ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Steve
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2541 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:37 pm

Frank P wrote:For example, the sea wall in Biloxi is about 10 feet above sea level.. if I get a storm surge of 10 feet at nominal tide, water will be at the top of the sea wall.. additionally you must factor in the waves as well.. in Biloxi we usually get small 2-4 waves during storms due to our very shallow continental shelf along the MS coastal waters, and that by itself gives us a very high storm surge multiplier, which makes our surges so dang high even in minimum storms...


Sounds like those oceanography years paid off. :). You know things are going to be crazy when you go to a NWS forecast office and see all the reds purples greens and yellows on the map. You also know when you're preoccupied when a storm is piecing together over Florida and barley give it a look. I was more in for 92L than 91L at the beginning. But I about forgot about it until I went to current hazards for the nation (weather/NOAA) and saw the flood watch up for much of south Florida. I kind of figured that once Harvey was toward its end game (late this week), something would go.
http://www.weather.gov

Otherwise Harvey's intensification was faster than I thought by a good 12-18 hours. It won't be too many more hours until impacts begin. There's a lot of rain in Cuba, Florida, Texas, Louisiana and on the Yucatán associated with outflow and Outer banding. A little humid, mixed clouds and slightly breezy here.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2542 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is starting become more ominous.. pretty solid eyewall now and showing some deeper convection increasing around it.

Yeah I'm guessing winds are around 90 to 100 MPH
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2543 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:38 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
ROCK wrote:

915MB 160mph? got a ways to go before that is a possibility...I am thinking high end cat3


Yes, we have a perfect combo of conditions for it to do that tonight. You have DMAX, highest TCHP ahead, a solid CDO forming now, and the core seems to really be heating up. Next step will be to see the eye suddenly clear out and a nice ring of red all around on IR. From there, I would expect very rapid pressure drops. I’m thinking of Rita and Wilma rapid pressure drops (but not as strong).


The coldest tops over the CDO have disconnected now compared to the past couple of hours. Typically in a major hurricane, those tops are round and connected with an eye feature in the middle.


Take a look at GOES 16 visible with rapid updates and you’ll see the CDO is in the beginning stages of formation. This is the final step that takes place before the eye clears out for good and we see it strengthen rapidly. Another 3-4 hours and it’ll be looking much different.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2544 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:38 pm

Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is starting become more ominous.. pretty solid eyewall now and showing some deeper convection increasing around it.

Yeah I'm guessing winds are around 90 to 100 MPH



Yep, my guess too. Pressure probably also around 970-972mb.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2545 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is starting become more ominous.. pretty solid eyewall now and showing some deeper convection increasing around it.


Well, we should know if he's held his own, or increased in strength soon enough. Won't be long for recon's first pass.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2546 Postby Cunxi Huang » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:40 pm

Newest radar image.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2547 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:43 pm

I'm prepping for a Cat 3/4 here, but hoping for a Cat 1/TS. Rather be safe than sorry.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2548 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:43 pm

Pressures so far 972mb winds @ 75kts?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2549 Postby hd44 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:43 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is starting become more ominous.. pretty solid eyewall now and showing some deeper convection increasing around it.

Yeah I'm guessing winds are around 90 to 100 MPH



Yep, my guess too. Pressure probably also around 970-972mb.


Ill go pressure 968
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2550 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:44 pm

I'll go with pressure around 965 and winds around 100 mph.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2551 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:44 pm

If you extrapolate that last reading out, the pressure is probably around 966 or so right now, but we'll have to see the next pass.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2552 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Pressures so far 972mb winds @ 75kts?


yeah,,... with that said.. pressure might be down to low 960's..

interesting..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2553 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:46 pm

Pressure likely below 970mb now. Could be seeing the restart of an intensification period with the most recent convective burst.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2554 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Pressures so far 972mb winds @ 75kts?


yeah,,... with that said.. pressure might be down to low 960's..

interesting..


Winds still lagging it seems.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2555 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:Pressure likely below 970mb now. Could be seeing the restart of an intensification period with the most recent convective burst.



this next set might have 90 plus kt winds and pressure below 965... earlier the pressure graidient was very sharp.. no reason it would not still be.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2556 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Winds still lagging it seems.


Watch for a quicker pressure drop and stronger winds as the convective burst wraps around the eye.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2557 Postby xironman » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:48 pm

It always takes time for winds to catch up with the pressure drops.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2558 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:48 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I usually use my blog to post on the WPac, but for those interested, I just completed an entry for Hurricane Harvey.

North Atlantic Tropical Analysis: August 24, 2017 - Harvey Special

Image


Reading over the current posts and bingo found this one, nails the situation completely.

Hard act to follow
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2559 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Pressures so far 972mb winds @ 75kts?

They havent made it to the center yet...next set will have it. I would have thought the winds would be higher too...but I am thinking that right now winds will be higher on SW side
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2560 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:49 pm

Yeah, Steve, for awhile I was more concerned about 92L as well. Thought Harvey would get buried down into Honduras. You just never know.
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