ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

High Theta-E air has now pretty much wrapped all the way around Harvey.

What is this?? I don't think I have ever seen this, and what does it mean to an intensifying hurricane.

[Cunxi Huang]

Shear is incresing. It looks like a rapid intensification is unlikely now.

[NDG]

Being that overnight yesterday was Harvey's biggest improvement, I would look for the same thing this evening. I would expect a more impressive storm in 6-8 hours time.

Also I think when those storms start rotating on the east side that it could sway that center back to the north some. Although the general motion does look NW. I am not seeing much WNW movement. Maybe a brief second when those storms blew up on west side.

And again tomorrow night is when I am looking for rapid intensification.

I thought landfall was expected to be tomorrow night?

Landfall is supposed to be between 1 AM and 6 AM as it puts on its breaks, plenty of time to intensify as it makes landfall.

[Blinhart]

Shear is incresing. It looks like a rapid intensification is unlikely now.

That is not strong shear, have no problem seeing RI still being able to happen.

[ROCK]

shear is increasing RI is not likely now?? huh?? doesnt look like much shear too me but what do I know...

[Kingarabian]

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Shear is incresing. It looks like a rapid intensification is unlikely now.

That is not strong shear, have no problem seeing RI still being able to happen.

10-20 KTS of northerly shear cannot stop RI. If anything it improves outflow.

[Blinhart]

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

Looks more and more impressive. So I don't understand what you are seeing.

[NDG]

Shear is incresing. It looks like a rapid intensification is unlikely now.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc17/ATL ... -974mb.jpg
https://s2.postimg.org/qs16y81gp/20170824174419.png

Some times I have to disagree with their shear map, clearly shear is not that strong over Harvey, I would say 10 knots at the most.
Also the shear that it shows increasing near the TX coast that's Harvey's outflow as it expands ahead of it.

[Sciencerocks]

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

Yes, I am starting to think this comes in a lot like Dolly of 2008 with winds around 100-105 mph around the same general area.

[RL3AO]

High Theta-E air has now pretty much wrapped all the way around Harvey.

Moist tropical air has high theta-e.

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/9UokKU4.gif[img]

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

Looks more and more impressive. So I don't understand what you are seeing.

Its fine if it's only forecast to be a Cat.2. But the GFS is saying Cat.4 and the NHC is saying Cat.3. If so, the whole system needs to look impressive and it's clearly restricted to the south.

[Kingarabian]

Could be mid level shear.

[Blown Away]

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

Looks more and more impressive. So I don't understand what you are seeing.

Looks great for Cat 1/2 storm... Flattening out a bit to the W...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Is there some dry air entrainment? It seems the convection is being prevented from wrapping around on the north side.

Tend to think the eyewall is stretched to the ssw @500mb, when it tightens with full
alignment this system i think will explode.

[Blinhart]

http://www.katc.com/story/36213880/mand ... ron-parish

Now mandatory evacuations in Louisiana

[Kingarabian]

Recon flying back towards the center.

[GCANE]

High Theta-E air has now pretty much wrapped all the way around Harvey.

What is this?? I don't think I have ever seen this, and what does it mean to an intensifying hurricane.

Theta-E is a measure of how hot and moist the air is.
The higher the theta-e, the more intense a hurricane can become.

Here is a good explanation on theta-e being a precursor for rapidly intensifying TCs and how they influence development of towers.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes ... 138445.htm

Click to get the PDF

They also have a paper on Vortical Hot Towers.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes ... _21808.htm

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I agree that Harvey does look kind of ragged and I'm thinking this will likely peak at Cat.2.

[floridasun78]

i like new sat sat pic of storm are best i seen gave a lot detail of eye storm top