ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

Looks like the NHC is well south of the mean- north shifts in the official track coming?

Probably not. This is an example of the NHC using their expertise to adjust the forecast track a little differently than the models predict. It's one of the main reasons they usually beat the models in accuracy.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Latest COAMPS
Enthalpy Flux forecast shows a massive monster.
Huge ACE out of this one.

Can you give me a link to that model?

[Nimbus]

I mentioned it a few days ago but it got lost a bit. Research has shown that model skill is below average for a 5 to 7 day forecast near North America after a typhoon recurves in the Pacific.

Now that a rather interesting upstream reverberation. Specific to what longitude Pacific re-curves? I'd be curious what the teleconnection time frame might be for resultant impacts to finally ripple on over in our pond??

Makes sense that the polar vortex statistics would get shuffled with all the energy of a typhoon putting kinks in the jet stream.

Teleconnection in the form of a resonant influence on the polar vortex might offer some small advantage to weather models but I think we all tend to underestimate the amount of randomness there is in detailed weather modeling beyond 72 hours.

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS
Enthalpy Flux forecast shows a massive monster.
Huge ACE out of this one.

Can you give me a link to that model?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... cl=1&sec=1

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting that the GEFS Ensembles and mean track little by little have been shifting west since at least 00z last night.

[txrok]

If it happened to go into the Gulf - I think the people on US southern coast (TX, LA) will need a lot more time than that to evac all those displaced people - they are literally going to have to bus them out of the area. There are some folks who have not yet been home, my son included - and they also say that some of the flooding will not even go down for 10-14 days - which puts even more stress on a possible evacuation for the Houston area. The Brazos River has barely just crested and so much is still under water. Beaumont is in very bad shape with no water supply. I just pray for everyone down that way that it does not go that way at all -- and I surely don't wish it on anyone at all. I know it's not expected to head out to sea - but one can only hope and pray for the best for everyone. The US and Red Cross resources are reallllly spread thin right now. I would only HOPE that they are already prepping for something 'just in case', but I doubt it. This could be a giant mess that nobody is prepared to handle. They better get 'pre'-pared. Pre as in advance. It's not too early to PREpare.

Model skill is really only good to great about 3 days out, and that's assuming everything is fluid. 5 days maybe you put some weight to the Euro since historically skill scores that far out it performs better than other guidance in general. That's its wheel barrow and it's in the name (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast; ECMWF). Beyond that is little more than an educated guess at best.

[SapphireSea]

If it happened to go into the Gulf - I think the people on US southern coast (TX, LA) will need a lot more time than that to evac all those displaced people - they are literally going to have to bus them out of the area. There are some folks who have not yet been home, my son included - and they also say that some of the flooding will not even go down for 10-14 days - which puts even more stress on a possible evacuation for the Houston area. The Brazos River has barely just crested and so much is still under water. Beaumont is in very bad shape with no water supply. I just pray for everyone down that way that it does not go that way at all -- and I surely don't wish it on anyone at all. I know it's not expected to head out to sea - but one can only hope and pray for the best for everyone. The US and Red Cross resources are reallllly spread thin right now. I would only HOPE that they are already prepping for something 'just in case', but I doubt it. This could be a giant mess that nobody is prepared to handle. They better get 'pre'-pared. Pre as in advance. It's not too early to PREpare.

Model skill is really only good to great about 3 days out, and that's assuming everything is fluid. 5 days maybe you put some weight to the Euro since historically skill scores that far out it performs better than other guidance in general. That's its wheel barrow and it's in the name (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast; ECMWF). Beyond that is little more than an educated guess at best.

It is also important not to raise the alarms too early. I think the models still have quite a bit of time to deal with things also. Remember, intensity modeling is pretty garbage right now and it is very relevant to tracking in the mid-term to long-term. I also think the NAO is trending down to -s for a few days and then PREDICTED to return to positives.. However, it is likely it can also stay negative in conjunction to a trough system for some time. As a matter of fact I'm not really certain this is going to bend WSW to the degree seen in the models at all, even near term. The actual flow does not really support it.

[Steve]

Here is how NAM 12km handles the Upper Pattern over the next 3.5 days or so. It ends where the second trough swings down into the MS Valley but before it cuts off or lifts or establishes (whatever it ends up doing).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0200&fh=84

[WeatherEmperor]

Alright so rhe GFS starts in a few minutes. Any ideas what happens? Shift east? Shift west?


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[drezee]

Alright so rhe GFS starts in a few minutes. Any ideas what happens? Shift east? Shift west?


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If it doesn't move toward ensembles....i would be surprised

[AxaltaRacing24]

Alright so rhe GFS starts in a few minutes. Any ideas what happens? Shift east? Shift west?


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Shifting west but not sure how much.

[SunnyThoughts]

Considering those ensembles from last run, I think it probably shifts west/south. Maybe not to the extent of the ensembles..but farther south with landfall than 18z

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS int

[WeatherEmperor]

Alright here go. GFS initialized


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[floridasun78]

Alright so rhe GFS starts in a few minutes. Any ideas what happens? Shift east? Shift west?


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i think will west because been showing stronger high look mess over fl is Trough that will be pull out and high rebuild

[SouthFLTropics]

18 hours and quite a bit North from 18z

[AxaltaRacing24]

24 hrs

[pcolaman]

18 hours and quite a bit North from 18z

Look how deep the ridge is..

[SunnyThoughts]

Has the ridge been that far south in prior runs?.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Has the ridge been that far south in prior runs?.

Yes