ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX AL092017
453 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This product covers SOUTH TEXAS

**HURRICANE HARVEY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Aransas, Calhoun, Kleberg, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, and
Victoria
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duval and McMullen
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bee, Goliad, Jim Wells,
and Live Oak

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 290 miles southeast of Port Aransas TX or about 300 miles
south-southeast of Port Oconnor TX
- 24.7N 93.9W
- Storm Intensity 85 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Harvey is expected to continue to strengthen as it moves
toward the Texas coast this evening through Friday. Harvey is
currently a Category 1 hurricane and is expected to reach Category
3 status prior to landfall. Tropical storm force winds are expected to
reach coastal areas of the Coastal Bend early Friday morning.
Hurricane force winds will be possible as early as Friday afternoon.

Heavy rainfall is expected through much of the area with rainfall
totals of 15 to 25 inches east of Interstate 37 with isolated amounts
around 35 inches possible. Lesser amounts are expected further west
and southwest. These numbers and locations are subject to change
depending on the exact location of landfall along the Texas coast.
Flash flooding is possible with these high rainfall totals. The
heaviest rains are expected to occur early Friday through Saturday
night and possibly into early next week.

Peak Storm surge inundation is generally expected to be 6 to 12 feet
above ground level from the north entrance of the Padre Island
National Seashore northward to Port O Connor. South of the north
entrance of Padre Island National Seashore storm surge is generally
expected to be 5 to 7 feet above ground level. Impacts would be felt
along the barrier islands and into the inland bays and waterways.
Isolated locations could see slightly higher inundation.

Tornadoes are possible as rainbands move onshore late tonight through
Saturday, especially north and east of the center of Harvey.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across the Middle Texas Coast and barrier islands. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous
small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore
and stranded.

Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the Coastal Bend. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the Brush Country.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across the Coastal Bend. Potential impacts
include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across the Brush Country.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
South Texas. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those under evacuation orders, leave as soon as practical with a
destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle well ahead of time. Be sure
that you take all essential materials from your emergency supplies kit.
Let others know where you are going and when you intend to arrive.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

The following locations have issued a MANDATORY evacuation:
- The city of Port Aransas
- Aransas County
- Refugio County
- San Patricio County

CHRISTUS Spohn Health System to close certain locations:
- CLOSED: Robstown, Northside, Westside, Padre Island, Freer,
Beeville, Dr. Hector P. Garcia, and Memorial Quick Care (Reopen
Monday, August 28).
- CLOSED: CHRISTUS Physician Group physician practices.
- ABBREVIATED WORK SCHEDULE: Promptu Clinics will operate a shortened
schedule on Friday, August 25.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical storm
force wind.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 730 PM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

[Jagno]

I'm prepping for a Cat 3/4 here, but hoping for a Cat 1/TS. Rather be safe than sorry.

The only way to prep or a Cat3/4 is packing your belongings in the camper, filling the propane and fuel and planning your route far north.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2017 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 24:48:39 N Lon : 94:34:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.2

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

CDO is pretty cold now. Soon as we get a warm spot, the numbers will shoot up.

[NDG]

[RL3AO]

Probably no changes to the advisory. 75 kts with a 110 kt peak is my guess. Maybe 80kts with the pressure since it's lower. The next 6 to 12 hours will probably decide if Harvey makes a run at cat 4.

[Frank P]

Sounds like those oceanography years paid off. . You know things are going to be crazy when you go to a NWS forecast office and see all the reds purples greens and yellows on the map. You also know when you're preoccupied when a storm is piecing together over Florida and barley give it a look. I was more in for 92L than 91L at the beginning. But I about forgot about it until I went to current hazards for the nation (weather/NOAA) and saw the flood watch up for much of south Florida. I kind of figured that once Harvey was toward its end game (late this week), something would go.
http://www.weather.gov

Otherwise Harvey's intensification was faster than I thought by a good 12-18 hours. It won't be too many more hours until impacts begin. There's a lot of rain in Cuba, Florida, Texas, Louisiana and on the Yucatán associated with outflow and Outer banding. A little humid, mixed clouds and slightly breezy here.[/quote]

I agree with ya 100 %... I was tracking 92L religiously and didn't even give 91L a thought until about Monday of this week.. what a crazy past 2 weeks, and looks like we might have another week or so for tracking if the Euro comes to fruition.. I think Harvey is Mother Natures way of trying to even out the fact that we have had no majors in 12 years.. perhaps she wants one to last the full week and strafe the living hell out of the TX and LA coast... take care

[Cunxi Huang]

goodness 970.8 mb.

234330 2457N 09417W 6963 02910 9708 +146 +110 134020 025 036 002 00

[hriverajr]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

[KWT]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2017 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 24:48:39 N Lon : 94:34:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.2

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

CDO is pretty cold now. Soon as we get a warm spot, the numbers will shoot up.

Interestingly just before that big blow up obscured the eye the raw numbers were up as high as 5.4, so yeah once an eye does pop out those numbers going to get into the high 5s I'd think.

[Alyono]

I'd say pressure is around 972-973mb based upon this recon pass, plus extra pressures from 700mb are typically too low

[tolakram]

[Kingarabian]

970mb seems to be the lowest on this pass. Probably with Xtrap it'll be 967ish.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

they doing circles in the eye again lol .

[KWT]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

Sure seems that way, I'm wondering whether the big convective bursts that keep triggering in the NW quad are helping to tug the center further west than the background synoptics would suggest?

[NDG]

I'd say pressure is around 972-973mb based upon this recon pass, plus extra pressures from 700mb are typically too low

I agree, but that is still a drop from earlier 978mb.

[Kingarabian]

CDO is pretty cold now. Soon as we get a warm spot, the numbers will shoot up.

Interestingly just before that big blow up obscured the eye the raw numbers were up as high as 5.4, so yeah once an eye does pop out those numbers going to get into the high 5s I'd think.

Yeah that's where ADT can be tricky. I preferably wait for the ADJ T's to follow suit before declaring an intensifying trend started by raw T's.

[Hammy]

Probably no changes to the advisory. 75 kts with a 110 kt peak is my guess. Maybe 80kts with the pressure since it's lower. The next 6 to 12 hours will probably decide if Harvey makes a run at cat 4.

Any chance at this point it can stay below Cat 3? Winds don't seem like they're catching up to the pressure drops yet.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

[Blown Away]

Movement looks WNW @300 degrees... Radar/Satellite gives appearance it will come in S of CC if current movement stays...