ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alanstover]

Just a note to our island friends to let you know our thoughts and prayers our with you.
(As another non-CONUS member, I know what it's like to feel forgotten!)

Best wishes to all and keep safe, everyone in the path of this storm!

[pcolaman]

Seems to have stopped losing latitude, at least for now. Hopefully it's reaching it's long-term W to WNW motion, as it would be better for the islands.

It's slight and may average out before next forecast point, but a bit N of the track...

Was just thinking,could we see the w-wnw movement come sooner than expected? Also my thinking was/is intensification probably wouldn't start until that westerly movement begun due to the shear the hp was inflicting on it. Perhaps the reason for it going up a little in strength now is because the hp has let up s little thus shear has gone down some as well. Any thoughts? IM

Are we already wobble watching?

[flamingosun]

WE are in an evacuation zone A. (We're on a barrier island, and our lot is less than 5' above sea level. The street is even lower by a foot or so.) Our county's evac centers are pretty basic... They call them shelters, and that is what they are - a place to shelter from the storm. In other words, you are provided floor space in a sturdy building and a roof over your head, and I assume,restroom access. That's about it,
If you plan on evacuating to a shelter, be sure and check your county's emergency website. For example, our county has SOME shelters that accept pets and some that do not, and regardless, you must bring your own sleeping provisions (Cot or air mattress, pillows and blankets, etc.) Although we saw Harvey evacuation centers feeding people and handing out dry clothing and personal hygiene supplies, not all shelters will be able to do this so plan ahead and get these items ready... at LEAST a three day supply. Don't forget a list of your doctors and all your meds. A two week supply of meds is recommended.
If you are bringing a pet (DO NOT abandon them at home!) don't forget their supplies - kennel, leash, food, dishes, treats, litter, etc.

[AutoPenalti]

It's slight and may average out before next forecast point, but a bit N of the track...

Was just thinking,could we see the w-wnw movement come sooner than expected? Also my thinking was/is intensification probably wouldn't start until that westerly movement begun due to the shear the hp was inflicting on it. Perhaps the reason for it going up a little in strength now is because the hp has let up s little thus shear has gone down some as well. Any thoughts? IM

Are we already wobble watching?

Yes, the islands have people on them you know.

[NJWxHurricane]

It's slight and may average out before next forecast point, but a bit N of the track...

Was just thinking,could we see the w-wnw movement come sooner than expected? Also my thinking was/is intensification probably wouldn't start until that westerly movement begun due to the shear the hp was inflicting on it. Perhaps the reason for it going up a little in strength now is because the hp has let up s little thus shear has gone down some as well. Any thoughts? IM

Are we already wobble watching?

it's called analyzing

[gatorcane]

[johngaltfla]

One more thing for my Florida neighbors who live inland. A lot of rivers are cresting here in SW Florida after the 18+ inches of rain we just got last weekend. If we get another 10"+ or God helps us 20"+, not only will there be coastal flooding, but due to the saturated ground a lot of inland flooding. Know your rivers, creeks, drainage areas and dam locations. This storm could be a much bigger problem than just surge and wind if it hits the state and slows down at all or continues to expand its rain/wind field. I'm going to have to evac to my inlaws if the path is anywhere near us as the rain last week put 2 feet of water into our streets and back yard. A hurricane would not only blow the trees down on the house but probably flood us out.

[Madpoodle]

If you plan on evacuating to a shelter, be sure and check your county's emergency website. For example, our county has SOME shelters that accept pets and some that do not, and regardless, you must bring your own sleeping provisions (Cot or air mattress, pillows and blankets, etc.) Although we saw Harvey evacuation centers feeding people and handing out dry clothing and personal hygiene supplies, not all shelters will be able to do this so plan ahead and get these items ready... at LEAST a three day supply. Don't forget a list of your doctors and all your meds. A two week supply of meds is recommended.
If you are bringing a pet (DO NOT abandon them at home!) don't forget their supplies - kennel, leash, food, dishes, treats, litter, etc.

Miami Dade has two pet friendly shelters, both of which require registration in advance with no guaranty they will have space..

[pcolaman]

Was just thinking,could we see the w-wnw movement come sooner than expected? Also my thinking was/is intensification probably wouldn't start until that westerly movement begun due to the shear the hp was inflicting on it. Perhaps the reason for it going up a little in strength now is because the hp has let up s little thus shear has gone down some as well. Any thoughts? IM

Are we already wobble watching?

Yes, the islands have people on them you know.

If your under a watch or warnings, you can bank on having serious conditions and need to be ready.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm surprised the windfield hasn't expanded. With the pressure dropping I imagine the winds will catch up later on.

