]

GFS/ENS showing a <980mb storm at 210hrs is intriguing indeed...

Even worse, a bunch of the members show future Jose making landfall within a week of where Irma did.

[AxaltaRacing24]

And, just for kicks, the ENS have a significant Jose signal following the same path a few days later.

It's almost like this season is punishing us for 12 years of relative calm.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS/ENS showing a <980mb storm at 210hrs is intriguing indeed...

Even worse, a bunch of the members show future Jose making landfall within a week of where Irma did.

Luckily we are still so far out

[Happy Pelican]

Hahahaha the GFS wipes me from the face of the earth.

Me too, my friend. I'm about a half mile from where the roller coaster went into the ocean, on a little island between the barrier island and the mainland. I just saw the GFS AMD NEARLY THREW UP.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF a hair slower but essentially in the same location as 12z

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z HWRF is going nuts with Irma. Down to 923 mb at 108 hours.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hahahaha the GFS wipes me from the face of the earth.

Me too, my friend. I'm about a half mile from where the roller coaster went into the ocean, on a little island between the barrier island and the mainland. I just saw the GFS AMD NEARLY THREW UP.

Well, we are still in the D8-D10 range. I expect the 00z suite will do something different, lol.

[RL3AO]

For the first time, the GFS and Euro ensembles are pretty much in agreement in 8 days. A major hurricane near the Bahamas.

[Raebie]

Hell, might as well just put a map of the east coast on my dartboard right now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Close your eyes Floridians!

What in the wide world of sports is going on around here?? That's crazy. Ironically, now I'm feeling more comfortable that we are being targeted at 9 plus days away.

[ColdMiser123]

A significantly more robust WATL ridge is the primary culprit in bringing almost all members into the United States.

[1900hurricane]

It's interesting to see the GEFS spread considerably to the southwest in the medium range when compared to the operational run. The GEFS envelope is generally thought to be a little under-dispersive in many cases, but the operational run isn't even in the envelope.

[SunnyThoughts]

So what would make the operational run sooooo much farther North than the ensembles?

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF about a degree further north...Looks like it will spare the islands a direct hit this time. Going bonkers on intensity at 927MB, 120 Knots

[Nimbus]

Close your eyes Floridians!

A lot at stake with this storm maybe they are bringing in the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA)? They used the supercomputers there to process all the Keyhole satellite data back in the day.

[Cunxi Huang]

This is a dramatic change from 18z GFS ensemble. Most members agree a landfall.