ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Current Irma Track From The Navy:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

All of South Florida in the cone now...

[RL3AO]

Current Irma Track From The Navy:

The Navy doesn't make forecasts in the Atlantic. That's just the NHC forecast on their map.

[eastcoastFL]

She's right on track

[eastcoastFL]

Current Irma Track From The Navy:

The Navy doesn't make forecasts in the Atlantic. That's just the NHC forecast on their map.

Do they just have her own version of the cone?

[Michele B]

I really do think this will be a SoFla event unfortunately. Not based on anything concrete of course, but I just feel like our luck has really run out.

Anyways, I'm already (as many in Miami) preparing supply-wise just in case. Flashlights, water, batteries, etc. My thinking is that if Miami is under the gun with a consensus from the models by Wednesday (as a Cat 4 or 5 landfalling), I'm sitting down with my family and starting to pack important things and figuring out where to evacuate to. Then Thursday/Friday would be the time to leave (after making sure everything at our place is secure). Not sure if that would be too late though...

As far south as you are, yeah, you'd want to leave earlier if you are determined to do so. Thursday, I'd say. As soon as the local ProMets start "warning" people that they may want to think about voluntary evacs, EVERYONE will hits the roads!

Try to stay off the main routes, too. Maybe think about going out to 27 and up, or the 'pike, or even 441 up and over to Okeechobee, then jump on up to 27. I'd stay as far AWAY from Interstates as possible, as that's where most everyone else will figure to make good time, but if 3 million people try to do that, you're not going anywhere!

Haha! I just had a convo 5 minutes ago with my family and we all agreed 27 would be what we take outta here. Appreciate the advice!

[joey]

Current Irma Track From The Navy:

The Navy doesn't make forecasts in the Atlantic. That's just the NHC forecast on their map.

is that what the new cone will look like tho thanks

[ObsessedMiami]

She's right on track

IMPRESSIVE FORECAST TRACK. right down the rails

[tarheelprogrammer]

If Irma runs over Cuba it should weaken the storm drastically before a Florida hit, correct?

[RL3AO]

Do they just have her own version of the cone?

Yeah. I think they use the same cone (which is absurdly large) for every basin in the world, but the forecast track and wind size is all NHC.

[eastcoastFL]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

What are your plans? Are the homes built to withstand high winds? Are there enough boats to evacuate? Do you personally have a plan for this scenario?

[knotimpaired]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

That's terrible you only have one shelter available. Surely they will open the schools despite the last experience. No possibility of hopping on the last boat out?

I've seen a lot of support for those on the islands here but please remember that there are many, many Floridians that are members here. I don't think anyone's forgotten about the impacts upon PR. Hope you are spared the worst of the storm.

The person selling tickets this morning at the ferry was selectively selling to only his friends. People were showing proof of residency and still denied tickets. Not to worry though, there are pictures and it is going viral on Facebook. He will not have his job for long.

[Michele B]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

Are the schools built more stoutly than your homes? If the house were well-built, I'd prefer to stay there.

During CHarley, our major shelter had its roof ripped off and had to evacuate 1500 people across the street to the high school in the middle of the worst of the eye wall. Weird phenomena, I know, and probably due to a tornado, but I'm just glad I didn't experience that, and just stayed in my own home.

[eastcoastFL]

Do they just have her own version of the cone?

Yeah. I think they use the same cone (which is absurdly large) for every basin in the world, but the forecast track and wind size is all NHC.

I agree it's pretty insane how large it is tho they do provide some different info than I find on the NHC maps which is interesting. It says right on top of the map that it's done in coordination with the NHC and NWS... I should've noticed that

[msbee]

Prayers and chants for everyone on tiny islands in The NE Caribbean.

[robbielyn]

what a big beautiful monster! love the GOES16!

[Blown Away]

12z Guidance...


06z Guidance...

TVCN did shift slightly N near Cuba and E near Florida... Let's see if this is a trend...

[northjaxpro]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

Very strong words from Norcross, but we are a day or so from that crucial timeframe, can't blame him.

In fairness to him, here is the rest of his post (only omitted a list of items to purchase)
"In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.
Review your plan and take the first steps"


wonder how the gas crunch due to Harvey will feed into any FL evacuations???

Well, Norcross is absolutely correct on urging people to start preparing now!! Now is the time to get any type of preparations that you have not done now completed. Time is extremely precious now. We are now inside of 7 days of potentially being impacted by this cyclone. The time to do is now. The only good thing to come away from the aftermath of Harvey is awareness. This is fresh on the minds of people thankfully of what these cyclones can do. it's going to get people out there, so the earlier you get your preparations done today , while you are off work on a holiday, is the best time to do it. We do not know exactly when evacuations may be needed and you know how long that process took during Floyd, so you can't take anything to chance. Whatever you have to do necessary to protect your life and to protect your love ones, and secure whatever you have, prepare now! This is a very fluid, but dangerous and serious situation and it potentially could be one of the most costliest tropical cyclones ever. Please listen to the advice to prepare now!

[1900hurricane]

Do they just have her own version of the cone?

Yeah. I think they use the same cone (which is absurdly large) for every basin in the world, but the forecast track and wind size is all NHC.

Their forecast cone also varies with the wind radii. A larger wind field will result in a larger cone.

[NJWxHurricane]

not trying to sound rude but if you know you are on a island why would you have shelters that can't even fit half the population? do they expect you to evacuate?

[RL3AO]

Their forecast cone also varies with the wind radii. A larger wind field will result in a larger cone.

Okay. That makes more sense. Always wondered why some of those WPac cones were so large.