ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BZSTORM]

Only way to learn is to ask. I've been following these boards off and on since Katrina wiped out my home in 2005. I've gotten pretty good at keeping up with NHC reports, and even reading a lot of Recon data (esp. Vortex info) but it's been pick up this and that when you can... I see a lot of "data" only pages, so I don't post on them, but the one set of data I would like to understand better is the box-setting of numbers that read across from left-to-right with several sets of numbers. Some I can guess indicate location (lat/long) and possible wind speeds (although not sure if sfc or fl) and atmospheric pressure in mb. but there's much more than that in this row of data, and I'd appreciate anyone who can help, giving me some detail on what these rows of data mean (if possible from left to right)

031000 1719N 06445W 6963 02357 9075 +215 +102 011002 022 030 001 00

I'm guessing the first might have something to do with time, possibly Z, obviously the next two data are coordinates -- I don't know what the next two sets indicate and I'm guessing that 9075 is atm. pressure of 907.5 mb. I have NO idea what the +215 and +102 indicate (possibly directional and/or SFC wind speeds?) and the next sets of data I am not sure of at all and would prefer not to guess. Any help is appreciated!

A2K

there is somewhere on Storm 2K the info but can't remember where the link is - as almost every year I ask same question, but I wrote it on piece of paper which I use. Anyway NHC has a document called National Hurricane Operation Plan PDF link below
http://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/FCM-P12-2017.pdf Chapter 5 is devoted entirely to the reconnaissance aircraft data missions. & Appendix G explains the message formats and data codes.
hope that helps

[Yellow Evan]

SFMR 108 supports 110 so no reason to go lower IMO.

[hurricanehunter69]

Maria has been moving WNW all day today. Check out the 700-850MB steering chart. Very interesting! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[AJC3]

Maria has been moving WNW all day today. Check out the 700-850MB steering chart. Very interesting! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

That steering layer analysis you linked to...



...is only valid for a TD, not a Cat 2 to cat 3 hurricane. Moreover, it's only a current snapshot.

When you use the proper steering layer, you get a completely different snapshot of what's going on.

[M_0331]

She has just been in a 5 hour loop per IR 1 km satellite. I have been watching her on Intellicast site.

[northjaxpro]

Maria has been moving WNW all day today. Check out the 700-850MB steering chart. Very interesting! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

I made an observation about this a couple of pages back. Maria had been moving more W-NW for almost the past 24 hours, ever since making landfall early yesterday morning on Puerto Rico..It almost seems like the cyclone wants to ride along and hug the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

Well. at least I see someone else has come along and observed what I have been noticing since yesterday morning.

[EquusStorm]

Boy, if the inner fragments ever clear out and the outer doesn't contract significantly, that's going to be a really big eye

[M_0331]

Yea, I just been watching her for hours. Was going WNW but since 0100Z, she just looping. I think per her shape, she wants to continue west but is bogged down. She is pounding PR & far east end of Dominican Republic with major rain bands. I missed your post Northjaxpro. Per the direction currents just posted by ProMet, she might be in a dead zone.

[aperson]

The hexagonal eye shape with the mesovorts rolling through is stunning http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 07-48-1-50

[northjaxpro]

Maria also moving very slowly currently.. Steering currents does not look particularly strong atm. She is forecast to move NW to eventually N by Saturday morning. Hope she follows guidance!

[bahamaswx]

Dvorak estimates are about to start going way up. Hints of WMG showing in the eye, and nearly surrounded by a solid ring of white again.

[lilybeth]

Dvorak estimates are about to start going way up. Hints of WMG showing in the eye, and nearly surrounded by a solid ring of white again.

2 questions if I may:

1 Does this mean she may be strengthening & or eyewall replacement?

2 If so, would it impact her direction at all? (if she strengthened)

Thanks to anyone who may answer & forgive me if these are silly questions. I'm still trying to learn.

[M_0331]

She is at 10° on CCW loop @0700Z. She is closing on the NE side of Dominican Republic when 0730Z loop gets to 6°.

[M_0331]

Dvorak estimates are about to start going way up. Hints of WMG showing in the eye, and nearly surrounded by a solid ring of white again.

2 questions if I may:

1 Does this mean she may be strengthening & or eyewall replacement?

2 If so, would it impact her direction at all? (if she strengthened)

Thanks to anyone who may answer & forgive me if these are silly questions. I'm still trying to learn.

1. Stronger 2. N/A

[Salix88]

Maria has been moving WNW all day today. Check out the 700-850MB steering chart. Very interesting! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

I made an observation about this a couple of pages back. Maria had been moving more W-NW for almost the past 24 hours, ever since making landfall early yesterday morning on Puerto Rico..It almost seems like the cyclone wants to ride along and hug the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

Well. at least I see someone else has come along and observed what I have been noticing since yesterday morning.

Let's hope she moves on NHC's projected track. It could be deathly for unprepared residents of the northern provinces, especially those were unwilling to evacuate and leave their homes in high risk zones. People in the North aren't expecting more rain and winds than when Irma passed a few days ago.

[lilybeth]

Dvorak estimates are about to start going way up. Hints of WMG showing in the eye, and nearly surrounded by a solid ring of white again.

2 questions if I may:

1 Does this mean she may be strengthening & or eyewall replacement?

2 If so, would it impact her direction at all? (if she strengthened)

Thanks to anyone who may answer & forgive me if these are silly questions. I'm still trying to learn.

1. Stronger 2. N/A

Thank you - I appreciate the answer. I have been on the boards here for a while now but I tend to just read rather than post so that I can try to learn.

[bahamaswx]

Turks and Caicos really at risk of taking the eyewall of both Irma and Maria.

[Salix88]

That eye is huge! I'm worried that this large eye feature might be expanding hurricane force winds further into DR territory, more than it was anticipated.

[northjaxpro]

That eye is huge! I'm worried that this large eye feature might be expanding hurricane force winds further into DR territory, more than it was anticipated.

Yes I agree!

Also, the inner core is looking better and better early this morning. Beginning to see deeper convection wrapping around that large eye. I think Maria may be gradually strengthening again.

[Hurrilurker]

Eye symmetry appears to be increasing rapidly.

Time for someone to ask if it's annular.