[MGC]

Yet another track shift west at 11am....this is getting serious folks...hopefully the Gulfstream data will show a weaker ridge and a turn OTS. We shall see. Looks GOM bound....MGC

[Blown Away]

The next advisory should show the hard right turn beginning per the TVCN, unless the 12z models move farther W... Donna rounded the HP smoothly then had a decent sharp NNE turn, but nothing like the hard right these models show... I'm still going with a smooth WNW, NW, NNW, NNE, NE track, not WNW then N... It seems somewhere just E or W of, or over Florida...

[TheStormExpert]

I thought recon found a 125mph storm earlier this morning, why is the NHC going with 120mph?

[Mouton]

The 11AM advisory is out. Another bend to the west. N central Cuba would be dead center in the cone for Saturday morning. The more mountainous side of Cuba would be on the east side of the storm in the senario. This is not very dissimilar to earlier UK Met models which had the storm almost in the middle of the straits but a bit earlier. I do not recall many prior storm taking such a path toward Cuba so I guess time will tell how accurate that forecast actually is....it is after all five days out. We are due to receive much detail from the atmospheric runs over the continent to gauge the timing and strength of the trough so this five day has a pretty wide cone at five days.

Given all that, were this to get to that position, it will become a colossal worry for the entire area from the Upper Keys to New Orleans IMO and if it turns sharply to the North as many of the prior model runs have shown, it would put the entire Fl Peninsula in trouble. While the storm would be degraded a tad by the higher west side Island of Cuba, it will have time to regenerate over very warm waters as it begins its northward run IMO.

[Jelff]

Here is a Google + GIS map showing one of the latest georeferenced satellite images that is hosted by the Naval Research Laboratory. This image is wrapped in a KML file and therefore can be displayed on Google Earth.

The forecast track comes from NOAA’s nowCOAST team.

Map link: https://bit.ly/2gyZ04f

[psyclone]

The 11AM advisory is out. Another bend to the west. N central Cuba would be dead center in the cone for Saturday morning. The more mountainous side of Cuba would be on the east side of the storm in the senario. This is not very dissimilar to earlier UK Met models which had the storm almost in the middle of the straits but a bit earlier. I do not recall many prior storm taking such a path toward Cuba so I guess time will tell how accurate that forecast actually is....it is after all five days out. We are due to receive much detail from the atmospheric runs over the continent to gauge the timing and strength of the trough so this five day has a pretty wide cone at five days.

Given all that, were this to get to that position, it will become a colossal worry for the entire area from the Upper Keys to New Orleans IMO and if it turns sharply to the North as many of the prior model runs have shown, it would put the entire Fl Peninsula in trouble. While the storm would be degraded a tad by the higher west side Island of Cuba, it will have time to regenerate over very warm waters as it begins its northward run IMO.

Ike travelled over Cuba on a westerly heading after passing over Great Inagua.

[AdamFirst]

We wobble watching, ladies and gentlemen?

[ScottNAtlanta]

JBs video for today is on the Donna train. He is expecting a track into FL similar to Donna

[Mello1]

Very strong words from Norcross, but we are a day or so from that crucial timeframe, can't blame him.

In fairness to him, here is the rest of his post (only omitted a list of items to purchase)
"In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.
Review your plan and take the first steps"


wonder how the gas crunch due to Harvey will feed into any FL evacuations???

Well, Norcross is absolutely correct on urging people to start preparing now!! Now is the time to get any type of preparations that you have not done now completed. Time is extremely precious now. We are now inside of 7 days of potentially being impacted by this cyclone. The time to do is now. The only good thing to come away from the aftermath of Harvey is awareness. This is fresh on the minds of people thankfully of what these cyclones can do. it's going to get people out there, so the earlier you get your preparations done today , while you are off work on a holiday, is the best time to do it. We do not know exactly when evacuations may be needed and you know how long that process took during Floyd, so you can't take anything to chance. Whatever you have to do necessary to protect your life and to protect your love ones, and secure whatever you have, prepare now! This is a very fluid, but dangerous and serious situation and it potentially could be one of the most costliest tropical cyclones ever. Please listen to the advice to prepare now!

Well stated and if I may add, if folk are going to evac out, timing is key. I drove to Carbondale, IL for the eclipse and what normally is a 5 hr drive from Chicago took 12-1/2 hrs to get back; we had other friends who got back in 8 hrs. -- 2 days later. This was largely due to a 12 mile construction zone (IMO it could have been open; it was a re-pave job that was nearly finished) that had traffic down to one lane.

I would check now for where all of the road construction is and map out a route that minimizes impacts. If folk are going to use the Interstate system, the earlier you go, the better. If you take side routes, check for gas availability along those routes as well. Best wishes to all.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the 8am advisory ant current one this is heading due west at 16.8n